Brett Wallace at pick #7?

[redhawk61]

According to Johnathan Mayo in his Mock first 10 picks, he says thee is a buzz going around that we really like this kid.

He supposedly is the best bat in the draft but is limited defensively to only 1b

Here is a little summary:

Drawing rave reviews for his work in the box, he's one of the best hitters in college and perhaps in the entire Draft class. His unbelievable plate discipline will undoubtedly be attractive to some teams, though it's unlikely he'll play anything but first as a pro. He could be the kind of Major Leaguer who hits .300 with 25 homers and a high OBP annually.

web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace

[Red_BlueDevil]

Looks like Mr. Wallace has started a blog on his perspective leading up to the draft. See http://08draft.mlblogs.com/

[lollipopcurve]

Looks to have a quick bat and nice power. Would be a very safe pick.

[OesterPoster]

According to Jim Callis, he thinks Wallace isn't a top 10 talent. This is from thecollegebaseballblog.


Jonathan (GA): Jim, I have read/heard that Brett Wallace does not have the power potential that Smoak does…from the USA games and his college numbers, how are questions about his power justified? Is it because his body is essentially maxed out?

Jim Callis: Wallace is having a great year, batting .448 with seven homers in 18 games. But it’s not all about the numbers, especially in college baseball, where the competition varies and they’re using metal bats. Scouts believe Wallace has more of a line-drive swing than a true power stroke, and if he plays first base (like they expect he will), that’s somewhat of an issue. That said, it’s not like scouts don’t like Wallace a lot. At worst, I think he’s a sandwich-round pick in June, and that’s at worst.

* The consensus seems to be that Wallace is more of a linedrive hitter who will hit for average..from the video I have seen, I would agree. However, his bat speed is above average, so it is not as if he cannot hit HR, it is more that he would need to add loft to his swing.

I am with Callis, he isn’t going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrassment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions…knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.

[Cyclone792]

Wallace has 719 college PAs with 95 walks. That's a 7.57 walk rate, good for 79 walks every 600 PAs. His walk rate this season in college is 5.93, good for 101 walks every 600 PAs.

He would be a safe pick via a high OBP through a decent BA and a good walk rate. His power ceiling may be difficult, at best, to identify as hitters of his type can sometimes develop power late.

This is the kind of guy I'd be absolutely drooling all over if he was a decent defender at a more important position.

[lollipopcurve]

I am with Callis, he isn’t going to be a top 10 pick. If he could stay at 3B his value would increase, so he is a 1B who could hit for well over .300, but what is his power output?? With the embarrassment of riches at the 1B position this June, I think teams will go for pitching or other positions…knowing they can potentially still get Wallace or Dykstra in the supp. round.

Don't know about Dykstra, but no way Wallace drops out of the 1st round. College hitters are generally safe picks, and this kid, with his great plate discipline, is extra safe. LH sock is going to be an organizational weakness after Bruce is promoted (Francisco will be the only prospect, and he's pretty iffy). My guess is Wallace would be MLB-ready on a fast track and would give the Reds some return from a draft where they're a bit vulnerable (no 2nd rounder, no supplementals).

[M2]

In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

[lollipopcurve]

This is the kind of guy I'd be absolutely drooling all over if he was a decent defender at a more important position.

Wishing for the moon. Generally, these types of players hit first, defend later. You like him better than Gordon Beckham?

[membengal]

I definitely don't want to see the Reds reach this time around. Take the best looking chalk on the board and move on.

[lollipopcurve]

In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

I agree that Wallace is a lesser pick than some of these guys (Posey, T. Beckham, Matusz, Alvarez). But after that, I can't be sure. For example, Wallace was better than Smoak by a sizeable margin for Team USA last summer -- run them out against the same pitchers, and it seems to me you have a nice comparison. Statistically this year, Wallace is right there with Smoak and Alonso, and Hosmer, though a very solid HS bat, is a bit of a projection. The fact that Wallace has played 3rd this year (and stolen 14 bags in 17 tries) suggests he's got a bit more natural athleticism than the others, and while his very large legs will surely slow him down before too long, I think you have to consider that a plus for him.

Pitchers are pitchers -- riskier than hitters. And neither Scheppers nor Hunt has the polish or repertoire to have established themselves as obvious starter material (both may end better suited for the pen). Scheppers has had a tender elbow lately, too.

So.... Baseball America lists are only worth so much. They will likely publish a revised ranking of prospects before the draft, too. Ultimately, the difference between a #7 rated player and a #17 may be entirely subjective.

[Cyclone792]

Wishing for the moon. Generally, these types of players hit first, defend later. You like him better than Gordon Beckham?

No I'd take Gordon Beckham over Wallace, even though there's a chance that Beckham would get moved off shortstop. Wallace is the kind of guy where I wish the Reds had 1st round compensation pick in the bottom half because there's a chance he'd hang around to grab there.

[OnBaseMachine]

In a world with at least one of Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Tim Beckham, Aaron Crow, Buster Poser, Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham available, the Reds have no reason to bother with picking Wallace.

That doesn't even touch upon pitchers like Tanner Scheppers or Shooter Hunt or higher rated 1Bs like Eric Hosmer or Yonder Alonso. Wallace would be an extreme reach. The Reds have a #7 pick and they shouldn't be selecting a #20 talent with it.

Agreed. I like Wallace but I don't like him as much as the guys you listed.

[lollipopcurve]

Wallace is the kind of guy where I wish the Reds had 1st round compensation pick in the bottom half because there's a chance he'd hang around to grab there.

I don't think so. I think he'll be gone in the top half of the 1st round.

I'm sympathetic to preferring Beckham, though, because of the position. I just can't find convincing reasons to think Smoak, Alonso and Hosmer are necessarily better hitting prospects. Genrally speaking, once you get past the top 1-5 kids in a draft, and you're assessing the next 20-25, it gets tough to decide. Signability, position, makeup, physical projection, injury risk -- all that stuff plays in.

[M2]

So.... Baseball America lists are only worth so much. They will likely publish a revised ranking of prospects before the draft, too. Ultimately, the difference between a #7 rated player and a #17 may be entirely subjective.

I buy that to an extent, but I haven't seen Wallace rated above Smoak, Hosmer or Alonso anywhere.

Meanwhile Alvarez, Matusz, Crow, Posey, Smoak and the Beckhams are becoming a consensus top 7. The Reds should get one of them. The last two first round picks were cases where the Reds had a subjective opinion that led them to pass over better regarded players on the board.

Though I suspect the Wallace link is a bit like the Kevin Ahrens chatter last year. I doubt the Reds are going to reach for this guy.

[dougdirt]

Maybe this is just me, but If I have a top 10 pick, I am not taking a first baseman with projected 25 HR power. I agree with cyclone, hes they type of guy I wish we had a sandwich pick for and hope he fell to us with it.