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Thread: Keppinger fractures knee

  1. #151
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Maybe. But there are some seriously low-voltage arms in the pen.
    I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

    Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

    With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.
    Last edited by M2; 05-14-2008 at 12:17 PM.
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  3. #152
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    1. I still think it is possible EE moves to LF. Kep +- Rosales could be at 3B.

    2. Superutility guy playing 120 games a year?

    3. LF?

    I'm thinking Door #3.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

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  4. #153
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

    Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

    With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.
    I don't disagree at all that defense will make a big difference. What I'm saying is very simple--Burton, Mercker, Bray, Weathers, Affeldt--don't represent high-voltage arms (Cordero excepted, obviously). I think that K/9 is likely headed well down for both the pen and rotation, fwiw.

    Great defense would make them passable--in the way great defense has made Ryan Franklin, et al passable in St. Louis. But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen, and by electric I don't mean fool's gold like Bray and Burton.

  5. #154
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen.
    Josh Roenicke.

  6. #155
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I don't disagree at all that defense will make a big difference. What I'm saying is very simple--Burton, Mercker, Bray, Weathers, Affeldt--don't represent high-voltage arms (Cordero excepted, obviously). I think that K/9 is likely headed well down for both the pen and rotation, fwiw.

    Great defense would make them passable--in the way great defense has made Ryan Franklin, et al passable in St. Louis. But if this team is to matter, they'll need a couple of more electric arms in the pen, and by electric I don't mean fool's gold like Bray and Burton.
    I'm not worried about the K/9 in the rotation. Those guys have the voltage necessary to continue what they're doing. Affeldt and Burton are going to K fewer hitters as the season wears on though others might K more hitters to balance it out.

    I'm all for the team getting a higher voltage pen, but the Reds are no worse off in that department than any other team in the NL Central. So while it could be better, this bullpen could very well get the job done if it were backed by a capable defense. More importantly, I'm not sure how you go about determining which arms in the bullpen work and don't work until you put a reasonable defense behind them.
    Last edited by M2; 05-14-2008 at 12:58 PM.
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  7. #156
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    The question with the above if Janish starts at SS and Patterson in CF, is if the lineup can handle those outs. No question, the defense is solid.

    Me? I'd put Janish at SS, hit him 8/9 and let it ride. Is there a sliding scale of what a career minor league .736 OPS translates to at the big league level?
    While not a direct sliding scale, this is what Pecota's weighted mean predicted for Janish as a major leaguer this season: .245/.318/.363. This is currently what the league is doing at short: .273/.337/.401.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #157
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Ah, good catch cyclone. If that's the case then it would make no sense to call him up now. Might as well hold off until the 25th.

    Bruce walked again, he's 1-for-1 with a 2-run triple and two walks.
    Here's another Jay Bruce update:

    He is 3-for-3 today with a double, triple, homerun, and two walks. He's now hitting .366 with a 1.060 OPS. Wow. Both his double and triple were hit off the wall so he has come close to a three homerun game.

  9. #158
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Here's another Jay Bruce update:

    He is 3-for-3 today with a double, triple, homerun, and two walks. He's now hitting .366 with a 1.060 OPS. Wow. Both his double and triple were hit off the wall so he has come close to a three homerun game.
    Wow, kid is a monster and should make the Reds second half of the year a blast to watch. At this point, I would definitely agree with the May 26-27 callup date noted above to avoid the super-2 rule...

  10. #159
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I disagree. For instance, the Rays have 6.77 K/9 in the pen with a 3.16 ERA. The Reds have a 7.65 K/9 with a 4.34 ERA. Walks and SLG allowed filter into the discussion as well, but the Reds pen allows a 9.49 H/9 while the Rays pen allows a 6.84 H/9. Some of that is luck based, but if the team played solid defense behind the pitchers, we'd be looking at a far different situation.

    Overall, the Reds have allowed a 9.46 H/9 despite having an MLB-best 8.09 K/9. (and 2nd place isn't even close). A solid defense would be worth an extra out a game and a good defense would be worth 1.5 extra outs a game. That's just balls in play converted to outs. It doesn't even take into account fewer extra bases taken on OFs slow to get to the ball or fewer instances of pitchers working from the stretch. Extra outs tend to have a snowball effect (a key 3rd out converted by the defense can save you multiple hits that might have followed it).

    With defense this bad its nearly impossible to assess the pitching, but pretty much everyone in that staff stands to improve if they were backed by a defense capable of doing its job.
    Perfectly stated. With the added note that a great defensive play often has the reverse impact of giving up extra outs. Jacking up the pitching staff, improving the team morale and peaking the interest of the fans. The 2001 Mariners were indeed a thing of beauty to watch.

  11. #160
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'd be shocked if the Reds don't hold out to clear Super Two status since it's already mid May and there's very little time remaining. By my calculations, it looks like the "safe" date to call Bruce up would be May 24th, a Saturday when the Reds are in San Diego. If they waited that long then they'd likely then elect to hold off until returning home on Tuesday, May 27th when the Pirates roll in.

    The Reds have held out for seven weeks now on Bruce; I'm thinking they'll keep their hands off the trigger for two more weeks. But stranger things have happened so you never know.

    FWIW, it looks like the Brewers held out in calling up Ryan Braun last year until quite possibly the very exact "safe" day. Braun was hitting .342/.418/.701/1.119 in AAA and the Brewers called him up on May 25th.
    Cyclone, I'm trying to explain this to a friend. Do I have this right?

    Let's say Bruce is called up in late May/early June and plays through the year, he will have something like 120 days of ML service (0.120).

    Next year he plays the whole season. By next late May/Early June when he hits the 1st anniversary of his call-up, his service time will be 1.000 (1 year). On the next day it will be 1.001 and he'll be sitting at 1.120 after the 2009 season and 2.120 after the 2010 season. Players get arbitration when they come into a year with 3 years (3.000) ML service time, but some get it if they are in the top 16% ("Super Two") of their group within year 2 (2.00-2.171) and nothing at or below 2.120 has ever made "Super Two".

    So, the Reds are getting Bruce for the major league minimum (400-500K) in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If they had already called him up, he'd be past 2.120 after 2010 and could possibly get "super-two" status, which would mean arbitration in 2011 and a whole boatload of dollars if he is the player we think he'll be. It also means moving his free agency year up to 2014, instead of 2015.

    Otherwise, the arbitration clock starts in 2012 and also counts down to Free Agency.

    At this rate:

    2008 (0.120 service time after season)
    2009 (1.120 service time after season)
    2010 (2.120 service time after season)
    2011 (3.120 service time after season)

    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

    2015 FREE AGENT

  12. #161
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    I believe super-2 has no impact on FA date. Bruce would be under Reds control through 2014 regardless of whether he would be a super-2 or not this season.

  13. #162
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    Perfectly stated. With the added note that a great defensive play often has the reverse impact of giving up extra outs. Jacking up the pitching staff, improving the team morale and peaking the interest of the fans. The 2001 Mariners were indeed a thing of beauty to watch.
    Same thing with the 1999 Reds. Those were, arguably, the two best defensive teams of the past decade. They rank #1 and #2 in DER - .735 for the '01 Mariners and .731 for the '99 Reds.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. #163
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    I believe super-2 has no impact on FA date. Bruce would be under Reds control through 2014 regardless of whether he would be a super-2 or not this season.

    So if he got "super-2", he gets four years of arbitration, instead of three?

  15. #164
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Same thing with the 1999 Reds. Those were, arguably, the two best defensive teams of the past decade. They rank #1 and #2 in DER - .735 for the '01 Mariners and .731 for the '99 Reds.
    I didn't realize the '99 Reds rated that highly. If only I could think of the name of that guy that played CF for both of those teams

  16. #165
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    So if he got "super-2", he gets four years of arbitration, instead of three?
    correct


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