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Thread: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

  1. #1
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    Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    After a hot start...pitiful month of May and his hitting is looking very 2007ish.

    DAYTON (2007) .270 .364 .421 .785
    SARASOTA (2008) .270 .347 .439 .786

    April .337 .418 .526 .944
    May .151 .211 .283 .494

    Looking like a platoon from right side/late inning defensive replacement is more and more what we can hope Stubbs will turn out to be for Reds someday.
    Last edited by UK Reds Fan; 05-16-2008 at 09:00 AM.

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    After a hot start...pitiful month of May and his hitting is looking very 2007ish.

    DAYTON (2007) .270 .364 .421 .785
    SARASOTA (2008) .270 .347 .439 .786

    April .337 .418 .526 .944
    May .151 .211 .283 .494

    Looking like a platoon from right side/late inning defensive replacement is more and more what we can hope Stubbs will turn out to be for Reds someday.
    Never base a players prospect status on his cold spell, or on his hot spell for that matter.

    You need to look at the cummulative stats over a longer period.

    In 2008, Stubbs has hit very well in a pitchers league.

    He's likley ranked higher as a propsect today than he ever has been.

  4. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Not quite.

    May - Line Drive rate - 23% - BABIP .206. Those two numbers don't mesh with eachother at all. a 23% line drive rate would suggest a BABIP of .350. His strikeouts are up a little bit this month, but his 'decline' has a lot more to do with bad luck than it does anything else this month.

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    well, we'll see -- I've been supporting Stubbs since he was drafted, and felt that the first month was evidence that he really did find something in the latter part of 07, but I'm a bit concerned by this downturn -- hope you're right that he's been hitting the ball hard, doug
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    A little too early to say I think. I'd like to see where he's at after 300 ABs.

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    46Ks in about 150ABs is not a good sign for a hitter like Stubbs, who, even though he has power, is not a true power hitter -- he still has quite a bit of work to do
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    well, we'll see -- I've been supporting Stubbs since he was drafted, and felt that the first month was evidence that he really did find something in the latter part of 07, but I'm a bit concerned by this downturn -- hope you're right that he's been hitting the ball hard, doug
    As long as he keeps hitting line drives at the rate he currently is, he will be perfectly fine. His line drive rate in Sarasota is higher than that of Jay Bruce (by 7%) last year, higher than Chris Valaika this year (by 2%).... he will be fine, its just an unlucky streak.

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    I hope his stats continue to improve so we can package him in a trade deal.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

    I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

    I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?
    Depends who you ask. The same line in the FSL as in the MWL is a big improvement though.

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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    Was Stubbs entire year at Dayton last year viewed as a dissapointment, average or above average?

    I understand Stubbs is playing at a slightly higher level in Sarasota, but if 2007 was sort of given a mediocre grade by many and he is doing about the same identical stats thus far this year in a slightly higher league...wouldn't that conclude that this year is on pace thus far (25% thru the season) as another mediocre season?
    I think Stubb's season last year was viewed as a dissapointment that was salvaged by the last couple of months. The expectation was that with a full off season to heal, he would break out and be the player they wanted when they drafted him.

    For his age and his draft slot, he should not be surviving these levels of the minors, he should be exploding through them. It's time to let that go and evaluate the guy on his own terms.

    He's got the instincts, range and the arm to play major league centerfield well. I don't remember the last time the reds had a player I could confidently say that about.

    He's not a disaster at the plate.

    Those are the pluses.

    The problem is that he's a 23 year old and only in high A ball. If he stays healthy and holds his own, he could be on the major league roster starting in 2010 as a 25 year old. While that's not superstar material, it's a year earlier than Chris Dickerson or precisely when Denorfia was ready. You hope for more out of that draft slot than it looks like we got.

    It's also interesting to note, now that Stubbs seems to have finally put something together on the field, the GM who drafted him is now out of the organization and The GM in power and the manager in power are not fond of playing young guys. I don't think that bodes well for Stubbs.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  13. #12
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    There were questions about his bat when he drafted, they were there after rookie ball, they were there after low A ball, they are still there in High A ball ... they will likely be there until he makes it to the majors and proves it isn't an issue.

    We'll all just have to wait and see how it turns out.
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  14. #13
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    He's likley ranked higher as a propsect today than he ever has been.
    He is easily ranked lower than when he was drafted.

  15. #14
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Stubbs needs to become at .850+ OPS guy if he wants to garner any serious prospect consideration. A .785 OPS player in A ball is more likely than not a sub-.700 OPS player if he ever reaches the bigs (which isn't terribly likely for an OF with those numbers).

    Hopefully Stubbs does more of what we saw in April. One question I've got about him is what kind of hitter is he really? 222 games into his pro career and he's hit 19 HR. Given that he's 23, I'm starting to think the longball simply isn't going to be a featured part of his game. And if it's not, can he do enough on the OB/speed/gap power front to be productive with 10-15 HR power?
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    Re: Is Stubbs starting to fall back to failure?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He is easily ranked lower than when he was drafted.
    Stubbs cracked the Top 100 BA guys last year for the first time, at 100.

    He'd be better than that now.


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