That may be true, we'll see. I go by BA, MiLB and MLB stuff, and unless at least one of them says that the top 7 has separated from the pack, I'm not going to feel that Crow, Smoak, Hosmer and G. Beckham are clearly better picks than a guy like Wallace.Meanwhile Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Posey, Smoak and the Beckhams are becoming a consensus top 7. The Reds should get one of them.
If the Reds draft a first baseman I hope it's Justin Smoak. He's a switch-hitter and has plus power from both sides of the plate, has good plate discipline, and is a decent defender at first base. His plus power from both sides of the plate has drawn comparisons to Lance Berkman.
The awesome 1997 Draft:Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
14) Reds - Brandon Larson SS
16) Astros - Lance Berkman 1B
You mean you wouldn't draft the great Brandon Larson over Lance Berkman? Next you'll be telling me the Reds should have drafted that Derek Jeter guy instead of Chad Mottola.
Saber scouting says there have been strong rumors of Casey Kelly to the Reds at #7. Casey Kelly is the son of Pat Kelly, who was briefly the Reds bench coach last season under Pete Machanin.
Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota HS
We’ll get started with senior and top 2008 draft prospect Casey Kelly and his Sarasota Sailors, who also surprisingly lost in the second round of the state playoffs to Lakeland HS (ongoing theme from part two of the recap series with Mychal Gives’ Plant HS being upset in round two). I saw Kelly’s first round game versus Gaither HS, checking in to see Kelly one more time before his season ended.
As mentioned repeatedly here, here, and here Kelly has all the makings of a face-of-the-franchise shortstop that, at 6′3, can already play a near big-league caliber shortstop and has a full ride to Tennessee to play QB.
He has reached the mid-90s on the mound and flashes a consistent plus breaking ball as a first-round caliber prospect on the mound. The only question that remains is how his bat plays. With talk of an out-of-the-box deal to a big market team at the end of the first round and strong rumors of him going as high at #7 to Cincinnati, it appears many teams are buying.
For me, I buy the plus defense, plus arm, above-average wheels and plus-plus makeup; it’s hard no to. I think a power projection could be anywhere from average to plus, closer to plus on the raw power side, because he’s got great bat speed, body torque, and some loft. For reference, plus/60 converts to 20-23 HR power and the ability to take the ball out to dead centerfield in a big league park, with a wood bat.
The real question is on the ability to make contact and I’m still undecided to a degree. I’ll post a full scouting report once I finish with the part three of the News & Notes columns with an FSL recap. To tide you over until then, I made a compilation of some pitching and hitting clips I have taken of Kelly into one video. Sorry, no defensive clips since I didn’t feel like recording the entire game, you’ll just have to take my word for it.
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05...art3/#more-186
Kelly wouldn't be a bad pick but again, I prefer one of: Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Gordon Beckham, Matusz, Crow, Smoak, or Posey.
Other reports on Kelly:
One last player doing all he can move up in the first round is Sarasota (FL) High SS Casey Kelly. Like Smoak, he’s been on watch lists for this draft for two years and also like Smoak, coming into the season scouts started knocking parts of his game almost because they saw him too much and had to think of something different to say after awhile. He’s gained some momentum this spring with his silky-smooth defense and his athletic 6′3 frame. There are no doubts he’ll stick at shortstop and some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. (I saw him at the Sarasota Classic—scouting report on the way—and do not disagree). Along with a sound approach at the plate, a history of hitting versus good competition, and a dynamic personality, Kelly has endeared himself to scouts and drawn some Derek Jeter comparisons. Kelly also showed a low 90’s fastball and flashed a plus slider on the mound this weekend with multiple team executives in attendance. There are teams in the mid first-round showing heavy interest and with franchise shortstop upside and a scholarship to play QB at Tennessee in the fall, he may be a candidate for an out-of-the-box deal to teams like Detroit or the Yankees.
And another:
The last player of the top prospect cavalcade in Sarasota was the aforementioned hometown SS Casey Kelly. Kelly has been atop prospects lists for the 2008 Draft since he was a sophomore at the powerhouse Sarasota High. Now it’s due-or-die time to convince scouts he is the premium prospect they’ve been saying he will be and he’s succeeding thus far. Projections range from as high as 10th overall down to the sandwich round, but a team somewhere in that range will certainly take an athletic 6′3 shortstop that is close to MLB-ready defensively right now and has a long track record of success hitting against good competition. The team that pops him will be the one that believes most in his bat, which could unlock his star potential.
http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/05...art3/#more-186
I remember really liking Larson when he was at LSU.
Casey Kelly would be no surprise, given that his dad works for the team -- I'm a little wary of a high schooler who has bat questions, though. Still, the reports folks have posted are pretty darn glowing. I have to wonder if they'd go Kelly alongside another high schooler, Juan Duran, as their top two amateur purchases this year......
My guess is the Reds are telling people they like players more likely to get picked in the latter first round so as not to create any additional buzz for whatever top-rated guy they do want. I'd be shocked if they picked either Kelly or Wallace.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
This doesn't jive with the Buckley "up the middle" MO. I have a hard time believing he'd pick a player that will be athletically limited to one position in the majors.
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
ADOPT THIS SIGNATURE IN SOLIDARITY!!!
I'm up for Gordon if his wife Victoria comes along.
Why wouldn't he be a good pick at 7? Let's say the best available are Hosmer, Crow and those projected behind them. That IMO would make for an interesting possibility. Even if his contact issues cannot be helped his defense, projected pop, sound approach at the plate and intangibles make him as good as G. Beckham too me. Assuming of course this is a good report.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
The thing to remember with scouting reports is they rarely detail what's wrong with the kid. For instance, Kelly's pretty much got Matt Bush's scouting report.
My standard advice is if there's a HS player and his bat isn't drawing raves and thorough explanations about how his offensive game is suited to translate to pro ball (e.g. like these Kelly scouting reports), then it's a big red flag and don't even think about taking him in the top 10 picks.
Also beware of obvious hyperbole - e.g. "some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now." No, he can't and if the scouting report is going to embrace that kind of fiction then you've got to wonder what other flights of fancy it contains.
Sounds like Kelly's an athletic kid with height and plus defensive tools, but who doesn't have a particularly promising swing. While I might be inclined to pounce on that in the mid-to-latter first round, no way would I draft it at #7.
Last edited by M2; 05-15-2008 at 04:55 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Hum, makes sense. What about then one of those arms in the top 10ish in the 1st and hope Kelly could fall to us in the 2nd? Or do we have a sandwich pick this year???
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Disregard I forgot about Cordero costing us a 2nd rounder and no Sandwich pick either. Crap!
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
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