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Thread: Keppinger fractures knee

  1. #196
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    The lineup has so many lefties, and Dusty is so intent on not stacking them (to avoid media blowback, apparently), that we almost have to have a lefty leading off. I wouldn't be shocked to learn that Dusty bats Patterson leadoff because he needed Keppinger to break up the lefties down in the order. It's an obsession.

    I'd probably go:

    Freel
    Votto
    Dunn
    EE
    Junior
    Phillips
    Bako
    Janish
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #197
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    I want a winner. I could care less about #600.

    If the Reds cared about winning they'd ship him out as soon as possible, even if it is before #600.

    Heck, he would be easier to deal sitting a couple away from #600.

    Do. It. Now.

  4. #198
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

    If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

    Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

    Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.
    A couple of other variables in the equation:

    * Being a super-two doesn't just make him more expensive in that one year, it makes him more expensive in succeeding arbitration years also. Players are allowed to compare themselves to others in their "class," so if Bruce is a super-two and originally goes to arbitration before the 2011 season, he'll go into the 2012 season with the ability to compare himself to second-time arb-eligibles instead of first-time arb-eligibles, and that drives up the price of his comps.

    If we're lucky, he's as good as advertised and we lock him up long-term before then anyway.

    * There is no way to know for 100% certain whether a borderline player will be a super-two until the year it happens. History has shown that 2.120 has been the minimum, but it changes from year to year depending on the specific players involved because it's the top 17% of the two-year class. I wonder if that 2.120 figure might go down in future years as more teams play the game. If I remember right, most teams target June 1 as the "safe" date just to give themselves a little cushion.
    Not all who wander are lost

  5. #199
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It may end up being more like 2 weeks. A lot can happen in a week. I'm not saying I think he'll be moved right after, but I imagine the Reds at least want to see Griffey hit 600 with their ballclub. There's a lot of press and money involved with that.
    If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.

    GL

  6. #200
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.

    GL
    I don't disagree with that, but as I said, I can't imagine the Reds doing it.

  7. #201
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    If you want to maximize the return in a trade with SEA, I'd think getting him to them before he hits 600 would be huge. Let him hit 600 for them, nobody seems to care at all in Cincy.
    Exactly.

    Probably the best case scenario is Griffey not hitting any HR's until Bruce gets past the "super two" point (2 weeks) and then trade Griffey back to Seattle as he sits on 597 or 598.

    The Reds are on the hook for what 12 million in '08 (9 million left) and 4M option? Offer Seattle to pay the rest of his salary in '08 (9 million) for Clement.

  8. #202
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    4-6 weeks is actually better than I expected.
    me too. the fracture must be a crack or 'hairline' fracture. i have seen patients with patellas broken in half. Kep could have missed the rest of 2008 with a fracture like that.
    .

  9. #203
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Fanatic View Post
    According to John Fay the MRI came out like they expected. The official estimate is 4 to 6 weeks Keppinger will be out.
    I think it's 4 to 6 weeks before he can even do anything baseball related. Then there is the rehab/get back into baseball shape etc....

    Basically it'll be a lot longer than 4 weeks before he's back on the active roster.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #204
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Exactly.

    Probably the best case scenario is Griffey not hitting any HR's until Bruce gets past the "super two" point (2 weeks) and then trade Griffey back to Seattle as he sits on 597 or 598.

    The Reds are on the hook for what 12 million in '08 (9 million left) and 4M option? Offer Seattle to pay the rest of his salary in '08 (9 million) for Clement.
    There is no way Seattle would do that. Forget Clement.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #205
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    FWIW, Will Carroll over at BP has him expected out for 60 days. That strikes me as pretty realistic.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #206
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    . More importantly, I'm not sure how you go about determining which arms in the bullpen work and don't work until you put a reasonable defense behind them.
    I think Lincoln's pathetic showing tonight, for instance, is a perfect example of a dogcrap pitcher masquerading as a real option. Defense had nothing to do with that monstrosity. Burton and Bray also provide the fireworks on any given night.

    Lame group of arms down there.

  13. #207
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think Lincoln's pathetic showing tonight, for instance, is a perfect example of a dogcrap pitcher masquerading as a real option. Defense had nothing to do with that monstrosity. Burton and Bray also provide the fireworks on any given night.

    Lame group of arms down there.
    The former GM showed no ability to judge bullpen talent. When two non-roster invites make it and Majewski and Coffey continue to get opportunity after opportunity to get lit up, it makes me realize how much I don't miss the former GM.

  14. #208
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I think oregonred answered your main question, but this is the outline of the two scenarios here:

    Reds Wait to Promote Bruce: No Super-Two Scenario

    2008 (0.120 service time after season)
    2009 (1.120 service time after season)
    2010 (2.120 service time after season)
    2011 (3.120 service time after season)

    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #1 (4.120 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (5.120 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (6.120 service time after season)

    ---------

    Reds Promote Bruce Now, He Becomes Super-Two

    2008 (0.135 service time after season)
    2009 (1.135 service time after season)
    2010 (2.135 service time after season)

    2011 Super-Two, gets arbitration year #1 (3.135 service time after season)
    2012 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #2 (4.135 service time after season)
    2013 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #3 (5.135 service time after season)
    2014 over 3.000, gets arbitration -year #4 (6.135 service time after season)

    ---------

    The difference is basically the 2011 season and what the Reds will pay Bruce in that season.

    If he's not a Super-Two, then they'd pay him probably around 500k to a million bucks (most teams will pay a couple hundred thousand more to star players during those league min years as a sign of good faith).

    Or they bring him up now, he becomes Super-Two, and he goes to arbitration in 2011. Then the Reds could be paying him well ... who knows. Maybe $3 mil if hasn't produced much. Maybe $6 mil if he produces ok. Maybe $10 mil if he explodes.

    Free agent service time will not be affected. My guess is Bruce being a Super-Two would cost the Reds somewhere between $5-10 mil during the 2011 season. That's when fans have to ask themselves if two weeks of Bruce in May, 2008 is worth paying him an extra $5-10 mil in 2011.
    Agree with all of this, but who cares? The progressive teams lock these guys up before arb hits. I say bring him up now and lock him up after 2009 or 2010 at the latest. Players of Bruce caliber should really make this a non-issue.

    I think the issue is the monument in RF.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #209
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agree with all of this, but who cares? The progressive teams lock these guys up before arb hits. I say bring him up now and lock him up after 2009 or 2010 at the latest. Players of Bruce caliber should really make this a non-issue.

    I think the issue is the monument in RF.
    It's still an issue of saved money whether he's locked up early or not. Once Bruce is safely in the majors and not in risk of any demotion (ala an EE last year), then any agent should be able to safely determine Bruce's pay structure through his arbitration years. If Bruce is due to make league min in 2011 rather than arbit, it's actually more likely the Reds can work out a progressive deal with Bruce. The less money Bruce is due through the whole of his league min + arbit years, the better chance the Reds have of throwing some guaranteed money at him those years in exchange for buying out some FA years.
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