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Thread: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Here are some minor league performance trends that may have gone un-noticed.

    1. Gary Majewski is going good. In has last 10 appearances (starting April 20) has 12 IP, 2ER, 7K, 3BB, 10H and no extra base hits. Throw out April 20 and its 9 appearances for 11IP, 1ER, 7K, 3BB, 9H and no extra base hits. His last 5 appearances (starting May 1) 6.66 IP, 1ER, 4H, 7K and 1BB. He may be making himself marketable. If so, I hope the Reds deal him for some one younger. I just don't think he'll ever do well in Cincy.

    2. Adam Rosales last 10 games. 34 ABs, 11H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3BB. He is slowly climbing back to respectability after an real awful start. His OBP over that stretch is .378. He needs to start hitting for a little more power.

    3. Paul Janish is in a mini-hot streak. 8 for his last 16 with a 2B, 3B and a HR over his last 4 games. Over-all .294/.328/.445/.773. He may be a viable option as a defensive minded infielder with those numbers.

    4. Andy Phillips in his last 10 games - 41AB, 15H, 3 doubles, 3HR, 4BB. Overall he is at .316/.378/.469/.847. He has played 1B, 3B and DH mostly. He is looking like that RH bench bat with a little pop that the Reds are looking for. The fact that he can play 3B makes it an option IMO (3 first basemen is not ideal) time to DL or dump Javy or Ross and get Phillips up to the big team.

    5. Tonys Gutierrez in his last 10 games. 35 AB, 17H, 5 2b, 10BB. He is looking like he may have some prospect value. He's a LH bat who plays 1B. Overall he is at .327/.455/.439/.894. He needs more pop and a LH 1B isn't really a Reds need, but if he could get to AAA and get some ABs under his belt with carry-over success, he may be able to fill Hatte's role in 2009.

    6. Carlos Fisher's overall line looks awful mostly because of an outing April 16 where he gave up 5 ER in 1.333 IP. In his last 7 appearances starting April 22 - 11.666 IP, 11H, 1ER, 9K, 2BB. Three of the hits and one of the BB's came in his May 2 outing where he gave up the run over 2 IP. He looks like a guy who may be useful in middle relief to go multiple innings with a high GB % and a decent K rate.

    7. Jordan Smith this year. 56 IP, 1.45 ERA. 7/1 K/BB ratio.

    8. Denis Phipps last 10 games. 41AB, 18H, 5 2B, 1HR, 2BB. He has hit in all 10 games and had at least 2 hits in each of his last 7 games. .325/.352/.525/.877 for the season. This is a kid who has limited experience. He's 22. Do we have a monster developing?

    Feel free to chime in with others or comment on these. These guys are not talked about as much as some other prospects.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-11-2008 at 09:24 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Janish is looking more viable by the minute. From everything I've ready he's an excellent fielder and those numbers at AAA are respectable.

    Don't know if he'll end up as a RED, but looks like he'll end up playing SS somewhere in the majors.
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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    What does Jordan throw? I have heard that one reds scout called him the most improved pitcher in the system. Where is Daniel Dorn?

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    I continue to think that Janish and Danny Herrera should be on the fast track to Cincy. Maybe not immediately, but soon.

    Jerry Hairston is currently the infield backup for the Reds and I think Janish can provide superior defense and hopefully hit a little.

    I hope Bray is effective from the left side, but if not, Herrera never gives up runs. I note he did allow one inherited baserunner to score. I was shocked. He now has 10 Ks in 11 scoreless innings at AAA.

    This is a good thread because from time to time it is good to see which minor leaguers are hot. Jordan Smith has been pitching great all year. Right now he probably projects as a back of rotation starter or possibly even a reliever, but if he gets that K rate up a tad, he can do even better. Ground ball pitcher, never walks anybody. Just dominating at High A.

    I remember seeing Gutierrez at spring training a few years back and have always rooted for him. As a first baseman without lots of power, it's unclear where he fits in, but it's great to see him doing well at AA. His OBP is well over .400 and he has 25/19 walks to Ks. Hope he moves up to AAA in the second half of the season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-11-2008 at 09:24 AM.

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    I'd think people who have over the years made the case for Adam Dunn might want to make a similar case for Tonys G. Not that he's like Dunn, of course, but that he's an anomaly worth considering. I know the classic way of thinking about 1b is to have a power hitter, but can you really ignore anybody with a .455 OBP. And I've not looked back through all his earlier stats, but I have looked at them in the past, and his walk rate has been consistently and phenomenally high all through the minors. Are we, one might ask, looking at the solution to our leadoff problem without knowing it? If Bruce can play center, Votto can play left, and we can bundle Dunn/Griffey (both players and money) for somebody with some pop who can play right (or center), would it make sense to think of Tonys G. at first?

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Was anyone at the Dayton game yesterday? Keltavious Jones had an awesome game 1 (until the very last play, though they won on it when he threw to the wrong base and the runners ran themselves into the last out).

    He went 2-2, with 2 walks. He advanced on a wild pitch that bounced about 5 feet away from the catcher. Then he advanced to 3rd on a fly ball to LCF (caugth by the CF with momentum to 3rd). This guy is lightning fast. He made a nice leaping catch in LF. I was very impressed. Despite being < 5'8" 160 lbs, he has 3 HR's already. He will be 22 all year. His line:

    .344/.422/.552/.974. 12 bb/14 k.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Was anyone at the Dayton game yesterday? Keltavious Jones had an awesome game 1 (until the very last play, though they won on it when he threw to the wrong base and the runners ran themselves into the last out).

    He went 2-2, with 2 walks. He advanced on a wild pitch that bounced about 5 feet away from the catcher. Then he advanced to 3rd on a fly ball to LCF (caugth by the CF with momentum to 3rd). This guy is lightning fast. He made a nice leaping catch in LF. I was very impressed. Despite being < 5'8" 160 lbs, he has 3 HR's already. He will be 22 all year. His line:

    .344/.422/.552/.974. 12 bb/14 k.
    I like Jones OK, but not sure why he seems to be limited to LF/DH. Guys that are that small and generally speed guys need to play a more "exclusive" defensive position. LF is for big power guys who can't play D. Not sure his bat will play there.

    Anyone know about his defensive ability? Does he have instincts for CF? Does he have the arm for RF?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Drew Stubbs last 10 games:

    .111 avg, 36 AB, 4H, 2 2B, 4BB, 14 K, 1 SB

    If he wants to be a major leaguer, he's going to have to avoid these semi-regular slumps that he seems to be making a habit of.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Stubbs needs to cut down that strikeout rate of the last week and a half. Even with a line drive rate in the 30&#37; range you can't miss that often. Tomorrow he breaks out of it, just a feeling.

    Justin Reed has been on a tear lately. His last 10 games he is hitting .414 and slugging .862 while striking out just 5 times and walking 6 times. If he can keep his strikeout rate down, he is a real exciting player.

    Cody Strait is quietly having a great season in AA. .312/.364/.578 on the year.

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Quote Originally Posted by kfm View Post
    What does Jordan throw? I have heard that one reds scout called him the most improved pitcher in the system. Where is Daniel Dorn?
    I asked about Dorn on another thread and was informed he gashed his knee at Chattanooga sliding to catch a ball, requiring a bunch of sutures. Re-habing now at the Sarasota complex, probably working with Rookie-league trainees I'd guess, as I haven't seen any numbers for him playing for Sarasota. I also asked what happened to Petr Cech last year and was informed he supposedly had surgery of some kind. Anybody heard anymore recent news?
    Seeking others' opinions, does Mesoraco stay at Dayton with at least 2 other catchers there, or is his presence just to get him sharp until Pioneer league starts in late June? (Maybe that will be determined by how he performs until then).......What think ye?

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Stubbs needs to cut down that strikeout rate of the last week and a half. Even with a line drive rate in the 30% range you can't miss that often. Tomorrow he breaks out of it, just a feeling.

    Justin Reed has been on a tear lately. His last 10 games he is hitting .414 and slugging .862 while striking out just 5 times and walking 6 times. If he can keep his strikeout rate down, he is a real exciting player.

    Cody Strait is quietly having a great season in AA. .312/.364/.578 on the year.
    Strait certainly is. He's outperforming Saun Cumberland (.309/.409/.511/.920) who has been a relatively hot commodity on this board. Strait is a RH bat. He seems to be sitting frequently with Cumberland, Henry and Szymanski all doing well. Dorn will be back soon and it will get real crowded at AA. Perhaps its time for a move to AAA for one or two of these guys. Strait's RH bat would seem to give him an advantage. Louisville currently has Drew Anderson, Chris Dickerson and Jay Bruce all hitting LH listed as OF. Anderson is at .229/.289/.371/,661 and at age 26 looks expendable.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Bruce to Cinti, Strait to AAA, Cumberland to AAA, opening up AA for Dorn, Henry, and Syzmanski to play every day. Drew Anderson and Dickerson can split the rest of the time at AAA. But it's time to start getting 4 AB's every night for the guys who are really prospects.

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Cumberland got a triple and Strait a double in their first AB's today.

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Herrera now with 11 scoreless innings in AAA, with 10 K and 0 BB. I hope this kid makes it because I really want to see his screwball.

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    Re: Some Recent Trends as of May 11

    Dorn should be in the Sarasota line up tomorrow. He has been playing 1B in extended but should return to the OF tomorrow. Frazier will probably be splitting time between 1B/ DH with Louswma.


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