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Thread: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

  1. #1
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    The last six games have been very successful for the Reds. They won 4 of 6 and three in a row, but the same script we've followed for several years is happening again. The bullpen is failing us.

    In the six game run, Reds starters have done rather well:

    IP - 37.2
    H - 38
    ER - 17
    BB - 15
    SO -30
    HR - 5
    ERA-4.06

    Take out horrible starts by Belisle and Cueto (9.2 innings of 15 hits and 11 earned runs), and it's exemplary. The bullpen is another story:

    IP - 15.1
    H - 20
    ER - 16
    BB - 8
    SO - 17
    HR - 4
    ERA-9.41

    Of the six relievers who have pitched in this span, only Affeldt has pitched well in three appearances. Bray, Codero, Burton, and Weathers have been pitching batting practice. Lincoln has been simply horrible (3 IP allowing 6 hits and 8 runs).

    Wayne Krivsky tried everything and it didn't work. It's still not working. Bray and Burton are not ready for prime time, Weathers is over the hill, and Lincoln should get a one way ticket to DFA land. Cordero will be OK if used correctly.

    How long has the bullpen been our downfall? I've lost count of the years.
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  3. #2
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.
    I don't know about Cordero. Of course you can't argue with his results sans tonight but he has had an awful lot of pitches just scolded lately but fortunately right at people. And his control has been a bit suspect as well, although with the Marlins it wasn't as apparent because they tend to be free-swingers. It should be interesting to see going forward if these things continue or it was just a "slump" but one that wasn't apparent because of decent defensive play and good fortune.
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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bray has looked pretty good in his last two appearances and Burton has be inconsistent but you gotta like the 6 BB/23 K ratio in 17 innings. I wouldn't write those two guys off just yet. Lincoln is struggling and beginning to comeback down to earth. Weathers has struggled all year. Affeldt has been very good as has Cordero with the exception of tonight. Look for Roenicke to be called up at some point and provide the Reds with another power arm in the pen.
    No offense, OBM, but being old school, I look at two things when I evaluate a reliever--how many hits he gives up and how hard the batted ball is hit. the BB/K ratio is nice, but when you're giving up double the number of hits as innings pitched (and those hits were scalded) and nearly a run an inning pitched, I could care less about the ratio. He's not getting the job done.
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    No doubt, it's not very good. I think Weathers has looked pretty good though since returning, but he's obviously not a long-term option. Affeldt has looked like the most consistent so far this year.

    To really be a threat, the Reds have to find a Heath Bell kind of reliever for the backend. Even a Cla Meredith type would do. To really be a force, you're going to need another big boy (preferably 2) in the pen.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    No offense, OBM, but being old school, I look at two things when I evaluate a reliever--how many hits he gives up and how hard the batted ball is hit. the BB/K ratio is nice, but when you're giving up double the number of hits as innings pitched (and those hits were scalded) and nearly a run an inning pitched, I could care less about the ratio. He's not getting the job done.
    The Reds awful defense plays a big part in the high hit totals.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    No doubt, it's not very good. I think Weathers has looked pretty good though since returning, but he's obviously not a long-term option. Affeldt has looked like the most consistent so far this year.

    To really be a threat, the Reds have to find a Heath Bell kind of reliever for the backend. Even a Cla Meredith type would do. To really be a force, you're going to need another big boy (preferably 2) in the pen.
    I may be just a little short on these stastics, but I have Weathers down for 4.2 innings allowing 6 hits and three runs since his return. Hardly anything to write home about or brag about, but he has looked better.

    I agree that a Bell or Meredith is what we need. The great failing of the Krivksy administration, regardless of how you feel about what he did with the minors (which I feel is highly overrated) or his effort in getting players, was he could not judge pitching. The list is long of the ones he obtained to "fix" it and it has been a total failure. We just have to hope for better times and better decisions.
    Last edited by WVRedsFan; 05-15-2008 at 02:20 AM.
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    I may be just a little short on these stastics, but I have Weathers down for 4.2 innings allowing 6 hits and three runs since his return. Hardly anything to write home about or brag about, but he has looked better.

    I agree that a Bell or Meredith is what we need. The great failing of the Krivksy administration, regardless of how you feel about what he did with the minors (which I feel is highly overrated) or his effort in getting players, was he could not judge pitching. The list is long of the ones he obtained to "fix" it and it has been a total failure. We just have to hope for better times and better decisions.
    Weathers has not been great, but his numbers look a lot better since coming back from the DL...

    He's had 7 strikeouts in 4.2 innings with only 1 walk. ERA is 3.86. He's given up 2 ER (1 of which was a homer). It's a smaller sample size, but it's more on par with what he was last season than the first part of this season.

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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

    Last year we lost 31 of such games.

    There's certainly something better going on here.

  11. #10
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    For those that know much more than I...

    How legitimately close to ready is Josh Roenicke??...what are his current numbers in Louisville??...what makes him more capable of being more than an AAAA pitcher than, let's say McBeth, Magic Man, or Coffey??...

    thanks for the info...


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    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

    Last year we lost 31 of such games.

    There's certainly something better going on here.
    Very good point, PP.

    Again, its a conversation I have had across a number of threads critical of the staff so far. Its weird, but there feels like a disconnect between the numbers and what we see from them as the season has progressed. I think in large measure that has to do with this being a staff that misses a ton more bats than previous editions have. As long as they keep doing that, I really do think the rest of the numbers will improve, and improve rapidly. Remove some chaff from the back of the pen, and that will help too.

    But the core of a very good staff is in place, and there is no reason this team still can't make it .500 or slightly better, which was the prediction from most of the level-headed folk on this site. I see progress. I just do.

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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Roenicke is at AA and has not been lights out this year. He's not ready. The reinforcements at Louisville include lefty Herrera and, yes, Majewski who actually has pitched very well of late. There may be some others I'm leaving out.

    I think the pen will be ok. Again, not great, but ok.

    Cordero has pitched great except last night which was his third straight game. He basically made one bad pitch. One terrible pitch. Hopefully he rests tonight.

    Weathers seems to be rounding into shape and I expect better things from him. For this year, don't see him going beyond this year.

    Affeldt has been fine. Dusty seems reluctant to use him this series since Fla is very right handed at the plate.

    Burton and Bray are works in progress. Young relievers with good stuff. You have to stick with them and let them take their lumps some times. Talented guys, though.

    That leaves Fogg and Lincoln. Fogg is a long man, essentially a sixth starter, who is there really for emergency innings eating. Not a big deal, he's really an insurance policy.

    Lincoln has had some bad outings and his numbers aren't good. He's the guy I could see moving. But in his defense, he's pitched some good outings and did well last night with a perfect eighth until the ninth inning melt down. Yes, it would be great if he were replaced by a higher end reliever, like a Heath Bell type.

    This bullpen would be better if Burton and Bray were better established guys, more consistent. But you need to give young relievers a chance. I think they'll be good eventually.

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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The Reds have won every game this year that they have led after 6 innings.

    Last year we lost 31 of such games.

    There's certainly something better going on here.
    Pretty much sums it up for me.

    I don't know the numbers (and I'm too tired to look them up) but I'm going to guess that in a lot of the games where the BP has been teh suck, the Reds offense was even worse, so it really was a non-issue, no?

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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    Quote Originally Posted by SirFelixCat View Post
    Pretty much sums it up for me.

    I don't know the numbers (and I'm too tired to look them up) but I'm going to guess that in a lot of the games where the BP has been teh suck, the Reds offense was even worse, so it really was a non-issue, no?
    Last night was the first time that I thought all year that the bullpen really let us down big time.

    It will happen from time to time. Most of the bullpen beatings have occured in games we were losing, and they made it impossible to come back.

    The biggest obstacle to us having an OK pitching staff is the defense which allows way too many balls hit into play to become hits. You change that BABIP from .326 to a more normal .296 and you've made every pitcher that much better.

    If Bruce can repalce Griffey, along with Janish replacing Keppinger, should help out in that regard. An OF of Dunn, Patterson and Bruce is likely league average (and maybe even better) on defense. Our existing offense defense is likely the worst in the majors in turning BIP into outs,especially when Patterson doesn't play.

  16. #15
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: It's the Bullpen, Stupid...

    I am definitely tired of balls falling for singles into RF because Jr. can't move quickly enough to get to the sinking line drives anymore.


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