Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 36

Thread: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

  1. #1
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Sorry, this is a lame thread title, but I wasn't really sure how to articulate my point--- that was the best I could do

    We talk a lot around here about "stats vs. tradition" etc.

    While I still believe that managing a team is at least 50% intuition, people skills, timing....I have also become a staunch believer in maximizing percentages.

    We talk all the time about how GM's and managers balance this out, but we rarely talk about the players.

    Last night, something dawned in me in the 9th inning: Maybe the Reds players really aren't very smart. Maybe they don't understand the numbers. Or maybe I just don't understand the game?

    Here's how I got started on this:

    Top of the 9th inning last night, Reds down 5-2. Obviously, the percentages are completely stacked against us in that situation no matter how players approach their AB's. However, isn't the idea to at least give yourself the best CHANCE to mount a comeback?

    Griffey leads off and takes ball one. He then pops weakly to third on an 1-0 count.

    To me, that is maddening. It's really just plain stupid.

    In that situation, reaching 1st base by any means necessary is the equivalent to hitting a HR. The only advantage to an extra base hit is staying out of a potential DP. So, IMO, the ONLY objective for Junior in that at bat is to reach 1st base.

    We all know that even the best hitters connect for a base hit well below 40% of the time.

    With a 1-0 count, why in the world do you not take in that situation? Even if it's a meatball down the heart of the plate, it would seem you would maximize your chances by forcing him to throw another pitch. Maybe on the 1-1 pitch, he misses the plate again...the deeper the count goes, the better.

    Of course, if this same situation took place in the middle of the game, I would be signing a different tune. Totally different situation with a different objective for the AB.

    And that's what baffles me about the Reds...the objective never seems to change.

    After Griffey pops out, Phillips swings at the first pitch he sees. Eventually, he does manage to run the count full, but winds up striking out. I really don't have a problem with BP being a "hacker"-- it's who he is after all. But is it so hard to adjust your approach for a given situation?

    Dunn comes up next. Again, swings at the 1st pitch. Winds up striking out. Now, Adam Dunn should NEVER be criticized for not be patient enough. I'm not saying that. But again, in that situation, I'm not sure he "knew" himself very well. The % of times Adam Dunn gets an actual base hit are pretty low. In that situation, you might as well take, take, take. In that situation, I'd actually rather see him go down looking than swinging. If the bases were loaded, I'd rather seem him go down swinging.

    And that's what it boils down to for me. I'm talking about the Reds because they are the only team I watch this intensely throughout the season. Perhaps this a trend I really haven't noticed. But I'm using these examples because I watch the Reds.

    Are they not smart enough? Too stubborn? Too embedded with old school-macho values about "going down swinging?" Too selfish? Or is it just the way it is and I'm the one that needs to change?
    Last edited by Edskin; 05-22-2008 at 04:10 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,402

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Are they not smart enough? Too stubborn? Too embedded with old school-macho values about "going down swinging?" Too selfish? Or is it just the way it is and I'm the one that needs to change?

    Maybe they just felt those were pitches they could hit. Were those strikes they swung at or balls out of the zone?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  4. #3
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Maybe they just felt those were pitches they could hit. Were those strikes they swung at or balls out of the zone?
    Doesn't matter-- especially in Griffey's case. Even if it's a "pitch he can hit" there's not a great chance of actually getting a hit. 1-0 count, leading off, down by 3, it would seem to me that forcing more pitches is the best way to increase your chances of getting on base.

    And the fact that he popped out so weakly leads me to believe that it wasn't such a great pitch to hit either.

  5. #4
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Also, all three were taking their customary big swings. 95% of the time, I have no issue with that-- it's maximazing their overall strength to the team. However, why not choke up in that situation? Why swing from the heels? Why not approach the AB under more control?

  6. #5
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Columbia, MO
    Posts
    1,908

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Also, all three were taking their customary big swings. 95% of the time, I have no issue with that-- it's maximazing their overall strength to the team. However, why not choke up in that situation? Why swing from the heels? Why not approach the AB under more control?
    Because that's not how they've been successful throughout their careers.

  7. #6
    Ya can't teach speed... Triples's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Indpls
    Posts
    341

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Sorry, this is a lame thread title, but I wasn't really sure how to articulate my point--- that was the best I could do

    We talk a lot around here about "stats vs. tradition" etc.

    While I still believe that managing a team is at least 50% intuition, people skills, timing....I have also become a staunch believer in maximizing percentages.

    We talk all the time about how GM's and managers balance this out, but we rarely talk about the players.

    Last night, something dawned in me in the 9th inning: Maybe the Reds players really aren't very smart. Maybe they don't understand the numbers. Or maybe I just don't understand the game?

    Here's how I got started on this:

    Top of the 9th inning last night, Reds down 5-2. Obviously, the percentages are completely stacked against us in that situation no matter how players approach their AB's. However, isn't the idea to at least give yourself the best CHANCE to mount a comeback?

    Griffey leads off and takes ball one. He then pops weakly to third on an 1-0 count.

    To me, that is maddening. It's really just plain stupid.

    In that situation, reaching 1st base by any means necessary is the equivalent to hitting a HR. The only advantage to an extra base hit is staying out of a potential DP. So, IMO, the ONLY objective for Junior in that at bat is to reach 1st base.

    We all know that even the best hitters connect for a base hit well below 40% of the time.

    With a 1-0 count, why in the world do you not take in that situation? Even if it's a meatball down the heart of the plate, it would seem you would maximize your chances by forcing him to throw another pitch. Maybe on the 1-1 pitch, he misses the plate again...the deeper the count goes, the better.

    Of course, if this same situation took place in the middle of the game, I would be signing a different tune. Totally different situation with a different objective for the AB.

    And that's what baffles me about the Reds...the objective never seems to change.

    After Griffey pops out, Phillips swings at the first pitch he sees. Eventually, he does manage to run the count full, but winds up striking out. I really don't have a problem with BP being a "hacker"-- it's who he is after all. But is it so hard to adjust your approach for a given situation?

    Dunn comes up next. Again, swings at the 1st pitch. Winds up striking out. Now, Adam Dunn should NEVER be criticized for not be patient enough. I'm not saying that. But again, in that situation, I'm not sure he "knew" himself very well. The % of times Adam Dunn gets an actual base hit are pretty low. In that situation, you might as well take, take, take. In that situation, I'd actually rather see him go down looking than swinging. If the bases were loaded, I'd rather seem him go down swinging.

    And that's what it boils down to for me. I'm talking about the Reds because they are the only team I watch this intensely throughout the season. Perhaps this a trend I really haven't noticed. But I'm using these examples because I watch the Reds.

    Are they not smart enough? Too stubborn? Too embedded with old school-macho values about "going down swinging?" Too selfish? Or is it just the way it is and I'm the one that needs to change?
    Perhaps, just perhaps, those guys know something you and me and everyone else not on the field don't know. First, KGJ, BP and AD didn't get to be major league players by being stupid (the word you used to describe KGs at bat) Second, isn't it plausible that who ever the pitcher was has a reputation for throwing a first pitch strike to get ahead and then nit picking the rest of the at bat. Last time I checked teams keep track of stuff like that. If so, then all three knew that the best pitch they are going to see is likely going to be the first one, after that all they are going to see is junk. Likewise, how often does the pitcher in question walk players. While a walk is good in that situation its not as good as an extra base hit and all of those guys you're talking about are guys that can change the tenor of the game with one swing of the bat. So, I'm not sure we should be so quick to doubt their intelligence, understanding of the game or their motivation. I'm confident they have a lot more information at their disposal than we do.
    Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal. ~George Will


  8. #7
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Triples View Post
    While a walk is good in that situation its not as good as an extra base hit and all of those guys you're talking about are guys that can change the tenor of the game with one swing of the bat.
    Not really. A walk is pretty much the same as a HR in that situation. The objective of the AB should NOT be to drive the ball-- it should be to reach 1st base, period. Now, maybe a certain player doesn't possess skills aside from driving the ball, so perhaps that IS their best chance to reach base. But I find that hard to believe.

  9. #8
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,402

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Doesn't matter-- especially in Griffey's case. Even if it's a "pitch he can hit" there's not a great chance of actually getting a hit. 1-0 count, leading off, down by 3, it would seem to me that forcing more pitches is the best way to increase your chances of getting on base.

    And the fact that he popped out so weakly leads me to believe that it wasn't such a great pitch to hit either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Also, all three were taking their customary big swings. 95% of the time, I have no issue with that-- it's maximazing their overall strength to the team. However, why not choke up in that situation? Why swing from the heels? Why not approach the AB under more control?

    Theoretically speaking, you're right. I get frustrated too when guys pop it up on the 1st pitch. But, as Triples said, these guys are proven hitters and there are a lot of variables to take into effect. Now if each of them had swung at that 1st or 2nd pitch and hit HRs or got base hits, no one would be complaining about their lack of selectivity. Plate patience is a good thing but it has to be taken into context.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  10. #9
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,171

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Edskin I agree completly with you. I dont know if it is bad coaching or players not buing into a team game but it seems as if each player is out there for himself. In a situation like last night when you are down by 3 with 3 outs left you need baserunners. Without baserunners you can't score 3 with one swing. I find it madening seing very very poor swings early in the count. I can't stand it when a reds batter greats a relief pitcher with a first pitch swinging out. Or when a pitcher has just walked a batter or two and the next batter waives at a pitch out of the strike zone.

    Maybe its just me but the reds have been plagued by poor situational baseball for years. They just don't seem to understand what the situation calls for. This is the 4th manager since McKeon left and the reds have played the same sorry game of baseball year in year out. I read a quote that Marty said on the radio that was to the fact that the reds looked like they were going through the motions. The reds can go for multiple inning stretches in which they don't have a single good at bat. They can go through a stretch of innings in which not one batter works the count.

    Why is it so hard to light a fire under this team. I know a manager getting kicked out of a game or a player getting tossed doesn't mean much in the long run but atleast it shows that they care.

  11. #10
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    can't catch up if all you're going to do is clog the bases.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #11
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Theoretically speaking, you're right. I get frustrated too when guys pop it up on the 1st pitch. But, as Triples said, these guys are proven hitters and there are a lot of variables to take into effect. Now if each of them had swung at that 1st or 2nd pitch and hit HRs or got base hits, no one would be complaining about their lack of selectivity. Plate patience is a good thing but it has to be taken into context.
    I've always thought that if I had the skill to make in MLB I'd ask myself a simple question before each AB:

    --What is my goal in this AB? How can I best increase my odds of helping my team in THIS AB?

    I would agree that the majority of the time, the answer to that question for the above mentioned players is to try and find a decent pitch and drive hard and far. But sometimes, that isn't the answer.

    My question is an honest one: Is it too difficult to change your approach?

  13. #12
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    And I'll take it one step further...the situation could have changed (along with my opinion) in a matter of minutes.

    Let's say Junior and BP reach base. Then, I'd WANT Dunn to swing and be less selective. I'd actually be very upset he took too many pitches. Because at that point, the situation would have changed. Now, it would seem that with two runners on, Adam Dunn could best maximize his % by hitting one deep.

    I agree that it might be too mentally taxing for players to think like this throughout every AB in every game all season long. But hey, that's why they make the big bucks, right?

  14. #13
    Member 15fan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    5,504

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by Edskin View Post
    Not really. A walk is pretty much the same as a HR in that situation.
    No.

    Walk = Still down 3

    HR = Only down 2.

    2 and 3 are not equal. Ergo, a walk does not equal a HR.

    Nor will it ever.

  15. #14
    Worth The Wait
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Oklahoma City
    Posts
    4,327

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    Quote Originally Posted by 15fan View Post
    No.

    Walk = Still down 3

    HR = Only down 2.

    2 and 3 are not equal. Ergo, a walk does not equal a HR.

    Nor will it ever.
    C'mon, you know what I mean. If it's the 8th inning, then I'd agree. But when you get to the 9th, there is little, if any benefit to hitting a HR as oppossed to drawing a walk....until the tying run comes to the plate of course.

    Let's say Junior and BP both hit HR's last night.

    Adam Dunn comes to the plate with no one on, down by 1.

    As oppossed to...

    Two men on, down by 3.

    Either way, Dunn represents the run that matters. So, essentially, what the guys in front of him do ONLY matters in terms of reaching base or not reaching base (other than the double play benefit I mentioned originally).
    Last edited by Edskin; 05-22-2008 at 04:52 PM.

  16. #15
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Do Reds Players Understand THEMSELVES??

    BTW, all of the play-by-play for the game has Dunn grouding out to 3rd on a 2-1 pitch.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25