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Thread: Dunn's value increasing?

  1. #1
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    Dunn's value increasing?

    Just heard an interesting discussion on the Mike and Mike podcast. The talk was about how 2b, 3b and HRs are all down the last two years, likely due to drug testing.

    So, if that is true, and Dunn the last couple weeks has proven he just have a slow start rather than a decline, does that mean that Dunn's value to the team and price tag is actually going UP as others decline and the power he provides is relatively more scarce?

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    If Dunn stays hot and the homers pile up (which I have no doubt they will), then yes Dunn's value climbs. Thing is he is just as valuable to the Reds as another team. Much, much more valuable than what we'd get in return. Think of this offense without Dunn.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    The only way I trade Dunn at this point is if someone knocks Jocketty over a with huge offer. I'm talking something along the lines of an "A" prospect and two "B or B+" prospects. If no one wows you with an offer than sign him to a LTC, hopefully somewhere around three years at $15 million a year with maybe an option for a fourth year. This offense is already terrible, now try to imagine how awful it would be without Adam Dunn in it. Scary thought isn't it?

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    I don't think 25-30 at bats really changes anything relating to Dunn's value.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I don't think 25-30 at bats really changes anything relating to Dunn's value.
    In a free agent walk year, I'd disagree and say it goes a long way. It shows he is not headed for an Andruw Jones-like downturn.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Dunn is 14th in OPS in the NL right now. Perhaps most surprising however is his strikeout numbers. Dunn in tied for 22nd with just 38. Those who have more include Ryan Howard, Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Pat Burrell. He's 3rd in walks.

    I don't really care about his SO numbers if the production is there, but I think it could be useful in altering his perception in the trade market.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    If I could replace Dunn's salary slot with a nearly comparable RH bat (Matt Holliday is a good example), then you'd have to consider it. However, I don't see a lot of those bats becoming available.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    In a free agent walk year, I'd disagree and say it goes a long way. It shows he is not headed for an Andruw Jones-like downturn.
    He'll be signed based upon his history and to the extent that his '08 production colors decisions it will be based upon his whole season.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #9
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    He'll be signed based upon his history and to the extent that his '08 production colors decisions it will be based upon his whole season.
    All I know is I'm sure Andruw Jones will cause teams to second guess deals in free agency...thats for sure. Dunn certainly has helped his and the Reds situation involving him over the past week. I'm no idiot...obviously teams look at a players track record (usually the past 3 seasons specifically)...but Dunn's tear certainly will help him and the Reds. Like I said, I'm sure A. Jones will cause a few gun-shy GMS at somepoint in the next year.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    This is going to be really interesting to see what happens with Dunn. It's either going to be a controversial blockbuster trade (after June 15 obviously) or the Reds are going to re-sign him to what will surely be a controversial long-term contract. I have decided I really don't care how this plays out as long as Dunn is either signed or we get a stud young starting pitcher for him.

    I am really curious as to his market value. That darn limited no-trade clause hurts the Reds a little bit of course. However, Dunn would almost assuredly accept any trade. The last thing he would want the Reds to do right before he was about to become a free agent would be sit him for all of August and September. Not that it would ever come to that, but could you imagine if Dunn vetoed a trade the Reds really wanted, then refused to sign a LTC and the Reds were stuck with him and they were out of the race? The Reds could tell Dunn, "OK, your numbers won't look quite as good as they should when you hit the market. We'll just sit you down if you don't accept this trade. Plus this team is a contender or they wouldn't be trading for you."

    Again, it would never come to that. I'm sure Dunn would accept just about any trade. But the limited no-trade clause is not just something we can ignore. I wish Dunn didn't have any no-trade stipulations in his contract.

  12. #11
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    I think it's kinda silly to even think this club will be suddenly improved by trading Adam Dunn.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I think it's kinda silly to even think this club will be suddenly improved by trading Adam Dunn.
    I don't think anyone said that. I think it's just a matter of being realistic. If Dunn wants too much money (i.e. more than Jocketty and Castellini think he's worth) and they can get a good young pitcher or two for him, Dunn is going to be traded. If Jocketty and Castellini like the idea of signing Dunn to a long-term contract and Dunn isn't looking to completely break the bank, something can be done.

    There is no question this team won't be immediately better in 2009 if they trade Adam Dunn. In a perfect world they could re-sign him and fill out their pitching holes in free agency. However, I fear Dunn is going to want too much jack and the Reds' front office has already made up their mind what they think of his true value. I don't see the Reds and Team Dunn seeing eye-to-eye on Dunn's value. I certainly hope I'm wrong though.

  14. #13
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    In today's market Dunn is worth approximately $15 million per year. Good deal for the big market teams. Pretty bad deal for the small market teams. The Reds just can't afford to give a luxury like Dunn 20% of the payroll. There's only a handful players in all of baseball that are worth 20% of a payroll, and unfortunately, Dunn is not one of them.

    I'm not sure what's going to happen with him. I'm really curious to find out. I'm still expecting him to be traded sometime in late June for 3 decent minor leaguers.
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by buckeyenut View Post
    Just heard an interesting discussion on the Mike and Mike podcast. The talk was about how 2b, 3b and HRs are all down the last two years, likely due to drug testing.

    So, if that is true, and Dunn the last couple weeks has proven he just have a slow start rather than a decline, does that mean that Dunn's value to the team and price tag is actually going UP as others decline and the power he provides is relatively more scarce?
    I think the original idea of this thread (before it got hijacked with the usual "should we sign him or trade him" mumbo jumbo) was an interesting point.

    I think Dunn's value does rise given the recent reduction in homers around the league. With many players there is a question of whether or not their production will fall now that the league's PED testing program has toughened. There is no such question with Adam Dunn. His name has never been linked with steroids or HGH. He doesn't have the muscle-freak body associated with PED users either. GMs around the league can rest assured that Adam Dunn's production will stay consistent and won't drop off due to steroid withdrawal.

    Power is harder to find now than it has been for the last decade. We all know power is what wins games. So I think Dunn's value does increase as a result.

  16. #15
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn's value increasing?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redhook View Post
    In today's market Dunn is worth approximately $15 million per year. Good deal for the big market teams. Pretty bad deal for the small market teams. The Reds just can't afford to give a luxury like Dunn 20% of the payroll. There's only a handful players in all of baseball that are worth 20% of a payroll, and unfortunately, Dunn is not one of them.
    Dunn isn't a "luxury". He's an offensive driver. Despite dumb managers using him poorly, we should have figured that out by now. By either trading or buying out Griffey's final season, not only can the Reds afford him, but they certainly should.

    And if one is going to use an argument about a high percentage of payroll going to one player, we should remember that the Reds' Closer is receiving an average of nearly 12M per season over the next four years. I honestly have little issue with overpaying for something proven the Reds need that they couldn't necessarily produce internally, but we need to remember that there are very few hitters who can approximate Dunn's value either in FA or via trade.

    Frankly, I don't see Dunn's value being increased by anything right now. He's the same guy now that he's been over the past few seasons and has a history of excellent performance.
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