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Thread: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    After reading an article from BP today on the draft, I'm beginning to think there's a better chance of Brian Matusz falling to the Reds than I thought. It's still highly unlikely but the likeliness is improving. BP says the Rays won't draft Crow/Matusz. The Pirates like Tim Beckham and Pedro Alvarez with the No. 2 pick. The Royals really like Alvarez and won't let him slip past them. The Orioles at No. 4 will probably dictate whether or not Matusz falls to the Reds. BP says the Orioles really want a college pitcher and are focused on Crow/Matusz but they would think long and hard about Alvarez. The Giants at No. 5 want a college hitter, probably Gordon Beckham or Smoak but BP rumors are swirling the Giants may reach and take an up the middle college player who no one has projected as a first rounder. The Marlins are No. 6 really like HS catcher Kyle Skipworth. The best case scenario for the Reds to get Matusz would go something like this: Posey to Rays, Beckham/Alvarez to Pirates, Beckham/Alvarez to Royals, Crow to Orioles, Smoak/Beckham to Giants, Skipworth to Marlins, leaving the Reds with Brian Matusz.

    Here's a summary of the Reds potential pick:

    BP says the Reds are leaning toward a college player for sure. Their realistic preference is Gordon Beckham because they need a long-term shortstop. Crow and Matusz falling to No. 7 would be tempting because Jocketty likes college pitchers. They also mention the Reds have interest in Miami 1B Yonder Alonso.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    I thought I read somewhere that G. Beckham probably wasn't going to stick at SS?
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    I thought I read somewhere that G. Beckham probably wasn't going to stick at SS?
    Reports says he has above average range and he's capable of being an excellent defender but milb.com says he may move because of his size. BS if you ask me. If he's got above average range then he should be able to stick at SS.

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    MLBDraft ( http://www.mlb-draft.com/mock-draft.html ) has updated their mock draft and have the Reds choosing Matusz.

    If the Reds could get one of G. Beckham, Smoak or Matusz, I would be thrilled

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    I don't know how to do cartwheels but I'm going to learn very soon because I'm going to turn cartwheels on draft day if the Reds get Brian Matusz. He's the perfect fit for the Reds rotation - a big strong, durable lefty with four above average pitches and he profiles as a top-of-rotation type pitcher. He'll probably spend a year in the minors and reach the majors sometime in 2009. Imagine this 2010 rotation:

    RHP Edinson Volquez
    RHP Aaron Harang
    LHP Brian Matusz
    RHP Johnny Cueto
    RHP Homer Bailey/RHP Daryl Thompson

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    Yesterday I projected Matusz to the Reds, too. I hope that has people excited.

    Seriously, though, I think I still prefer Posey over anyone.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    I don't think they'll take Smoak at #7. I think it will be between Crow, Matusz, and Beckham. I'll be satisfied with any of them.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Yesterday I projected Matusz to the Reds, too. I hope that has people excited.

    Seriously, though, I think I still prefer Posey over anyone.
    Me too, but I think he'll go before #7.
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    Re: Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

    Brian Matusz has been my favorite of this class all along. The only one I'd maybe want over him would be Posey, but Posey will not fall to the Reds. Brian Matusz would be an amazing pick for the Reds if indeed they can land him. I would be very disappointed if he was available and they didn't take him.


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