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Thread: Keppinger fractures knee

  1. #76
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    OK, forget Gonzalez for a second. My point isn't really to argue about him. What kind of numbers do you see Janish putting up this year? I'm gonna guess something like this:

    .235/.305/.340 = .645 OPS
    His ZiPS projection for 2008: .228/.294/.317 = .611 OPS

    People are saying they can live with poor hitting from Janish as long as he plays good defense. That's fine but we need to consider how bad Janish is going to be. If he can OPS .700 or so, I can get on board with him as a stopgap. But I think he is going to be considerably worse than that.
    I can live with poor hitting from Janish because I see no better alternative within. Janish is certainly worse than Keppinger--that much should be obvious with the way I trumpet Kepp. My point is basically that I think Janish will be roughly as productive a SS as AGon if he were available. What I would expect from each in 2008:

    Janish: .245/.315/.350 +10 runs defender
    AGon: .260/.315/.450 neutral defender
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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  3. #77
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    I wish all the best for Paul Janish, and I actually wanted him on the roster out of ST instead of Castro, but I don't think it's unreasonable to be skeptical that his glove can completely make up for his lack of stick.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but that's a complete void of stick that needs to be compensated by an Ozzie Smith kinda D.

  4. #78
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I wish all the best for Paul Janish, and I actually wanted him on the roster out of ST instead of Castro, but I don't think it's unreasonable to be skeptical that his glove can completely make up for his lack of stick.

    I hope he proves me wrong, but that's a complete void of stick that needs to be compensated by an Ozzie Smith kinda D.
    Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  5. #79
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Janish: .245/.315/.350 +10 runs defender
    AGon: .260/.315/.450 neutral defender
    I think the difference between those two bats is more than 10 runs. Just to eyeball it, your AGon projection is reasonably close to Khalil Greene's 2007 which was good for 86 runs created. Your Janish projection is (creepily) close to Felipe Lopez's 2007 which was good for 69 runs created. I think your Gonzalez is a little better than the Greene line so the gap would probably be about 20. Somebody who is more versed on this could certainly figure it out better than my rough guess. But my theory is that being a + 10 runs defender does not make up the hitting gap you are projecting - not to mention Janish being a +10 runs defender relative to Gonzalez is not at all established.

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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...
    NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.

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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    I think the difference between those two bats is more than 10 runs. Just to eyeball it, your AGon projection is reasonably close to Khalil Greene's 2007 which was good for 86 runs created. Your Janish projection is (creepily) close to Felipe Lopez's 2007 which was good for 69 runs created. I think your Gonzalez is a little better than the Greene line so the gap would probably be about 20. Somebody who is more versed on this could certainly figure it out better than my rough guess. But my theory is that being a + 10 runs defender does not make up the hitting gap you are projecting - not to mention Janish being a +10 runs defender relative to Gonzalez is not at all established.
    You could very well be correct as I am not sure either...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  8. #82
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.
    There is no way that Paul Janish's glove makes up for an NL average SS. I just don't see AGon as an NL average SS either, but AGon likely will still have him by a few runs. I still hate AGon's contract...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    NL average starting SS. If he comes up here and plays everyday his bat and glove should be measured relative to that.
    For some reason, I don't see Janish playing every day. I see Dusty giving more time to Hairston than anyone else at that position.

  10. #84
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    There is no way that Paul Janish's glove makes up for an NL average SS. I just don't see AGon as an NL average SS either, but AGon likely will still have him by a few runs. I still hate AGon's contract...
    MLB average starting SS for 2006 was .280/.336/.422, your projection for AGon is close to that. If he's got average defense, he's pretty average overall. I think your disdain for his contract is clouding your view of him.

    By the way I do think Janish should start over Jerry Hairston. My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS. I think if the Reds are still trying to win this year, they should evaluate how long Gonzalez is going to be out, and if it's going to be a while still they should look outside the organization for SS help. If they decide this season's a waste and it's not worth it to give up talent for address the SS position for a few months this year, I can live with that decision. As long as they don't think SS is no problem because Janish's defense is good.

  11. #85
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    For some reason, I don't see Janish playing every day. I see Dusty giving more time to Hairston than anyone else at that position.
    I think you are right. And I also think Hairston's defense at SS will have me begging for Janish and his .650 OPS.

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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    MLB average starting SS for 2006 was .280/.336/.422, your projection for AGon is close to that. If he's got average defense, he's pretty average overall. I think your disdain for his contract is clouding your view of him.

    By the way I do think Janish should start over Jerry Hairston. My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS. I think if the Reds are still trying to win this year, they should evaluate how long Gonzalez is going to be out, and if it's going to be a while still they should look outside the organization for SS help. If they decide this season's a waste and it's not worth it to give up talent for address the SS position for a few months this year, I can live with that decision. As long as they don't think SS is no problem because Janish's defense is good.
    I concede that AGon is pretty damn close to an average SS. You are right that I likely clouded my judgement...

    So, playing Janish will cost the Reds about 5 runs or half of a win compared to an average SS over the next two months? 1. What SS outside of the organization can do better? 2. Is it worth it to surrender the talent?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #87
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Who's offense is his glove compensating for? Keppinger? AGon? Castro? Hairston? NL average SS? Anyone feel free to clarify...
    All of the above.

    Castro is probably the only guy on that list that is offensively worse than Janish.

    Defensively, Janish should trump all of them.

    However, Keppinger was the incumbent @ SS, so Janish's glove now has to compensate for the absence of Keppinger in the lineup.

  14. #88
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    My position is just that Janish is not an acceptable starter at SS.
    There really aren't a lot of teams out there that can lose a player at a premium defensive position and have an 'acceptable' starter waiting to take over.

    Unless they've got a hot shot kid waiting in the wings at AAA, most teams backups at CF, SS, and C are pretty bad -- either judy hitting or playing defensively out of position.
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Paul Janish will clearly not be a slugger at SS; I don't think there is any disputing that. I also don't think he will provide the offense Keppinger or Gonzalez might be able to. However, as long as he plays good defense and can have a BA around .260 and a fairly acceptable OBP, I am willing to accept him as a starting shortstop in the short term.

  16. #90
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    Re: Keppinger fractures knee

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    2. Is it worth it to surrender the talent?
    I don't know. Probably not. I'd imagine it takes a lot to get a decent SS in-season. 2009 should be the target for winning, and giving up talent that could help you then seems like a bad idea. For your first question, I'd have no idea where to look as my baseball knowledge is pretty limited to the Reds.

    And Caveat, you may be right, but the Reds were one of those rare teams with depth since Kepp was really the insurance policy for Gonzalez (or the other way around, however you want to look at it).


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