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Thread: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

  1. #1
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    How much of an effect does GABP have on Dunn's value? He would most likely be hitting under 40 home runs for the past few years, have less than 100 RBIs, a high K rate, and terrible defense.

    I agree that most of Dunn's HRs would be gone anywhere, but I think you could shave a few off of his totals.

    I think we are overpaying for Dunn, and we should unload him ASAP because he isn't the player everyone thinks he is. 6 Homers this far into the season is also somewhat scary....

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by redsrule2500; 05-14-2008 at 03:38 PM.
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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    How much of an effect does GABP have on Dunn's value? He would most likely be hitting under 40 home runs for the past few years, have less than 100 RBIs, a high K rate, and terrible defense.

    I think we are overpaying for Dunn, and we should unload him ASAP because he isn't the player everyone thinks he is. 6 Homers this far into the season is also somewhat scary....

    Thoughts?
    1. i think a lot of Dunn's homers would be out anywhere. GABP probably has less effect on his numbers than say Hat or Phillips

    2. i think he is a very good offensive player

    3. he is terrible defensively.

    4. IMO he is lazy

    5. i will be happy when he is gone
    .

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Dunn's power could play in any park. Very, very little of his homeruns are wall scrapers or cheap GABP homeruns. In 2006 the Reds played a three games series in Comerica Park and Dunn went 4-for-12 with a double and two homeruns. Since Petco Park (probably the best pitchers park in baseball) opened in 2004, Dunn has hit five homeruns in 46 atbats there. Those big parks haven't hurt Dunn before and never will - he's one of the few guys who has the power to hit 40+ homeruns no matter what ballpark he plays in.

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    How much of an effect does GABP have on Dunn's value? He would most likely be hitting under 40 home runs for the past few years, have less than 100 RBIs, a high K rate, and terrible defense.

    I think we are overpaying for Dunn, and we should unload him ASAP because he isn't the player everyone thinks he is. 6 Homers this far into the season is also somewhat scary....

    Thoughts?

    So Dunn's a product of GABP?

    That's a new one from the anti-Dunn crowd.

    So far in 2008, he's actually putting up better numbers on the road, than at GABP.

    Code:
    Dunn Year by Year Road vs Home OPS Splits
    
    Year		Home		Away
    2008*		.683		.796
    2007		.965		.916
    2006		.864		.847
    2005		1.057		.805
    2004		.990		.925
    2003		.888		.740
    2002		.896		.814
    
    * = to date
    2005 and 2003 are the only years that actually support any claim that Dunn is a product of GABP. All of the other years, any difference in the Home vs Road isn't enough to write home to Mom about.

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    Member harangatang's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    How much of an effect does GABP have on Dunn's value? He would most likely be hitting under 40 home runs for the past few years, have less than 100 RBIs, a high K rate, and terrible defense.

    I agree that most of Dunn's HRs would be gone anywhere, but I think you could shave a few off of his totals.
    I think would benefit from having protection in the lineup in Detroit and the park factor would become moot.

  7. #6
    Member CTA513's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    If he played in Detroit he could DH.

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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    2005 and 2003 are the only years that actually support any claim that Dunn is a product of GABP. All of the other years, any difference in the Home vs Road isn't enough to write home to Mom about.
    It's one of the best hitters parks around. It stands to reason it would help him, just like it would help every hitter. 2008 is the anomaly, and it's likely to change.

    So Dunn's a product of GABP?

    That's a new one from the anti-Dunn crowd.
    Relax. One poster suggests Dunn would have less value if he played in a pitchers park (perfectly sane conjecture), and you're running to the rescue against "the anti-Dunn crowd." Talk about polarizing analysis.......
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Relax. One poster suggests Dunn would have less value if he played in a pitchers park (perfectly sane conjecture), and you're running to the rescue against "the anti-Dunn crowd." Talk about polarizing analysis.......
    Simply put there is an anti Dunn crowd. And a pro Dunn crowd. He IS polarizing, perhaps more than any player I've seen. Things like "IMHO opinion he's lazy". At least Will took pains to make it his opinion. That sort of thing is simply stated as fact too often. Not too long ago we had the poster who claimed without a bit of evidence he was hung over because reports said he was feeling under the weather and that was supposedly code that he was drunk the night before. It just seems difficult to have a rational discussion of Adam Dunn. I read these posts hoping to glean something new but its generally its the same old stuff ad infinitum.

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    4. IMO he is lazy
    I hear he's mean to puppies and kicks old ladies.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    I think we are overpaying for Dunn
    If you think he's expensive now, wait until you see what he gets on the free agent market.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Member kbrake's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    I really don't get why Dunn is such a polarizing figure. This team would be so much better next year if Dunn stays. Its not like Adam Dunn is Eric Milton and he is holding this team back. I know alot of people here think this team is a few years away, I think they could be good next year. An offense built around Dunn is a good start.

    Though if Dusty continues to show he has no clue how to use an Adam Dunn, as much as it kills me to say, maybe it is just better off for everyone to move on.

  13. #12
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    How much of an effect does GABP have on Dunn's value? He would most likely be hitting under 40 home runs for the past few years, have less than 100 RBIs, a high K rate, and terrible defense.

    I agree that most of Dunn's HRs would be gone anywhere, but I think you could shave a few off of his totals.

    I think we are overpaying for Dunn, and we should unload him ASAP because he isn't the player everyone thinks he is. 6 Homers this far into the season is also somewhat scary....

    Thoughts?
    I think Dunn would have even better numbers playing in Detroit than he does in Cincy.

    Detroit has a much better offensive team than the Reds do. Opposing pitchers would actually have to pitch to him because of all the excellent hitters in the Tigers' lineup. Whenever Dunn would hit a home run it would be much more likely that someone would be on base.

    Jim Leyland would be more likely to use Dunn properly and put him higher in the lineup, which would mean Dunn would get more plate appearances and hence more homers. Since the Tigers have better hitters and their pitcher doesn't bat they cycle through the batting lineup more frequently, which would get Dunn even more plate appearances.

    For those reasons I think Dunn would have more home runs and more RBIs and more runs scored in Detroit than here in Cincy.

    The Tigers also recently released their left fielder, Jacque Jones. I am sure the Tigers (like most teams) would love to upgrade their lineup with the acquisition of a young slugger the likes of Adam Dunn.

  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    For better or worse, players get judged not just by what they've done, but by how what they've done compares to expectations.

    Unfortunately expectations get set in ways that are more or less realistic. Dunn in particular has expectations that are almost unattainable. No matter what he does, he's not doing enough. In particular, his strengths (power, ability to draw walks) are things that are typically considered inherited versus earned and visa versa with his weaknesses (defense, contact hitting). Thus, he was destined to both inspire great expectation and provide production that is undervalued.

    It's a viscous combination and I expect it will follow him throughout his career. People will perceive him as lazy for striking out and playing poor defense and fail to give him sufficient credit for his power and ability to get on base.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #14
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Of course he would have more value in Detroit! He would have so many more RBI's--he would truly be a 'run producer' in the middle of the order (but he would still suck in 'clutch' situations!)...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Would Dunn be as valued if he played in Detroit?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I hear he's mean to puppies and kicks old ladies.
    Who doesn't do that? Its my favorite past time.


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