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Thread: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

  1. #16
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    One thing you can say about Perez is, he failed at choking.

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  3. #17
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I guess it all depends on whether you think .284 is clutch or not. If Adam Dunn hit .284 w/RISP he'd be an MVP candidate. Which brings me back to my original point. Adam Dunn should hit 2nd because of what he can't do as opposed to what he does well. He's earned a demotion to the #2 spot in the order. It's ashame he can't knock in more runs to go with his 40 HRs but since he's very weak at that they might as well try him in the 2 hole. It's very difficult to put a guy in the heart of the lineup who hits so poorly w/ RISP. If Erardi is correct that it's very rare for a guy to hit less than 10 pts below his BA with RISP then Dunn must be a rare kind a guy. From 2004-07 he was 15 below his overall BA and this year he's hitting below .200 with RISP.
    The guy knocks in 100 runs per year. Despite not getting optimal lineup position, the guy has led the Reds in RBI for the last four years. And he's the only guy since Frank Robinson to post Runs Created numbers four years running while under the age of 30.

    And if the 2-slot is a "demotion", was Joey Votto just "demoted" into the 2-slot tonight? Did Alex Rodriguez experience the same effect in his time in the 2-slot? How about Jim Edmonds?

    The idea of slotting Dunn in the 2-slot has absolutely nothing to do with what he doesn't do well- like leading the Reds in RBI four seasons running. It has everything to do with slump-proofing the lineup versus good pitching rather than stupidly slotting players based on what Baker thinks their "jobs" are.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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  4. #18
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    The idea of slotting Dunn in the 2-slot has absolutely nothing to do with what he doesn't do well- like leading the Reds in RBI four seasons running. It has everything to do with slump-proofing the lineup versus good pitching rather than stupidly slotting players based on what Baker thinks their "jobs" are.


    I totally disagree. If the guy was driving in runs we wouldn't be talking about moving him up to #2. Sure he has driven 100 three times in his career. That's not a big trick when you're hitting 40+ HRs. If you think he's adept at driving in runs then we're not on the same page. Would you be in favor of Pujols, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz or Barry Bonds (in his prime) hitting 2nd?

    Dunn leading the Reds in RBIs says more about the dearth of run producers on this team than it does about Dunn.
    Last edited by Sea Ray; 05-12-2008 at 12:45 AM.

  5. #19
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I totally disagree. If the guy was driving in runs we wouldn't be talking about moving him up to #2. Sure he has driven 100 three times in his career. That's not a big trick when you're hitting 40+ HRs. If you think he's adept at driving in runs then we're not on the same page. Would you be in favor of Pujols, Manny Ramirez or Barry Bonds (in his prime) hitting 2nd?

    Dunn leading the Reds in RBIs says more about the dearth of run producers on this team than it does about Dunn.
    Yes and no. I don't think Dunn is a very good RBI man, but the three players you brought up are among the best hitters of all time, so the comparison to them is quite rough. You could pick nearly every player in baseball and they are going to lose a comparison to Pujols, Manram or Bonds.

    I think Dunn should hit second to maximize his abilities at the plate. He walks a ton, which will help him get on base and score runs. It also gets him more at bats. His lack of contact doesn't bother me in the lineup because I am against 'situational hitting' 95% of the time anyways. Stacking the lineup correctly around him would also lead to pitchers not pitching around him so much, leading to better production through the lineup.

  6. #20
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes and no. I don't think Dunn is a very good RBI man, but the three players you brought up are among the best hitters of all time, so the comparison to them is quite rough. You could pick nearly every player in baseball and they are going to lose a comparison to Pujols, Manram or Bonds.

    I think Dunn should hit second to maximize his abilities at the plate. He walks a ton, which will help him get on base and score runs. It also gets him more at bats. His lack of contact doesn't bother me in the lineup because I am against 'situational hitting' 95% of the time anyways. Stacking the lineup correctly around him would also lead to pitchers not pitching around him so much, leading to better production through the lineup.

    Fair enough Doug, but answer me this. If Dunn knocked in 135 a year instead of 100 would you still advocate moving him up to #2?

    Dunn and David Ortiz have identical career OBP, have similar offensive skills and they both hit for a lot of power but Ortiz knocks in a lot more runs. For that reason I don't think there's anyone in Boston clamoring for Ortiz to bat 2nd.

  7. #21
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I totally disagree. If the guy was driving in runs we wouldn't be talking about moving him up to #2. Sure he has driven 100 three times in his career. That's not a big trick when you're hitting 40+ HRs. If you think he's adept at driving in runs then we're not on the same page. Would you be in favor of Pujols, Manny Ramirez or Barry Bonds (in his prime) hitting 2nd?

    Dunn leading the Reds in RBIs says more about the dearth of run producers on this team than it does about Dunn.
    Well, if you're simply fixated on RBI production, then you're missing out on how runs are really created. Dunn has created Runs at an historical level for the franchise during his tenure.

    You can disagree all you like, but you still can't find a sub-30 year old offensive player since Frank Robinson who's been more consistently valuable than has Adam Dunn. That's unfortunate, but that's the reality, and the fact that you're bringing up historically exceptional offensive players to support your point really speaks to the the real problem- that Dunn isn't Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Pujols.

    Your expections are way WAY too high and if an historically exceptional player is the only option for you, then you've set yourself up for the kind of dissapointment I can't even fathom.



    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yes and no. I don't think Dunn is a very good RBI man, but the three players you brought up are among the best hitters of all time, so the comparison to them is quite rough. You could pick nearly every player in baseball and they are going to lose a comparison to Pujols, Manram or Bonds.

    I think Dunn should hit second to maximize his abilities at the plate. He walks a ton, which will help him get on base and score runs. It also gets him more at bats. His lack of contact doesn't bother me in the lineup because I am against 'situational hitting' 95% of the time anyways. Stacking the lineup correctly around him would also lead to pitchers not pitching around him so much, leading to better production through the lineup.

    Fair enough Doug, but answer me this. If Dunn knocked in 135 a year instead of 100 would you still advocate moving him up to #2?
    Find me a player who actually produces 135 RBI per season. Seriously. Find that.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

  8. #22
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post





    Find me a player who actually produces 135 RBI per season. Seriously. Find that.

    Be happy to. I mentioned him earlier. David Ortiz has produced 135 RBI 3 out of the last 4 years which is as often as Dunn has managed 100.

    Now I get back to my original point. If Dunn knocked in 135 three out of the last 4 yrs would you still be in favor of hitting him 2nd?

  9. #23
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    John Erardi Gets It.

    The sad thing is Reds Management Doesn't Get It.

    Many Reds Fans Don't Get It.

  10. #24
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Just wanted to say that I'm delighted to see that these articles continue to get such a warm response. Joel, Greg, and I have had a great time contributing to them over the past several weeks. And John Erardi does a fantastic job converting our (or at least my) statspeak into intelligible English. He's gradually helping us figure out how to do it, but I find it really hard to do. As Rick put it, I can't get out of my own way when it comes to explaining this stuff at times.

    I should also emphasize that a lot of a creative force behind these articles comes from Joel--he has put an enormous amount of effort into this stuff. Most of my contributions to this article came after John wrote the first draft based on Joel's work.
    -j
    Last edited by JinAZ; 05-12-2008 at 01:34 AM. Reason: clarification

  11. #25
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I don't know where Erardi got his stats
    When in doubt, assume baseball reference.

    Here's Perez's career splits:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...ezto01&year=00

    0.279 career batting average
    0.284 career AVG with RISP
    -j

  12. #26
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    John Erardi Gets It.

    The sad thing is Reds Management Doesn't Get It.

    Many Reds Fans Don't Get It.
    Maybe Erardi needs to be in the broadcast booth then.

  13. #27
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by OldRightHander View Post
    Maybe Erardi needs to be in the broadcast booth then.
    Better yet, hire him to make out the lineups.
    It has been obvious for years that Dunn's high OBP made him a good candidate to bat second, yet the Reds have yet to have a competent manager who can grasp the basic concept of getting your high OBP hitters as many at bats as possible.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

  14. #28
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    Better yet, hire him to make out the lineups.
    It has been obvious for years that Dunn's high OBP made him a good candidate to bat second, yet the Reds have yet to have a competent manager who can grasp the basic concept of getting your high OBP hitters as many at bats as possible.
    Yep, but having somebody in the broadcast booth would be nice as well. Having an educated fan base would be nice, and an announcer who would educate them properly would go a long way toward changing public perception. It seems that people in this town don't appreciate the skills certain players have and those attitudes are only fed by things that come out of the broadcast booth.

  15. #29
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Adam Dunn should hit 2nd because of what he can't do as opposed to what he does well.
    Adam Dunn should bat second because it would maximally leverage his impact.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #30
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Be happy to. I mentioned him earlier. David Ortiz has produced 135 RBI 3 out of the last 4 years which is as often as Dunn has managed 100.

    Now I get back to my original point. If Dunn knocked in 135 three out of the last 4 yrs would you still be in favor of hitting him 2nd?
    If Dunn knocked in 135 rbi's consistently during that period, he'd be in a lineup that wouldn't need him to bat second......
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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