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Thread: Keppinger fractures knee

  1. #166
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Cyclone, I'm trying to explain this to a friend. Do I have this right?

    Let's say Bruce is called up in late May/early June and plays through the year, he will have something like 120 days of ML service (0.120).

    Next year he plays the whole season. By next late May/Early June when he hits the 1st anniversary of his call-up, his service time will be 1.000 (1 year). On the next day it will be 1.001 and he'll be sitting at 1.120 after the 2009 season and 2.120 after the 2010 season. Players get arbitration when they come into a year with 3 years (3.000) ML service time, but some get it if they are in the top 16% ("Super Two") of their group within year 2 (2.00-2.171) and nothing at or below 2.120 has ever made "Super Two".

    So, the Reds are getting Bruce for the major league minimum (400-500K) in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. If they had already called him up, he'd be past 2.120 after 2010 and could possibly get "super-two" status, which would mean arbitration in 2011 and a whole boatload of dollars if he is the player we think he'll be. It also means moving his free agency year up to 2014, instead of 2015.

    Otherwise, the arbitration clock starts in 2012 and also counts down to Free Agency.

    At this rate:

    2008 (0.120 service time after season)
    2009 (1.120 service time after season)
    2010 (2.120 service time after season)
    2011 (3.120 service time after season)

    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

    2015 FREE AGENT
    I think oregonred answered your main question, but this is the outline of the two scenarios here:

    Reds Wait to Promote Bruce: No Super-Two Scenario

    2008 (0.120 service time after season)
    2009 (1.120 service time after season)
    2010 (2.120 service time after season)
    2011 (3.120 service time after season)

    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

    ---------

    Reds Promote Bruce Now, He Becomes Super-Two

    2008 (0.135 service time after season)
    2009 (1.135 service time after season)
    2010 (2.135 service time after season)

    2011 Super-Two, gets arbitration year #1 (3.135 service time after season)
    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (4.135 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (5.135 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #4 (6.135 service time after season)

    ---------

    The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

    If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

    Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

    Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.
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  3. #167
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    correct
    then lets just get him up here now. he is on a roll and would be a big boost offensively and defensively (RF) to the Reds this year.
    .

  4. #168
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    then lets just get him up here now. he is on a roll and would be a big boost offensively and defensively (RF) to the Reds this year.
    Even if they were assured of not having to worry about "super two" by calling him up today, what to do with Griffey?

    Or are we advocating playing Bruce in CF? I'd rather have Bruce in RF and Patterson in CF than Bruce in CF and Griffey in RF.

    Griffey needs to be traded or benched and he's not going to be benched.

    It's a very delicate situation and these are the type of situations this franchise has failed at many times over the years in attempts to not hurt feelings.

  5. #169
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    As a tangent, concerning issues surrounding compensation (though super 2 doesn't affect free agency) contrast Bruce's potential situation with how Bavasi handled the call ups of Clement and Wlad. If Bavasi would've waited just another week to call them up, it would've essentially gave the Ms another year of control of each player due to service time issues.
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  6. #170
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Even if they were assured of not having to worry about "super two" by calling him up today, what to do with Griffey?

    Or are we advocating playing Bruce in CF? I'd rather have Bruce in RF and Patterson in CF than Bruce in CF and Griffey in RF.

    Griffey needs to be traded or benched and he's not going to be benched.

    It's a very delicate situation and these are the type of situations this franchise has failed at many times over the years in attempts to not hurt feelings.
    Get Griffey out of town ASAP and replace him with Bruce.
    If he rejects a trade then bench him. The Reds will win more games with Bruce in RF than Griffey.

    If Griffey's feelings get hurt by the Reds telling him the truth then his feelings get hurt. The man is 38 years old.

    I am actually on of the few that like Patterson in CF. I'd leave him there and play Bruce in RF.
    .

  7. #171
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    I sure hope Kepp gets back quick. He's been very, very good.
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  8. #172
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    I am actually on of the few that like Patterson in CF. I'd leave him there and play Bruce in RF.

    I don't think you'll find many people that disagree with that. His defense is outstanding but Dusty insists on hitting him first and Patterson can't find 1st base with a compass and a map.
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  9. #173
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I don't think you'll find many people that disagree with that. His defense is outstanding but Dusty insists on hitting him first and Patterson can't find 1st base with a compass and a map.
    OK. Batting him first is Dusty's issue not Patterson's. Patterson is OBP challenged but overall his OPS is .722 which is respectable for a great defensive centerfielder.
    .

  10. #174
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Sad to see that happen to Keppinger.

    My question is, what do we do with him next year if he isn't the SS?
    If he starts, it must be at SS or 2B. Otherwise, he is a utility man. Me, I play him at SS unless something better presents itself...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  11. #175
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    He takes Freel's spot as super utility man.

    He makes the bench that much better.

  12. #176
    Reds Slacker '07 RedsMan3203's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Sorry guys I cut out some pages here.... But......

    How about Phillips at SS.
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  13. #177
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Get Griffey out of town ASAP and replace him with Bruce.
    If he rejects a trade then bench him. The Reds will win more games with Bruce in RF than Griffey.

    If Griffey's feelings get hurt by the Reds telling him the truth then his feelings get hurt. The man is 38 years old.
    This is just not realistic at all.

  14. #178
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    This is just not realistic at all.
    That's been the problem with the Reds and Reds fans in a nutshell - the notion that you'd move out an unproductive old player in favor of a potentially wildly productive young player strikes them as being completely unrealistic.

    My take is until common sense becomes realistic expectation with this franchise, then winning baseball is just not realistic at all.
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  15. #179
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That's been the problem with the Reds and Reds fans in a nutshell - the notion that you'd move out an unproductive old player in favor of a potentially wildly productive young player strikes them as being completely unrealistic.

    My take is until common sense becomes realistic expectation with this franchise, then winning baseball is just not realistic at all.
    I'm not saying I'm not in favor of it, I'm just saying it's not realistic.

    KGJ is still a pretty big figure in Cincinnati and I don't think the Reds want to upset him in his last days here, regardless if it's the best thing for the team. This is especially true in a season perceived by many to already be a lost one. There's no easy answer, but I think the Reds would benefit from bringing Bruce up and having him in CF until they move Griffey.

  16. #180
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    OK. Batting him first is Dusty's issue not Patterson's. Patterson is OBP challenged but overall his OPS is .722 which is respectable for a great defensive centerfielder.

    It is, if he's batting lower in the order or has a fabulous OBP. It's not Patterson's fault Dusty bats him leadoff, of course. But it's like having Juan Castro on the roster. If he's on the roster, he's going to get used. If Patterson's on the roster, Dusty's going to hit him leadoff. What you want to do is take that temptation away from Dusty and not have him on the roster at all.
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