Why not overpay for Dunn?

[OUReds]

I hesitate to start another Dunn thread, but here it goes anyway.

It seems a common viewpoint here on the old Sun Deck is that Dunn might be a valuable offensive player, but given that he is not a complete player, he is not worth 16-18 Million dollars/year to the Reds. I'm not particularly interested in debating the extent of how good an offensive player he is, or how poor other aspects of his game are, but given that....

a) Dunn is a valuable offensive player

b) He will get at least 16 million/year somewhere

c) The Reds are going to try to compete for a division title in the next 3-4 years

Then how are the Reds going to replace Dunn's offensive contribution over that window of competition? Other then Bruce, who is clearly ticketed to replace Griffey, there are no intriguing in-house bats close to matching Dunn. Valaika is in AA, Frazier is in High A. Neither will be ready next year and relying on them in 2010 is hardly a sure thing either.

I won't repost next year's free agents, but it's safe to say that the class is poor. Even if it weren't, since when has Cincy been able to reliably attract free agent talent without overpaying for it to a greater extent then it will take to retain Dunn?

The other possibility is a trade. Maybe Jocketty pulls off another Edmonds deal, but you can't rely on that. The alternative is using some Minor league depth to add a bat, but are we really willing to trade Frazier and Thompson to add another impact bat? Besides, there are other holes to fill on this team if we are serious about winning in the next few years (catcher, SS and another starting pitcher come to mind). Why create a new hole in the dyke when three other holes remain?

Make no mistake, last year the offense was barely above average. This year it threatens to be below average. Are we going to reap the fruits of a revamped pitching staff (admittedly not a sure thing in and of itself) only to be foiled by a poor offense that could have been, if not prevented, then ameliorated by resigning Dunn?

Maybe a 4 yr/66 Mil contract is overpaying for Dunn without considering the context. However, the Reds currently have Votto, Bruce, EE, Phillips, and Kep wrapped up for our contention window relatively cheaply. The same goes for Bray, Burton, Cueto, and (most importantly) Volquez. This creates a unique situation where we can actually afford Dunn, where in most years that would be impossible. If we let him walk, what good will additional payflex do us exactly if we can't turn it into actual production? Why not overpay for Dunn?

[PTI (pti)]

Because it's a waste of money. The Reds are a small market team, and they need to act like it. Build thru your farm system and stay away from overpriced vets. It hasn't worked out for the Mets, it hasn't worked out for the Yankees, it hasn't worked out for the Blue Jays - so why would it work out for the Reds??

[OUReds]

But we HAVE rebuilt through our farm system, or at least young players we control relatively cheaply. Once you have done that, why not add (or retain) complementary parts at market value?

If this were the Jim Bowden Reds with no youth and a poor farm system, I would be the first to agree that Dunn should go, but the money to Dunn wouldn't be a waste, it would go towards trying to get in the playoffs.

[Hondo]

But we HAVE rebuilt through our farm system, or at least young players we control relatively cheaply. Once you have done that, why not add (or retain) complementary parts at market value?

If this were the Jim Bowden Reds with no youth and a poor farm system, I would be the first to agree that Dunn should go, but the money to Dunn wouldn't be a waste, it would go towards trying to get in the playoffs.

Yeah, and I like the Idea that Dunn is Home Grown... Those players are far and few between now... Besides Dunn should just now be going into his PRIME Hitting years...

Get this team a Legit Lead Off Hitter and some Right Handed Power Protection for Adam Dunn and this team will score more Runs...

[PTI (pti)]

Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

[Hondo]

Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.

Dude, Ramirez just signed for 70 Million to buy out his arbitration years... Giambi just ripped off the Yankees with a Suplement MVP Award.

But anyhow... What are the Reds going to do with the 15 Million they save on not keeping Dunn? What?

Wait, in 5-6 years, when the New Home Grown Talent is here, then Cueto, Volquez, and Bruce will be looking at Free Agency and out the Door too...

There is no reason, not to sign Adam Dunn. What are they going to do with that Money he saves them? Nothing... Unless Corey Patterson seeks an extension and a raise.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

[Hondo]

Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.




That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

Dude, Ramirez just signed for 70 Million to buy out his arbitration years... Giambi just ripped off the Yankees with a Suplement MVP Award.

But anyhow... What are the Reds going to do with the 15 Million they save on not keeping Dunn? What?

Wait, in 5-6 years, when the New Home Grown Talent is here, then Cueto, Volquez, and Bruce will be looking at Free Agency and out the Door too...

There is no reason, not to sign Adam Dunn. What are they going to do with that Money he saves them? Nothing... Unless Corey Patterson seeks an extension and a raise.

[PTI (pti)]

^^

Invest it in more Dominicans. True story. Volquez signed for $27k, right? Cueto for $35?


Now THAT is a helluva deal.



Paying Adam Dunn more than $15 mill....is not.

[OUReds]

Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

Once a player hits free agency, that's when market value kicks in. Do you think Volquez is being paid his "market value" this year? Do you think $439,000 that is really Hanley Ramirez's market value? Of course you use young players to keep your payroll down, that's small market baseball 101, I'm not arguing against that.

What I am saying is that once you have identified a window you can realistically compete in, getting absolute maximum efficiency for every dollar takes a back seat to getting proven production.

For example, it may well be more economically "efficient" to let Dunn walk and pay Dorn the major league minimum to play left field next year, but without a way to parlay the extra money elsewhere into increased performance, overall production will sure as heck suffer.

"Throwing money around to vets like it grows on trees" is a very different matter then selectively signing productive players to market value extensions...as long as it is done with a lot of care.

Obviously you can take the scenario to far. If Dunn want a 5 yr/100 Mil contract, then see ya later thanks for the service. But if it is a matter of overpaying a bit to have a better chance at a title, sign me up.

Edit: Investing 15 million dollars in the Dominican to replace Dunn isn't going to help us compete in the next 1-4 years, and due to diminishing returns I doubt it will help after that either. I'm not interesting in perpetually rebuilding. Haven't we had enough of that?

[Ghosts of 1990]

^^

Invest it in more Dominicans. True story. Volquez signed for $27k, right? Cueto for $35?


Now THAT is a helluva deal.



Paying Adam Dunn more than $15 mill....is not.

You are so uninformed. I'll leave it at that.

[PTI (pti)]

True, I completely understand the difference. But I still don't think a player's free agent contract typically represents his "market value," but rather the money idiots are willing to OVERpay when they become desperate (raise your hand if you'd give Andruw Jones $18 mill/year).

Most everything you say is totally legitimate, and I wouldn't mind spending some big money on a truly GREAT, MVP-type player --> but Dunn ain't that guy. If he *was* that great of a player, then the Reds wouldn't struggle so much (especially offensively).


Can you count on Adam Dunn day-in and day-out to be a true SUPERstar? No. If you COULD, then, by all means, take advantage of that window of opportunity that we Reds fans think we're in right now and make a run. But you CAN'T depend on him like a true superstar, so don't pay him like a true superstar.

[Ghosts of 1990]

What I love is the idiots who decided that Dunn should be gone after a slow start. WHY?

For 5 years now he's shown that he is the same player he's always been. He'll get his #'s like he always does and continue to be one of the most consistent run producers in baseball.

Those people wanted to act like a month/slow start should outweigh a track record of 5 years.

He's the same player whether he's slumping or not and he deserves a good long term deal. Very few can do what he does and the son of a gun goes out and plays every day. He's durable and the Reds have no clue how to replace his offense. He'll be back.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Can you count on Adam Dunn day-in and day-out to be a true SUPERstar? No. If you COULD, then, by all means, take advantage of that window of opportunity that we Reds fans think we're in right now and make a run. But you CAN'T depend on him like a true superstar, so don't pay him like a true superstar.

So every player making in the $15-17 million dollar range is a 'Superstar' as you put it?

[757690]

Good post. I agree with your logic that the Reds need to add some veteran compliments to the young studs that they have coming up, and I do agree that Dunn is a good compliment to that young talent, but I don't agree that they need to or should over pay for him.

That has been my objection to re-signing Dunn all along. He has been at the heart of the Reds offense for the past four years, and has done well. But because of the market, he will get at minimum the contract that you listed, 4/$66M. It is not that he is not worth it, but that the Reds could spend that money more wisely, and being a mid market team, they need to.

Next year most likely, the Reds will have Bruce and Votto with a year under their belts, EE hopefully will be as good as he is now, either Keppinger or Alex G back at SS, and it looks like Phillips is getting better every week. That is a very good foundation for an offense.

However, they also will need to find a CF, a catcher, almost a whole new bullpen and bench, and maybe a fifth starter. That is if they keep Dunn. If they keep Dunn and pay him what he is worth, they will have no money left over to pay for any of those other positions. That means someone worse than Patterson in CF, worse than Ross at catcher, a bullpen full of Lincolns instead of Affeldts, and a fifth starter worse than Fogg.

Why not move EE to left, sign or trade for a mid range strong defensive 3B who can probably be had for mid range prospects and a $5M salary, then use the left over $10M or so to try to fill in the other gaps with real MLB starters?

Again, I may seem like a Dunn basher, but I really do like him and understand how productive he is, I just think that the money that would need to be spent on him, needs to be spent more wisely. That said, if Jocketty looks over the market and sees that what I suggested is not possible, than maybe the wisest thing is to sign Dunn?

[PTI (pti)]

So every player making in the $15-17 million dollar range is a 'Superstar' as you put it?

$15+ mill/year is SUPERSTAR money - top 25 in the majors. Several of the guys on that list don't nearly earn it (stand up and be counted, Richie Sexson), but it's superstar money nonetheless.


If it's my ballclub, I'm not paying someone like Adam Dunn superstar-type money. And that was the original question.