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Thread: What next?

  1. #1
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    What next?

    When Josh Hamilton was dealt for Volquez durimg the offseason, I figured another extension for Dunn was a foregone conclusion, but now it looks like a pipedream.

    It would be surprising if either AD or Junior were still a Red a month from now. When we've talked of trades in the past, it was natural to expect that pitching would be the emphasis, but this time it seems apparent that offense needs to be the target (and it's probably a good time to shore up the D too).

    I'd love to see them add a couple of OFs, a SS and a C who are solid defensively as well as offensively, but AD & Junior's status mean they'll be lucky to get two of those. There's Hatteburg, Freel, Ross, Fogg, two or three relievers and some decent farmhands to sweeten the pot or move in seperate deals.

    What kind of retrun do you think we can look for if both AD & KGJ are dealt?

    Also, Bronson has put together strong starts in three of his last four outings, is he reclaiming his spot as a solid number two or is it just a great time to get out from under his contract and add more young talent?

    No game tonight, so I thought I'd see if I could get a little discussion going. I love bruce, Votto and Encarnacion, but I'm really worried about where the offense is going to come from. I think they have to add at least one more solid offensive weapon if both corner OFs really go.

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  3. #2
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    Re: What next?

    Jocketty has said there have been no trade talks involving Griffey, and that he is interested in having Griffey stay the entire year. I think the Reds will let Griffey finish out the year, and buy him out at the end of the year. They may be bowled over by a really good trade offer from Seattle, but I don't see it happening yet.. I really thought after Castellini talked about having Dunn stay that the Reds would be interested in giving him a LTC and Adam has shown some indication he would like to stay in Cincinnati; now I just don't know. The Reds may simply be waiting for Adam to increase his value by playing well before they make an attempt in trading him; I have doubts they are still interested in offering him an LTC.

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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Jocketty has said there have been no trade talks involving Griffey, and that he is interested in having Griffey stay the entire year. I think the Reds will let Griffey finish out the year, and buy him out at the end of the year. They may be bowled over by a really good trade offer from Seattle, but I don't see it happening yet.. I really thought after Castellini talked about having Dunn stay that the Reds would be interested in giving him a LTC and Adam has shown some indication he would like to stay in Cincinnati; now I just don't know. The Reds may simply be waiting for Adam to increase his value by playing well before they make an attempt in trading him; I have doubts they are still interested in offering him an LTC.

    I hate to say it, but I think it's unfortunate if they do hold on to Griffey for the remainder of the season. It's painful to watch him paly defense, his offense is stagnant and if he is here at the end of the seasom, his buyout is a waste of $4M.

    I'd like to get one useable body for him, but the return is not really that important. I'd love to see Junior go some place where he can DH at least now and then and maybe earn a ring. Bruce needs to be in RF, taking his lumps if need be.

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    Re: What next?

    I agree that trading Hamilton didn't make much sense unless the Reds were planning to sign Dunn to another contract. Bruce is destined to be Griffey's replacement, so the Reds do not have a decent replacement for Dunn.

    I still think the Reds will keep Dunn for several more years. They will keep listening to offers just in case somebody bowls them over with a great deal, which could happen.

    If the Reds are serious about trading Dunn in exchange for true prospects it would make sense to sign him to a long or mid-term contract first. Dunn would have more trade value if teams knew they would have him locked up for $XX per year. Right now he is a short term rent-a-player with trade veto power and is also destined to receive a very large contract. That type of player is hard to trade, especially if you are expecting top prospects in return.

    I hope Adam Dunn remains a Red for his whole career so we can watch him break lots of records. Without Dunn and Griffey the Reds have nobody that is identifiable to casual Reds fans.

    I expect Griffey to be traded to Seattle, Detroit or the Yankees pretty soon. The Reds will have to send some money to his new team along with Griffey if they hope to receive any good prospects in return.

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: What next?

    I don't think it's a given that not having signed Dunn yet means it can't happen. I don't get the sense of there being any acrimony over no talks presently taking place. They may still move him, but I don't see this is urgently pressing.
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    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I hate to say it, but I think it's unfortunate if they do hold on to Griffey for the remainder of the season. It's painful to watch him paly defense, his offense is stagnant and if he is here at the end of the seasom, his buyout is a waste of $4M.
    It's not a waste as much as it's a contractual stipulation. There's nothing the Reds can do about it. But it's much more "palatable" then the 16.5 mil we are obligated to pay him for next season if we retained him.

    What you mention above concerning Jr's performance other teams also see. That's why no one, other then an "inquiring" Seattle, is asking about this guy.

    Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

    Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    It's not a waste as much as it's a contractual stipulation. There's nothing the Reds can do about it. But it's much more "palatable" then the 16.5 mil we are obligated to pay him for next season if we retained him.

    What you mention above concerning Jr's performance other teams also see. That's why no one, other then an "inquiring" Seattle, is asking about this guy.

    Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

    Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.

    I only meant that it was a wate if they have a chance to move him and don't take advantage of it. If no one else wants him (quite possible), then yes, it is just a contractual obligation.

  9. #8
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: What next?

    I think it makes sense to wait with Dunn. Wait until June 15th or so. That's when the Reds can really start fielding offers and seeing what he's worth. If at that point they decide that they are "bowled over" by an offer, then they can deal him. If there is no such deal, I suppose they will then wait for awhile longer. He's arguably the best bat available for mid-season pickup this year. If they are still not getting decent offers, they then need to make the decision about whether to consider a LTC or letting him walk for draft picks.

    In any case, it's not urgent. Not yet.
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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think it makes sense to wait with Dunn. Wait until June 15th or so. That's when the Reds can really start fielding offers and seeing what he's worth. If at that point they decide that they are "bowled over" by an offer, then they can deal him. If there is no such deal, I suppose they will then wait for awhile longer. He's arguably the best bat available for mid-season pickup this year. If they are still not getting decent offers, they then need to make the decision about whether to consider a LTC or letting him walk for draft picks.

    In any case, it's not urgent. Not yet.
    That makes logical sense. Deal Jr if we can then replace him with Bruce but wait a while on Dunn. When I look at Dunn I see a player whose production could drop off real fast. Shades of Mo Vaughn. What I would hate to see the Reds do is give him a very long term deal then regret it by the 2nd year.
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  11. #10
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post

    Would any of us love to be able to cut ties with this guy RIGHT NOW? Most would. But Jr is in the driver's seat. Unless the skies open up, and a miracle somehow appears, he will be here till season's end, and it's just "wishful thinking".

    Respectfully - we just need to live with those facts.
    Yep, I can't see Jr approving a trade as a rental player and going through all the hassle of moving when he doesn't have to. The only exception I could see would be if a heavily favored contender wanted him.. but I just don't see that happening..

    Dunn is a harder call. Maybe there's a team (Houston or whatever) that would deal for him and then sign him. Problem is that Dunn's cold start makes it somewhat risky to do that. I think Dunn will come around. I'd still like to see the Reds resign Dunn, but with each day I feel less likely it will happen.
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Yep, I can't see Jr approving a trade as a rental player and going through all the hassle of moving when he doesn't have to. The only exception I could see would be if a heavily favored contender wanted him.. but I just don't see that happening..

    Dunn is a harder call. Maybe there's a team (Houston or whatever) that would deal for him and then sign him. Problem is that Dunn's cold start makes it somewhat risky to do that. I think Dunn will come around. I'd still like to see the Reds resign Dunn, but with each day I feel less likely it will happen.
    I'm for keeping Dunn too, I just think the complete lack of noise on the subject from the FO makes me think it's not gonna happen though. I hope I'm just reading it wrong, but I think that we'd he Cast making more noise about trying to keep AD if it were gonna happen.

    If they do re-up him though I hope it's no more that 2 or three years with a team option and they avoid the no-trade clauses that always put them in a bind.

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    Re: What next?

    I hate to see JR turn from hero to goat.....it is a sad thing, but he is the new Barry Larkin. It is also sad when a great athlete cannot see or admit to himself that he can no longer play the game and is hurting his team. But JR is a rather large determent now.

    He cannot play RF anymore and he cannot hit anymore......and he hasn't been able to run or throw for years. So what tool is left. Guile is great when you are a pitcher, but I don't think it helps position players much.

    JR doesn't need to be gone if that is what he and Jocketty want, but he sure as heck cannot play the game anymore. If he wants to PH when the Reds are down 8 runs, fine, but he should never again be put in a position to win or lose a game.

    The best TEAM that we are supposed to see for our money has Jay Bruce in RF and JR at the far end of the bench. Let JR mentor Bruce or something, but I am soooo sick of the "race to 600 commercials" I can't stand it. Stats are supposed to be a result of the game, not the purpose for it.
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    Re: What next?

    What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year? I don't know.

    So speaking hypothetically that this is Jocketty's position, then "What's next?". What is going to be his approach to address this situation going into the '09 season other then a Jay Bruce?

    From what I've read on Walt, this is his forte - being able to go into the market, sign a top flight FA to fill a dire need (like a Rolen, etc).

    Trading for it is not an impossibility; but when I look at what trading chips we have, they are primarily in an area (pitching) that we can't afford to divest ourselves of. IMO, we're creating a hole(s) to try and fill a hole.

    So maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like a FA signing is the best approach. Especially with the possibility of large amounts of payroll being freed up after this season.

    And I'm still not sold on Bruce in CF. I still say he is best suited for RF.

    But if that is their approach, then shouldn't they have this kid up here this year to get somewhat acclimated, rather then just ceding the job to him going into next season?

    And is it out of the realm of possibility - especially with Baker's love for the guy - that they retain Patterson in CF for '09 if no other sound alternatives within the market present themselves if they are letting Jr and Dunn walk?

    Frightening isn't it?

    The guy is a plus defensive fielder that is for sure. But his bat is simply atrocious. He's at best, IMHO, a role player off the bench.

    And if Castellini/Jocketty are really serious about taking this team to the next level - while letting a guy like Dunn walk (Jr we all agree should be gone) - then they better come forth with better alternatives then depending on role players like Freel, Hopper, Hairston, and Patterson to get it done consistently for you.
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    Re: What next?

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year?
    The reds completely turned over their outfield after the 1981 season. In 1981 the Reds primary outfielders were George Foster, Ken Griffey and Dave Collins. In 1982 the Reds had an outfield of Cesar Cedeno, Eddie Milner and Paul Householder. The Reds alos went from having the best record in MLB in 1981 to a 101 loss season in 1982.
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    Re: What next?

    What is interesting is that there is a high probability that none of the starting OF (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey) in yesterday's game will be here going into next season. And isn't that kind of a rare occurrence to not have any of your current starting OF with a team the next year? I don't know.
    I believe that Baker will request that Patterson be back with next years team, unless Jocketty over rules him and has a better alternative. Of course I am all for letting Patterson and a group of many walk, around June 1st, I think that we have seen why the guy was unemployed at the start of this season. Baker will want a centerfielder who can lead off.

    But if that is their approach, then shouldn't they have this kid up here this year to get somewhat acclimated, rather then just ceding the job to him going into next season?
    Unless you want a very young rookie trying to break in at the major league level next spring, which was Bruce’s situation this past spring, it would be better if Bruce received significant playing time, especially if you feel that Griffey, Dunn, and Patterson might not be back next year. I certainly wouldn’t want Baker to be uncomfortable with him because he is young and hasn’t played above AAA. A team could end up with choices at the level of a Hairston, Bako or Patterson.

    If this team is not going to win the division or gain a wild card (past seasons team stats seem to indicate that they won’t) it would benefit them to get Bruce major league experience in preparation for next year. Otherwise I think that Jocketty will use Bruce for a trading chip because other than some pitching prospects Jocketty doesn’t have much to work with. Surely he wouldn’t trade a Harang, Volquez, Cordero, Cueto or Phillips so what else does he have that another major league team would be strongly motivated to acquire?


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