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Thread: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

  1. #151
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    No, even after he's walked all those times he still had over 550 ABs a year to drive in runs.
    You can't have it both ways. You can't look at another player and claim that his RBI are suppressed because of suppressed AB and then flip around and ignore the AB suppression, leading to RBI suppression, that goes on with Dunn due to him being pitched around constantly with ducks on the pond.

    Do you ever watch Reds games or do you just pour over numbers all day?
    I don't know. Let me check with my pocket protector after I charge my PDA and clean my slide rule. I'll get back to you.

    Let's get back to my original question which was if Dunn was more adept at driving in runs would you still be in favor of moving him up to 2nd?
    It's a silly question. As the Reds' most productive hitter, Adam Dunn would be the best hitter on the team in any lineup slot on the team. He'd be the best leadoff hitter, the best #2 hitter, #3 hitter and so on. I've already shown you that Dunn is adept at driving in Runs, but that ability is being suppressed by pitchers who want nothing to do with him with Runners On. That's not some kind of Adam Dunn "issue". It is what it is and acting like moving Dunn to the 2-slot is some kind of "demotion" is completely backwards.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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  3. #152
    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    My point is that hits and walks are not equal so they should not be treated as such. Hits are more beneficial than walks. Does anyone disagree with me?
    I don't think many would disagree with you on that basic statement. In many situations hits are better than walks. An extra base hit is always better than a walk. In some situations, a single and a walk are equal. However, both are positive outcomes in that they do not involve making an out. However, you have been focusing on BA. The problem with BA in general and BA/RISP is that 1) BA treats all hits, singles through home runs, as equal, even though they clearly are not; and 2) it does not take into account walks. OBP takes hits and walks into account. SLG looks at hits, but gives greater value to hits that accumulate more bases. Both OBP and SLG have been determined to correlate more strongly with actually scoring runs than BA. So-called "stat geeks" look to OPS (OBP + SLG) as a means of trying to come up with a stat that takes not making outs and accumulating lots of bases parts of hitting into account.

    The problem with BA is that it can make a player who is otherwise prone to making outs look better than he is.
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  4. #153
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    He wouldn't have scored if Griffey walked either. Griffey's extra base hit was the "heavy lifting" in that scenario
    The two components are related as their values are dependent upon each other.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #154
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post
    Rather than focusing on Dunn's abilities or lack thereof in certain aspects, I think it's better if we look at what Dunn's skills do, create runs, and place the blame on the Reds failure to score runs on the out machines the FO and manager surround him with.
    I think the problem is that Dunn is given somewhat too much credit for his ability to draw a walk. Yes he definitely has a pretty good eye and he's patient. But if you are the guy on the mound it's just playing the odds/damage control to unintentionally intentionally walk the guy who if he makes contact is the guy most likely to blow the game open with men on base. Why is his ability to take a BB with the bases loaded so much different and yet his OBP avg is not only not as good but worse. He is being pitched too in those cases and he isn't getting the job done, which tells me that even if he had a big bat behind him all it would do is uncover what some already know he isn't capable of making consistent contact. And for a long time I have stated that he needs to shorten his swing to the utmost to maximize his potential. He did so and has improved some (although it's not yet showing this season) but he could do more.

    Dunn Career:
    Men on 2nd & 3rd - 92 PA - 32 BB's - 19 IBB's - .522 OBP -.235 BA & .993 OPS
    Bases loaded - 96 PA - 12 BB's - 0 IBB's - .323 OBP - .257 BA & .931 OPS

    For comparisons sake:

    Sexson Career:
    Men on 2nd & 3rd - 110 PA - 22 BB's - 9 IBB's - .418 OBP - .272 BA & .949 OPS
    Bases loaded - 155 PA's - 14 BB's - 0 IBB - .413 OBP -.356 BA & 1.193 OPS

    Just as a point of reference these are their career norms
    Dunn - .247 BA - .380 OBP - .516 Slg. - .896 OPS
    Sexson - .262 BA - .344 OBP - .512 Slg - .856 OPS

    So what do all these #'s mean? It tells me that Sexson who has a lifetime OBP% 36 pts less than Dunn's is actually harder to get out when it's crunch time and by a landslide of 90 pts. Why you say, oh it's because he can make contact when he has too. So although Dunn is a good player he ain't Richie Sexson and that my friends is pretty freaking laughable when you think about it. Now don't get me wrong I do actually like Dunn but he get's way too much manlove as if he is somehow irreplaceable which is the furthest thing from the truth. Oh and it doesn't much matter who is hitting behind you when the bases are jacked, the opposition cannot afford to give up a run thus the 0 IBB's for both.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 05-12-2008 at 09:17 PM.
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  6. #155
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    To me, MR, that's the whole point. On a per/PA basis, Dunn isn't as good as his OPS would suggest at advancing runners. So why do the Reds insist, across multiple managers, to wedge Dunn in to a batting order spot which leverages a players ability to put the ball in play with runners on base? It's by the book insanity. This is going to sound harsh, but when it comes to lineup order, most managers are sheep.

    Dunn hits homers and is therefore an RBI guy. It's simplistic and it's stupid. Put him in a spot in the lineup which takes advantage of BOTH his excellent skills -- OBP and power. 2, 3, 4th are all pretty decent ideas. 7th is criminal. It's almost as stupid as batting a fast guy with power who can't get on base at the top of the lineup.

    Adam Dunn is a great run producer being used in a way that minimizes his run production. Good going, Dusty. You could flip the 7th and leadoff guys and drastically improve the lineup. That's a pretty sad commentary.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #156
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    To me, MR, that's the whole point. On a per/PA basis, Dunn isn't as good as his OPS would suggest at advancing runners. So why do the Reds insist, across multiple managers, to wedge Dunn in to a batting order spot which leverages a players ability to put the ball in play with runners on base? It's by the book insanity. This is going to sound harsh, but when it comes to lineup order, most managers are sheep.

    Dunn hits homers and is therefore an RBI guy. It's simplistic and it's stupid. Put him in a spot in the lineup which takes advantage of BOTH his excellent skills -- OBP and power. 2, 3, 4th are all pretty decent ideas. 7th is criminal. It's almost as stupid as batting a fast guy with power who can't get on base at the top of the lineup.

    Adam Dunn is a great run producer being used in a way that minimizes his run production. Good going, Dusty. You could flip Dunn and Patterson and drastically improve the lineup. That's a pretty sad commentary.
    I agree with that I have stated many times he should be #3 in the order given the current group which would be ideal to take advantage of both traits. #2 too me though isn't getting maximum value out of his SLG% with only the 8,9 & 1 spots in front of him. My only beef is that it is thought that he would improve if given a big bat behind him and he may but people make it seem like it would be a night & day difference and I don't agree.

    Maybe Bob Boone wasn't so nuts afterall, huh? LOL
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  8. #157
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I agree with that I have stated many times he should be #3 in the order given the current group which would be ideal to take advantage of both traits. #2 too me though isn't getting maximum value out of his SLG% with only the 8,9 & 1 spots in front of him. My only beef is that it is thought that he would improve if given a big bat behind him and he may but people make it seem like it would be a night & day difference and I don't agree.

    Maybe Bob Boone wasn't so nuts afterall, huh? LOL
    But given that he gets pitched around and is a poor contact hitter, if you have to choose to take most advantage of his OBP (2nd) or his SLG (7th), clearly the OBP is the better option -- at least that gets him an extra 50 PA.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #158
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    But given that he gets pitched around and is a poor contact hitter, if you have to choose to take most advantage of his OBP (2nd) or his SLG (7th), clearly the OBP is the better option -- at least that gets him an extra 50 PA.
    True but unfortunately he is still probably the best #3 hitter we've got overall.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  10. #159
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    But given that he gets pitched around and is a poor contact hitter, if you have to choose to take most advantage of his OBP (2nd) or his SLG (7th), clearly the OBP is the better option -- at least that gets him an extra 50 PA.
    I think we can all agree that Dusty's decision tonight to put him in the 7 hole is one of the dumbest moves a Reds manager has ever done with this guy and that's saying a lot. Having him up there with 2 on in the 6th with Bako and Harang hitting behind him was looking like a disaster. I applaud Adam for an excellent AB and for driving in the run.

  11. #160
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    So although Dunn is a good player he ain't Richie Sexson and that my friends is pretty freaking laughable when you think about it.
    Over his career, Dunn has produced an average of 7.2 RC per 27 Outs. In a full season, Richie Sexson has reached that mark exactly once (2003) at an age-prime 28 years old. He's never topped it. Think about that for a moment. Sexson, at his best, simply matched Dunn's average seasonal offensive output. And at their respective worsts, Adam Dunn trumps Sexson due to his ability to avoid outs. That's slump-proofing in a nutshell and it's why one guy trumps the other- but in the opposite direction.

    And considering that three-year splits are far more representative of who the player is now, let's take a look at Dunn's situational splits over the last three seasons:

    Runner on 1st only (306 AB): .370 OBP/.563 SLG
    Runner on 2nd only (127 AB): .448 OBP/.512 SLG
    Runner on 3rd only (38 AB): .490 OBP/.763 SLG
    Runners on 1st and 2nd (130 AB): .403 OBP/.531 SLG
    Runners on 1st and 3rd (46 AB): .317 OBP/.196 SLG
    Runners on 2nd and 3rd (33 AB): .473 OBP/.273 SLG
    Bases Loaded (32 AB): .396 OBP/.719 SLG

    The composite behavior of Adam Dunn in the situations is a .401 OBP and a .523 SLG. He's been a productivity angel with ducks on the pond. The real RBI driver is SLG and his .528 SLG w/Runners on has been a match with his none-on SLG (.526). The real bonus is that no one really wants to pitch to him with runners on (.401 OBP/.162 IsoD), which provides additional opportunity to his team beyond that offered by a low-OBP .520-ish SLG player. A team capable of leveraging that would have Dunn in the 2 or 3 slot (see: Edmonds, Jim) rather than at 5, 6, or (for goodness sake) 7th.

    You also should note that the "established" version of Dunn has received one BB every 3.2 AB with the Bases Loaded over the last three years. That treatment from opposing hurlers began immediately after Dunn's first 40 HR season (2004). That was a respect factor Dunn created due to his performance.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  12. #161
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    MR, Adam Dunn has stepped up to the plate over 4,000 times in his career, and you're conclusions are being drawn over a bout 200 of them. That's a bout 5% of his overall plate appearances. Surely you have to realize the folly in that.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  13. #162
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    It's very difficult for most Fans to understand that the stats they hold most dear (BA, HR, RBI, W-L record, ERA) are imperfect.

    We all grew up believing these stats could tell us everything we needed to know. (we were wrong)

    Sometimes we must open our minds to new ideas.

    Many of us refuse to let go of our life long beliefs long enough to even try to understand new ideas. (that's very sad)

    If we love something, we should indeed try to learn everything we can about it in order to understand and love it that much more.
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 05-13-2008 at 03:01 AM.

  14. #163
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    MR, Adam Dunn has stepped up to the plate over 4,000 times in his career, and you're conclusions are being drawn over a bout 200 of them. That's a bout 5% of his overall plate appearances. Surely you have to realize the folly in that.
    Certainly I recognize that it's a small sample, but it's all we have at least with concern to when the opposition cannot effectively pitch around Dunn. When the bases are loaded it's mano e mano and may the best man win. It's important because it reveals alot about who the players really are, i.e. there is no where to hide.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  15. #164
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    It's very difficult for most Fans to understand that the stats they hold most dear (BA, HR, RBI, W-L record, ERA) are imperfect.

    We all grew up believing these stats could tell us everything we needed to know. (we were wrong)

    Sometimes we must open our minds to new ideas.

    Many of us refuse to let go of our life long beliefs long enough to even try to understand new ideas. (that's very sad)

    If we love something, we should indeed try to learn everything we can about it in order to understand and love it that much more.
    I truly hope that you are not suggesting that is what I am doing RM, I have opened my mind and have learned quite a bit.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  16. #165
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I truly hope that you are not suggesting that is what I am doing RM, I have opened my mind and have learned quite a bit.
    No, I wasn't pointing a finger at anyone in particular.


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