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Thread: Last Year, On this Date

  1. #1
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Last Year, On this Date

    5/13/07

    Reds were 15-23, RS-176 RA-178

    5/13/08
    Reds are 17-23, RS-175 RA-201


    Just thought it was interesting.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, Bronson Arroyo, and Josh Fogg are the main culprits for that differential IMO. Coffey is gone and has been replaced with a better arm in Bray IMO. Fogg should be gone soon as the Rockies have expressed interest in him. Arroyo pitched better his last time out and you would like to think his numbers will normalize. I suspect Belisle will either be shifted into the long reliever role or sent back to AAA if he struggles again on Thursday. IMO this team isn't as bad as their record or run differential indicates. The offense is starting to heat up and the defense/pitching should improve if/when Griffey is traded and replaced with Bruce. Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.
    OK Crazy.

  5. #4
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    5/13/07

    Reds were 15-23, RS-176 RA-178

    5/13/08
    Reds are 17-23, RS-175 RA-201


    Just thought it was interesting.
    Same offense, worse pitching. Yet the record is slightly better. Maybe if the pitching gets EVEN worse, the record will improve more!

  6. #5
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, Bronson Arroyo, and Josh Fogg are the main culprits for that differential IMO. Coffey is gone and has been replaced with a better arm in Bray IMO. Fogg should be gone soon as the Rockies have expressed interest in him. Arroyo pitched better his last time out and you would like to think his numbers will normalize. I suspect Belisle will either be shifted into the long reliever role or sent back to AAA if he struggles again on Thursday. IMO this team isn't as bad as their record or run differential indicates. The offense is starting to heat up and the defense/pitching should improve if/when Griffey is traded and replaced with Bruce. Call me crazy but I think this team can turn it around and finish above .500.
    I think you have to throw Cueto in there too (when has he been any good since the first series or two of the season?) as well as Burton, who has been abysmal as well.

    Basically the pitching stinks sans Harang and Volquez, and they can't score runs - so they lose more than they win. Same old Reds we've seen for the last 7 years.

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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Same offense, worse pitching.

    I'd argue both are worse, just that the pitching's a bit more worse (or less good) or whatever. And the defense similarly bad.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Funny the perception is that the pitching is better, and the offense is worse. I think the reality is that the pitching is perceived differently because it is on the verge of geting better - people are seeing the hope for better things coming, while the offense seems worse because it seems poised to go straight down the tubes with only Bruce to help.

  9. #8
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackerJack View Post
    I think you have to throw Cueto in there too (when has he been any good since the first series or two of the season?) as well as Burton, who has been abysmal as well.

    Basically the pitching stinks sans Harang and Volquez, and they can't score runs - so they lose more than they win. Same old Reds we've seen for the last 7 years.
    Cueto pitched good against the best offensive team in the NL (Cubs) last week. I didn't list him because he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests. Someone with a 11 BB/46 K ratio in 45.2 innings shouldn't have an ERA just under six. As for Burton, yeah he's had some rough outings of late but he's got a nice K/BB ratio and should be OK IMO.

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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    I think the pitching is better. Not good, but better.

    Looking at the early 2007 numbers gives one, I think, a somewhat unrealistic picture of the Reds overall pitching last year. The team pitched great in April. Team ERA was 3.80 in April 2007.

    But the pitching fell apart by the end of May. The May 2007 team ERA was a delightful 5.48.

    By the all-star break, the team ERA was 4.77 (compared to a league average of 4.28). By the end of the season, the team ERA was 4.94, compared to league average 4.43.

    Today the Reds team ERA is 4.69. This is better than last year's full season ERA in absolute terms. Some folks like to compare to league average -- today's ERA compares to league average about the same as last year's overall team ERA.

    And even if the pitching is worse, which I don't think it is, the infusion of young arms is a major plus. I'll take this year's pitching staff any day of the week and twice on Sunday for a doubleheader.

  11. #10
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think the pitching is better. Not good, but better.
    Me too. Problem is, I think the defense is even worse than last year, and it's making the pitching staff look much worse than it actually is.

  12. #11
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cueto pitched good against the best offensive team in the NL (Cubs) last week. I didn't list him because he's pitched much better than his ERA suggests. Someone with a 11 BB/46 K ratio in 45.2 innings shouldn't have an ERA just under six. As for Burton, yeah he's had some rough outings of late but he's got a nice K/BB ratio and should be OK IMO.
    Sure I agree the K/BB ratio's and upside of those two are still intact. I guess everyone's waiting around for Burton/Cueto to start improving on the ERA front and that of course is affecting the RS/RA ratio.

    IF they turn it around soon then there's hope, but, still waiting.

    I guess Affeldt could be thrown in there too.

    I suppose there's still hope left that at least this year, they can turn it around with some better pitching and if the offense starts to play like it's capable of. (losing Keep obviously doesn't help at all)

    Last year, none of that was really bound to happen. So I will agree there's at least some hope this year as opposed to last.

    But I think a lot of people would also agree a relatively major purge still needs to occur and another Bat and a few arms are still needed if they want to contend?

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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    The biggest ignis fatuus is this team's pitching. The K totals have completely hypnotized the fan base into thinking that overall, the MLB pitching is better. It really, really isn't.

  14. #13
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    My take is last year at this time the Reds were a team destined to play worse. This year I think the team is destined to play better. It may not be a good team in the final analysis, but the things it does well and the things it can do better should add up to better overall performance.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #14
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Last April was filled with a bunch 35 degree games that helped the pitching. Weather warmed up, the pitching went south - especially the pen and Lohse showed his real self after a hot start in cold weather.

    This year's staff is far better. No Lohse, no Milton, No Saarloos, No Stanton, ...

    The Reds have 6 starters in 2008 that are all better than all but two of the guys from 2007. Cordero and Affeldt are big upgrades from Saarloos/Coffey and Stanton. Burton this year is better than Burton of 07. Mercker/Bray are way better than Shackelford/Coutlangus. Lincoln is better than McBeth. There is just no comparison in the talent of the two teams. This year some guys are performing at their worst and compare favorably with guys who were pitching well above their heads at this time in 2007.

    I'm still lukewarm at best on this team's bullpen, but its light years ahead of the trash that was there in 2007. The Saarloos/Stanton duo may have been the worst pair of RH/LH middle guys in the league. These weren't mop up men, but primary pieces to the puzzle.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #15
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    Re: Last Year, On this Date

    Does this show Dusty is a better manager then Narron?
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman


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