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Thread: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

  1. #61
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Over the past four years Dunn has averaged 100 RBI/yr. There's only two on the your list that are under that number. One was a sub 40 HR year and the other was a year in which Bonds had only 390 ABs. Dunn's last 4 years have included well over 500 ABs. That's a lot of chances to drive in runs that Bonds didn't have. Come to think of it, Jim Edmonds also had less than 450 ABs.
    So you mean that suppressed opportunity could make it appear that a hitter isn't driving in a lot of Runs, but that he might actually be pretty good at it? So when Dunn's AB/BB rate w/RISP is one BB every 3.44 AB versus 6.11 with None On, that may serve to suppress true RBI opportunity?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  3. #62
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Doesn't seem to effect Dunn. Even in 2005 when the Reds led the league in runs scored Dunn's RBI total hovered around 100...didn't vary much from today's offensively challenged Reds team
    Glad you brought up 2005.

    In 2005, the Reds were 11th in the NL with BA w/RISP .256. The NL average was .261. They were, however, 3rd in NL with OPS w/RISP 808 vs the league average OPS of .762.

    They were third in the NL in RS w/RISP.

    Funny how that works.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  4. #63
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    So you mean that suppressed opportunity could make it appear that a hitter isn't driving in a lot of Runs, but that he might actually be pretty good at it? So when Dunn's AB/BB rate w/RISP is one BB every 3.44 AB versus 6.11 with None On, that may serve to suppress true RBI opportunity?
    No, even after he's walked all those times he still had over 550 ABs a year to drive in runs.

    Do you ever watch Reds games or do you just pour over numbers all day? Those of us who actually watch Reds baseball see Dunn leaving an inordinate amount of players on base.

    Let's get back to my original question which was if Dunn was more adept at driving in runs would you still be in favor of moving him up to 2nd?

  5. #64
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Do you ever watch Reds games or do you just pour over numbers all day?


    I had 12:30 in the pool, what do I win?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  6. #65
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I had 12:30 in the pool, what do I win?
    A new calculator?

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    A new calculator?
    They'll take my slide-rule out of my cold dead hands!

    You can keep your newfangled "calculator".
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  8. #67
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Do you ever watch Reds games or do you just pour over numbers all day? Those of us who actually watch Reds baseball see Dunn leaving an inordinate amount of players on base.
    Do you ever watch baseball games in which the Reds are not a participant? Games in which you have no particular rooting interest? If you don't do it very often, I'd recommend it. It helps put what you see when you watch your own team in perspective. It's very easy to let your emotions take over when your team racks up the LOBs, or when their opponents do, just in the opposite way. But there's nothing particularly unique about the biggest power threat on a team being given very little to hit with RISP.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  9. #68
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I had 12:30 in the pool, what do I win?

    Pay attention to the open sky

  10. #69
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Those of us who actually watch Reds baseball see Dunn leaving an inordinate amount of players on base.
    Even when the historical record of those games you watch suggests otherwise?

    Dunn should bat 2nd because of his high OBP skills and because when he's batted 2nd in the past, his overall offensive numbers have improved. On top of that, it seems he told Dusty he's most comfortable batting 2nd but Dusty wants his "RBI men" batting lower in the lineup.

    Dusty seems to be the only one who doesn't see the benefit in Dunn batting 2nd. Too bad for us, he's the one who makes out the lineup card.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
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  11. #70
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Matt Holliday had 307 AB with Runners On in 2007. Dunn had 241. In those AB, Holliday saw 415 Runners on. Dunn saw 330 ducks on the pond during his AB. Holliday drove in 28.7% of the Runners he saw during his AB and Dunn drove in 26.4% of his Runners as a result of his AB. Apply Dunn's rate to Holliday's opportunity and you have an RBI total of 110 RBI with Runners On. Add in Dunn's solo HR and you have 129 RBI, which would certainly be enough to impress even Marty Brennaman.

    Dunn isn't deficient in this area. Never has been.
    Yep.


    Lesson demonstrated: counting stats require context!
    Last edited by jojo; 05-12-2008 at 02:56 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #71
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    Even when the historical record of those games you watch suggests otherwise?
    This shouldn't be dismissed as snark.....it's a very important question IMHO.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #72
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I was a Dusty supporter at first but as I've read, researched and watched I've gone a 180. It's not his use of pitchers, it's his incredibly bad utilization of hitting resources, his "walking is for dogs" that has guys like BP swinging from the heels at everything (and what will that attitude do to Jay Bruce? and anyone notice CP was making strides at changing his approach until he came back to Dusty - now he's swinging at everything again and again is a K machine); and his refusal to construct a lineup based on each hitter's strengths & weaknesses rather than his preconcepotions of what each hitter should do. Now I'm convinced that when Dusty had winning teams they won despite him, with talent that could win despite mismanagement and I wonder whether the Cubs curse might be old news if Lou and not Dusty had had them two years earlier.

  14. #73
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Matt Holliday had 307 AB with Runners On in 2007. Dunn had 241. In those AB, Holliday saw 415 Runners on. Dunn saw 330 ducks on the pond during his AB. Holliday drove in 28.7% of the Runners he saw during his AB and Dunn drove in 26.4% of his Runners as a result of his AB. Apply Dunn's rate to Holliday's opportunity and you have an RBI total of 110 RBI with Runners On. Add in Dunn's solo HR and you have 129 RBI, which would certainly be enough to impress even Marty Brennaman.

    Dunn isn't deficient in this area. Never has been.
    This should end the conversation. Probably won't, though.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  15. #74
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post
    No kidding. Ortiz has spent much of his career on a team where the guys who bat ahead of him get on base and he has guys batting behind him who are worth a darn. So one could argue his greater RBI count is a reflection of more guys on base in front of him and, if you are big on lineup construction, better players batting behind him so that he sees better pitches.

    Dunn puts up solid RBI numbers despite the fact that he often spends the first half of every season batting low in the order because each new Reds manager has this notion that he's supposed to drive in runs. Then of course they have to bat Junior third because everyone bats Junior third. Since they're both left-handed, the manager has to put a righty between them, so that means Dunn usually bats fifth for new managers. Now, batting fifth, he has to deal with the facts that 1) he comes up less often than he would if he were batting higher in the order, 2) other players batting ahead of him aren't getting on base as often as he does, and 3) he often has guys like Phillips and Keppinger (and Sean Casey in years gone by) who are prone to hitting in double plays. He also has fewer good hitters batting behind him, which may lead to more pitches out of the zone. There are so many factors that go into RBIs. BA/RISP is one of them and just going by the raw numbers out of context doesn't quite paint the full picture. To continue the art metaphor, it's like looking at Da Vinci's "The Last Supper," but only focusing on Judas.

    By the way, my art metaphor by no means implies that I believe Dunn's skills as a hitter equate to Da Vinci's skill as a painter. It's just a metaphor.
    Exactly.

    Management won't even try putting Griffey behind Dunn for a significant time, let alone stacking behind Dunn a Griffey, Votto, Encarcion mix to accomplish what has worked for other teams and as you are speaking to above. We really don't know what Adam Dunn could do, we never saw him in a setting as you are speaking to. The annoying part is that there is nothing to stop them from trying now, nothing, but some old mindset that is erroneous when it comes to Dunn.

    Some of Juniors best years were accomplished in Seattle in the 3 hole with a team around him like you are talking about. Reds management wants Dunn and others to do that for Griffey now, instead of Griffey doing that for the other players in the present, Griffey doesn't have it anymore to have it like he did in Seattle.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 05-12-2008 at 03:10 PM.

  16. #75
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: John Erardi Gets It -- "Who's Counting"

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Do you ever watch Reds games or do you just pour over numbers all day? Those of us who actually watch Reds baseball see Dunn leaving an inordinate amount of players on base.
    This is always the first card that's played when someone's POV has overwhelmingly been show to lack merit. It's like the sun rising in the east.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David


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