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Thread: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

  1. #31
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If Dunn knocked in 135 rbi's consistently during that period, he'd be in a lineup that wouldn't need him to bat second......
    I wouldn't blame the lineup. He can't hit with RISP. His career avg of .221 in such situations has to be historically low. Even Dave Kingman bested that by 20 pts. You can't have a guy in the middle of your lineup hitting .221 w/RISP. Because of that he might as well hit 2nd.

    It's tough to hit 40 HRs and only knock in 100 but that's been Dunn's pattern. That's another rare skill this guy's got.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I wouldn't blame the lineup. He can't hit with RISP. His career avg of .221 in such situations has to be historically low. Even Dave Kingman bested that by 20 pts. You can't have a guy in the middle of your lineup hitting .221 w/RISP. Because of that he might as well hit 2nd.

    It's tough to hit 40 HRs and only knock in 100 but that's been Dunn's pattern. That's another rare skill this guy's got.


    RBI's and now Batting average w/RISP.

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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If Dunn knocked in 135 rbi's consistently during that period, he'd be in a lineup that wouldn't need him to bat second......
    I think this is the whole point. Dunn's strength as a hitter is getting on base. And hopefully being knocked in by others.

    For a 40 homer guy, Dunn is not especially proficient at knocking in runs. So he isn't ideal in the middle of the order.

    The problem with the Reds managers is that they keep envisioning Dunn as an RBI guy. And they don't have other good RBI guys. So they keep forcing him into RBI lineup spots and everyone is disappointed.

    So Dunn should hit second. The problem is economic. If the Reds are going to get better middle-of-the-order hitters than Dunn, they won't be able to afford him as the second place hitter.

  5. #34
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think this is the whole point. Dunn's strength as a hitter is getting on base. And hopefully being knocked in by others.

    For a 40 homer guy, Dunn is not especially proficient at knocking in runs. So he isn't ideal in the middle of the order.

    The problem with the Reds managers is that they keep envisioning Dunn as an RBI guy. And they don't have other good RBI guys. So they keep forcing him into RBI lineup spots and everyone is disappointed.

    So Dunn should hit second. The problem is economic. If the Reds are going to get better middle-of-the-order hitters than Dunn, they won't be able to afford him as the second place hitter.
    Old school thinking states that HR=RBI. Obviously that's not the case.

    And Sea Ray, David Ortiz better have 135 RBI's in that ball park while DH'ing.

    If EdE is so good with RISP, as he once was, the Reds could be the only team with a 40/80 guy and a 15/100 guy.

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  6. #35
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If Dunn knocked in 135 rbi's consistently during that period, he'd be in a lineup that wouldn't need him to bat second......
    Bingo! Exactly what I was thinking. I'm still amazed that so many folks look at RBIs as a comparison for two players that play on completely different teams, especially with one of those players being on the team that scored in the top few teams every year.
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I wouldn't blame the lineup. He can't hit with RISP. His career avg of .221 in such situations has to be historically low. Even Dave Kingman bested that by 20 pts. You can't have a guy in the middle of your lineup hitting .221 w/RISP. Because of that he might as well hit 2nd.

    It's tough to hit 40 HRs and only knock in 100 but that's been Dunn's pattern. That's another rare skill this guy's got.
    Since we're dusting off old arguments:

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Wow......ignore a thread for a few days because it's mostly about whether announcers are too snarky or not and a sabermetric argument breaks out... This is why I LOVE redszone.

    Anyway, lets put this situational hitting argument against Dunn to rest once and for all....

    Dunn (career totals):
    total: .245/.380/.513
    Runners on: .241/.412/.501
    RISP: .219/.418/.479

    Here are the theoretical RC for those situations (using the simple formula: OBP*SLG*AB and assuming 600 AB)
    total: 117
    Runners on: 124
    RISP: 120

    So over his career, Dunn actually has been a slightly more effective hitter when runners are on than when the bases are empty. He just gets there a different way. Also, I think these numbers really highlight the importance of getting on base and how batting average really is a flawed metric relative to run production.
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=354

    Here's another argument against defining Dunn by his BA/RISP:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=381
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think this is the whole point. Dunn's strength as a hitter is getting on base. And hopefully being knocked in by others.

    For a 40 homer guy, Dunn is not especially proficient at knocking in runs. So he isn't ideal in the middle of the order.

    The problem with the Reds managers is that they keep envisioning Dunn as an RBI guy. And they don't have other good RBI guys. So they keep forcing him into RBI lineup spots and everyone is disappointed.

    So Dunn should hit second. The problem is economic. If the Reds are going to get better middle-of-the-order hitters than Dunn, they won't be able to afford him as the second place hitter.
    Spot on. IMO, Dunn's power has blinded many to his most obvious strength - he's an OB machine. But a #2 tablesetter earning 15 million a year? The Sox and Yanks could afford to do that but can the Reds? Will they use him correctly anyway if they do extend him? Kepp 1 Dunn 2 EE3 Votto 4. Edwin and Joey would get an enormous number of rbi situations to hit in. Add BP and Bruce (keeping pressure of Jay when he first comes up and letting him improve his OBP skills before moving him up) and the Reds might have a lineup that can consistently score runs.

    I was a Dusty supporter at first but as I've read, researched and watched I've gone a 180. It's not his use of pitchers, it's his incredibly bad utilization of hitting resources, his "walking is for dogs" that has guys like BP swinging from the heels at everything (and what will that attitude do to Jay Bruce? and anyone notice CP was making strides at changing his approach until he came back to Dusty - now he's swinging at everything again and again is a K machine); and his refusal to construct a lineup based on each hitter's strengths & weaknesses rather than his preconcepotions of what each hitter should do. Now I'm convinced that when Dusty had winning teams they won despite him, with talent that could win despite mismanagement and I wonder whether the Cubs curse might be old news if Lou and not Dusty had had them two years earlier.

  9. #38
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    Bingo! Exactly what I was thinking. I'm still amazed that so many folks look at RBIs as a comparison for two players that play on completely different teams, especially with one of those players being on the team that scored in the top few teams every year.
    No kidding. Ortiz has spent much of his career on a team where the guys who bat ahead of him get on base and he has guys batting behind him who are worth a darn. So one could argue his greater RBI count is a reflection of more guys on base in front of him and, if you are big on lineup construction, better players batting behind him so that he sees better pitches.

    Dunn puts up solid RBI numbers despite the fact that he often spends the first half of every season batting low in the order because each new Reds manager has this notion that he's supposed to drive in runs. Then of course they have to bat Junior third because everyone bats Junior third. Since they're both left-handed, the manager has to put a righty between them, so that means Dunn usually bats fifth for new managers. Now, batting fifth, he has to deal with the facts that 1) he comes up less often than he would if he were batting higher in the order, 2) other players batting ahead of him aren't getting on base as often as he does, and 3) he often has guys like Phillips and Keppinger (and Sean Casey in years gone by) who are prone to hitting in double plays. He also has fewer good hitters batting behind him, which may lead to more pitches out of the zone. There are so many factors that go into RBIs. BA/RISP is one of them and just going by the raw numbers out of context doesn't quite paint the full picture. To continue the art metaphor, it's like looking at Da Vinci's "The Last Supper," but only focusing on Judas.

    By the way, my art metaphor by no means implies that I believe Dunn's skills as a hitter equate to Da Vinci's skill as a painter. It's just a metaphor.
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Spot on. IMO, Dunn's power has blinded many to his most obvious strength - he's an OB machine. But a #2 tablesetter earning 15 million a year? The Sox and Yanks could afford to do that but can the Reds?
    The Sox and Yanks wouldn't have to do it. Robinson Cano and JD Drew often bat 7th for those teams, not because their managers don't know how to put together a lineup, but because there's nowhere else to put them.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  11. #40
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Yeah, Dunn might not be Ortiz, but if you put him in Ortiz's place in that lineup, his RBI totals would go way up.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  12. #41
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think this is the whole point. Dunn's strength as a hitter is getting on base. And hopefully being knocked in by others.

    For a 40 homer guy, Dunn is not especially proficient at knocking in runs. So he isn't ideal in the middle of the order.

    The problem with the Reds managers is that they keep envisioning Dunn as an RBI guy. And they don't have other good RBI guys. So they keep forcing him into RBI lineup spots and everyone is disappointed.

    So Dunn should hit second. The problem is economic. If the Reds are going to get better middle-of-the-order hitters than Dunn, they won't be able to afford him as the second place hitter.

    Ahhh. Someone who "gets" it.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens next year. If Dunn signs elsewhere for big bucks he'll likely hit in the middle of the order. I'd be very surprised if another team pays him $15mill to be a #2 hitter.

    The truth is he's not worth $15 mill and he's not a middle of the order hitter

  13. #42
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Since we're dusting off old arguments:



    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=354

    Here's another argument against defining Dunn by his BA/RISP:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=381

    Yeah Jojo, your stats value walks with RISP but I say that's overrated. Walks don't drive in runs with RISP. I'm fine with him drawing a lot of walks. That is good for the offense but I also want to see him hit a little better than .221 when he does not draw a walk in those situations.

  14. #43
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post
    Dunn puts up solid RBI numbers despite the fact that he often spends the first half of every season batting low in the order because each new Reds manager has this notion that he's supposed to drive in runs. Then of course they have to bat Junior third because everyone bats Junior third.
    It's not a far out notion that Dunn should be a guy who drives in runs. He's 6'6" 275 lbs hits 40+HRs a year and strikes out about 200x a year. That's generally a guy you think of in the #4 or 5 hole but he is very unusual in that he hits 40-45 HRs a year yet he struggles to reach 100 RBIs. That makes him very out of the ordinary. If he's hitting 40 some HRs a year and only knocking in 100 then he's basically only driving in runs when he homers. So I disagree with you that he's putting up solid RBI numbers

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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    It's tough to hit 40 HRs and only knock in 100 but that's been Dunn's pattern. That's another rare skill this guy's got.
    Is it really all that rare? Research tells us it's not. In 2007 Prince Fielder hit 50 HR and drove in 119 Runs. Remove 10 solo shots and you have 40 HR and 109 RBI; which would be three more RBI than Dunn posted. Others recently:

    Derrek Lee 2005: 46 HR/107 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2004: 45 HR/101 RBI
    Jim Thome 2004: 42 HR/105 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2004: 42 HR/111 RBI
    Moises Alou 2004: 39 HR/106 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2003: 45 HR/90 RBI
    Javy Lopez 2003: 43 HR/109 RBI
    Sammy Sosa 2003: 40 HR/103 RBI
    Jeff Bagwell 2003: 39 HR/100 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2003: 39 HR/89 RBI
    Sammy Sosa 2002: 49 HR/108 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2002: 46 HR/110 RBI
    Vlad Guerrero 2002: 39 HR/111 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2000: 49 HR/106 RBI
    Garry Sheffield 2000: 43 HR/109 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2000: 42 HR/108 RBI

    If 40 Home Runs makes you a shoe-in for the mythical annual 135 RBI plane of existence, then how'd all that happen?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Is it really all that rare? Research tells us it's not. In 2007 Prince Fielder hit 50 HR and drove in 119 Runs. Remove 10 solo shots and you have 40 HR and 109 RBI; which would be three more RBI than Dunn posted. Others recently:

    Derrek Lee 2005: 46 HR/107 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2004: 45 HR/101 RBI
    Jim Thome 2004: 42 HR/105 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2004: 42 HR/111 RBI
    Moises Alou 2004: 39 HR/106 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2003: 45 HR/90 RBI
    Javy Lopez 2003: 43 HR/109 RBI
    Sammy Sosa 2003: 40 HR/103 RBI
    Jeff Bagwell 2003: 39 HR/100 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2003: 39 HR/89 RBI
    Sammy Sosa 2002: 49 HR/108 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2002: 46 HR/110 RBI
    Vlad Guerrero 2002: 39 HR/111 RBI
    Barry Bonds 2000: 49 HR/106 RBI
    Garry Sheffield 2000: 43 HR/109 RBI
    Jim Edmonds 2000: 42 HR/108 RBI

    If 40 Home Runs makes you a shoe-in for the mythical annual 135 RBI plane of existence, then how'd all that happen?


    I think what you really meant to say was:

    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."


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