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Thread: Can you name these two pitchers?

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Can you name these two pitchers?

    Pitcher A:

    51.2 IP, 49 H, 12 HR, 13 BB/53 K, 1.20 WHIP, 5.75 ERA

    Pitcher B:

    60 IP, 52 H, 11 HR, 15 BB/57 K, 1.12 WHIP, 3.30 ERA

    Can anyone guess who those two pitchers are and then I'll tell you what the point of my post is.

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  3. #2
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Pitcher A is Johnny Cueto. Pitcher B is Johan Santana.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Cueto and Beckett?

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    One pitcher has the ability to strand baserunners, while the other one comes apart at the seams by pitch 80 and can never make it through the 6th inning (but likely will be able to by next season).

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    A is Johnny Cueto.
    B is ???
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Pitcher A is Johnny Cueto. Pitcher B is Johan Santana.
    Nice.

    If you look at those numbers, the peripherals are similar. You wouldn't expect two pitchers with similar peripherals like that to have a near 2.5 run differential in ERA. It all comes down to the defense IMO. The Mets are 9th in baseball in defense efficiency while the Reds are last. Obviously Cueto has given up his share of homeruns with 12, but nine of those have been solo. Santana has given up one less homerun in 8.1 more innings, but he pitches half his games in a pitchers park while Cueto pitches in a homerun friendly park. But it all comes down to defense. If the Reds had a better defender at SS and RF then I suspect Cueto's ERA would be closer to 3.30 than 5.75 right now.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Nice.

    If you look at those numbers, the peripherals are similar. You wouldn't expect two pitchers with similar peripherals like that to have a near 2.5 run differential in ERA. It all comes down to the defense IMO. The Mets are 9th in baseball in defense efficiency while the Reds are last. Obviously Cueto has given up his share of homeruns with 12, but nine of those have been solo. Sanatana has given up one less homerun in 8.1 more innings, but he pitches half his games in a pitchers park while Cueto pitches in a homerun friendly park. But it all comes down to defense. If the Reds had a better defender at SS and RF then I suspect Cueto's ERA would be closer to 3.30 than 5.75 right now.

    Santana has an OPSA of .715, while Cueto's is .803. I realize that OPSA is a defense-dependent stat, but I'm not at all convinced that defense alone makes up that gulf in their OPSA. I suspect bullpens come into play in stranding starters' runners, too, though.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Santana has an OPSA of .715, while Cueto's is .803. I realize that OPSA is a defense-dependent stat, but I'm not at all convinced that defense alone makes up that gulf in their OPSA. I suspect bullpens come into play in stranding starters' runners, too, though.
    Ballpark too.

  10. #9
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Great stuff, OBM.

    Very interesting.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Ballpark too.
    Could be. Though Cueto (so far) has shown himself to be more of a flyball pitcher than Santana. So while more of Cueto's flyballs are likely to leave in GAB versus Shea, he still puts himself in worse shape in terms of likelihood of hurting himself with the homer.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Could be. Though Cueto (so far) has shown himself to be more of a flyball pitcher than Santana. So while more of Cueto's flyballs are likely to leave in GAB versus Shea, he still puts himself in worse shape in terms of likelihood of hurting himself with the homer.
    But not by much. Over his career Santana has a 0.89 G/F ratio whereas Cueto is at 0.80 in a small sample size.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Another area which might matter is bullpen quality. When the starting pitcher leaves the game with men on base, how often are those runners coming around to score? That can have a significant affect on the SP's ERA.

    That said, let's not ignore the innings pitched difference here. Those rate stats vary a bit, particularly for HR.

    Code:
    	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	LOB%	FIP
    Cueto	8.53	2.26	9.23	2.10	61.4	4.85
    Santana	7.80	2.25	8.55	1.65	85.6	4.28
    Notice that Santana has a FIP over half a run lower than Cueto. To me, the real story is in those strand rates. Of the 41 pitchers with 50 or more IP, Santana is 2nd, Cueto is 40th. FWIW, Volquez is #1 and Arroyo #39. Not allowing HR is a very powerful thing.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-20-2008 at 03:48 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    But not by much. Over his career Santana has a 0.89 G/F ratio whereas Cueto is at 0.80 in a small sample size.
    True. Though I think we're both dealing with the problem that faces this kind of comparison: comparing 9 starts between a Cy Young winner in the prime of his career and a 22 year old rookie.

    Over the course of the summer Santana will distance himself well away from Cueto in both rate and counting stats. Because one has a skill set and physical and mental ability to do something the other doesn't yet. And the comparison will become less and less meaningful.

  15. #14
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    the Reds need to get serious above improving their defense. i feel sorry for Reds pitchers. the defensive lineup for last nights game was a joke.
    .

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    Re: Can you name these two pitchers?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    True. Though I think we're both dealing with the problem that faces this kind of comparison: comparing 9 starts between a Cy Young winner and a 22 year old rookie.

    Over the course of the summer Santana will distance himself well away from Cueto in both rate and counting stats. Because one has a skill set and physical and mental ability to do something the other doesn't yet. And the comparison will become less and less meaningful.
    Oh I definitely think Santana will have better stats than Cueto at the end of the season...I just thought it was interesting how similar their peripherals were and yet Cueto's ERA is 2.5 runs worse. Cueto definitely has some things he needs to work on like all young pitchers do, specifically keeping the ball down more but he seems like a determined kid who will make the adjustments needed.


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