I just hope he doesn't turn into another highly hyped prospect named Brandon Claussen.
I just hope he doesn't turn into another highly hyped prospect named Brandon Claussen.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
I've been impressed with his control also. I'm just hoping his last two or three starts isn't an indicator of his future starts.Originally Posted by dougdirt
Me too.... although Claussen was never close to as highly touted as Bailey and also had a major surgery before coming to the Reds.
Sorry Doug, your wrong. When Bailey throws harder, his command is better.
This is a fact. The "Bailey doesn't know where the ball is going when he throws harder bs, is just that bs. It is the opposite. When he throws with less velocity, his walks go up and he starts giving up "Homer's" in droves
Earlier in the year Bailey was working 93-95 and wasn't getting smacked around nearly as much and his control was much better.
That leaves the simple truth: Homer Bailey is velocity dependent. If he is throwing 91-94mph he isn't very good. If he is throwing 93-95, he is good. When he is throwing 94-98 like in AA 2 years ago, he is great.
Homer Bailey has had time and time again had these periods when he looks like dung. He did in 2005 and 2006.
This year he is in one of his moods again. He started out ok, now doesn't seem to care. He is the Syd Barret of Reds pitchers: It is all in his head.
The Reds need to find a way to press the buttons, but right now they aren't. Far different from the Edison Volquez saga. He always put up good power numbers in AAA. The Rangers were just stupid.
I don't know of course, this is only my own speculation, but last season Homer went home to Texas and then was sent to Sarasota to work on things. We'll never know the real story, but that seems like time in the penalty box to me. Now there is lots of stuff out there about Bailey's attitude and maturity. I wonder how much of his struggles relate to this.
I said before the year that Bailey needed to stay in AAA all year and it was mostly about progression of his innings to a starters workload, but it also was to give him time to grow up. I really think his stuff and command are secondary at this point. If those other things were ready, he could be a major league calibler starter with the stuff and command that he currently has. He may not be ready to be what will ultimately become, but he'd be one of the best 5 on this and many other teams. He just isn't ready for the rigors with risking injury and his head needs to be in order to protect against him becoming a "10 cent head" type (Kyle Lohse??).
I don't worry so much about his attitude right now. He's a 22 year old kid. Most 22 year olds think they know everything. He'll grow up. I do hope he's much improved in this area by season's end. I think his time shouldn't begin until 2009 anyway.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Aronchis,
Bailey was absolutely hitting his spots earlier in the season working 91-94 MPH. I am talking painting the black with the catcher not moving his glove. Not sure where you are getting your information, but my eyes are telling me differently.
Different Krusty, pal.
If you think small, you'll go nowhere in life.
Bust of a Red
Bailey was throwing harder than that. He was at 93-94 consistantly. Some games more 94-95 with touches up to 96-97.
He misses his spots because he is scared to throw 91-92mph junk over the zone. Wouldn't you?
Give better efforts with your velocity and nibbling won't be a problem.
Moronic to think Bailey is a bust at the age of 22. I said 22.
If he was in college right now, he'd be touted as one of the top picks of the draft. Baseball novices tend to forget there is a big difference between players who went to college and players who were drafted right out of high school. Just because a player has been in the minor leagues three years doesn't mean it's time to boom or bust.
Idiotic.
Bailey is, thankfully, not a bust. He might be someone who can grab a MLB rotation or pen slot at this point. Mabe his best usage is as a Closer considering his stuff and makeup. That being said, there's a guy named Jered Weaver who was available at that draft slot who's put up the following DIPS rates:
2006: 3.88
2007: 3.92
2008: 3.90
And that's over 350+ Innings Pitched to this point. At this point, Bailey isn't a bust, but shouldn't we actually wonder about how good the Reds would be at this point should the Reds actually drafted properly over the last few years?
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
As has been pointed out, it's waay too early to call Homer a bust. I'm not even sure he's in a bad stretch just because his results aren't what WE'D like to see. He is in training after all...he could be working on a specific pitch to the detriment of his overall game. In the larger scheme of his career, the outcome of each of his minor league outings don't even count. What matters is whether he's learning anything from these outings. I (and most of us here) have no idea whether that's true or not. Let the kid grow...I'm just glad he's able to grow in AAA and not on the big club as in years past.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that once was good, and what could be again." -- Terence Mann
It's thoughts like this that make me cry myself to sleep some nights. Had we not wasted multiple 1st Round Draft picks over the last few years, we certainly wouldn't be the Reds anymore. We'd be better than the Reds. We might actually be the Rays.
Every single organization has failed to develop guys with an arm like Bailey's.
Some men with great arms just do not develop into PITCHERS. I've watched Homer pitch, as recently as ST; he is definitely a THROWER, at least at this point.
Homer is well documented for having a hard head, and being difficult to coach..
Maybe some of the blame needs to be placed on Homer?
PS- BTW, I think he might make a very excellent closer.
Last edited by Always Red; 05-25-2008 at 10:52 PM.
sorry we're boring
That last point is spot on.
He was DanO's first draft pick, at a time when they needed as close to a can't miss as possible. We all know that there is no such thing as "can't miss", but you're definitely increasing your chances of "missing" when you draft a guy like Bailey.
If Bailey ever materializes as anything more than a "what could have been" or "whatever happened to...?", it will have been against some pretty steep odds.
I really like the kid. He's got an edge to him, and I'm rooting for him. Whatever happens, it's not really on him. It's on the DanO regime for trying to draw blood from a stone.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
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