Baseball America tidbit on the Reds draft

[OnBaseMachine]

You mentioned in a chat Premium that you keep hearing rumors about Sarasota (Fla.) High two-way star Casey Kelly to the Reds at No. 7, but that he's more of a mid-to-late first-round talent. Do you think Cincinnati might cut a predraft below-slot deal with him after spending $2 million on Juan Duran earlier this spring? That would be a tough blow to Reds fans, especially if they passed on someone like Missouri righthander Aaron Crow.

Greg Kathman
Cincinnati

First, a history lesson:

In March 1999, the Reds signed the first player to go through the posting process with a Japanese club, Dominican outfielder Alejandro Diaz. Between his bonus ($1.175 million) and bidding for his rights, Cincinnati spent roughly $2 million. It turned out that Diaz was three years older than believed, and he never advanced past Double-A.

Worse yet, the Diaz signing took a toll on the Reds' budget for signing amateur players. They signed their 1999 first-rounder, Ty Howington, to a 2000 contract so his $1.75 million bonus wouldn't be paid until the following a year. As a result, when Cincinnati had three of the first 46 picks in the 2000 draft, it spent them on two players who agreed to take no upfront bonus (David Espinosa, Dane Sardinha) and another who signed a 2001 contract (Dustin Moseley). Pushing Moseley's $930,000 bonus forward a year led to the Reds' decision to use their 2001 first-rounder on Jeremy Sowers—who had no intention of foregoing a scholarship to Vanderbilt. Cincinnati even went cheap with the sandwich pick it got in 2002 for not signing Sowers, as it played hardball with college senior Mark Schramek.

So Greg may be fearing a repeat of what happened with Diaz. The good news is that there's been no talk of the Reds trying to go cheap with the No. 7 pick, even though that slot last year was worth $2.07 million, roughly what Duran received.

Kelly's father Pat manages the Reds' Rookie-level Gulf Coast League affiliate, which is one reason Chris has been tied closely to Cincinnati. But other teams think the Reds legitimately are intrigued by Kelly's talent, and he has the type of athletic upside that scouting director Chris Buckley loves. As mentioned in the first Ask BA question above, Kelly's scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee gives him extra leverage, and he wouldn't be a discount signing.

That said, Kelly would be a bit of a reach at No. 7. If Crow were to fall to the Reds, and there's a strong possibility that may happen, he'd be a perfect fit for them. As one of the top-tier college pitchers, he'd likely command a major league contract, but it still would be tough for Cincinnati to pass him up.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...08/266153.html

[OnBaseMachine]

Kelly is a good player but I'll be extremely ticked off if the Reds draft Kelly over one of Alvarez/Gordon Beckham/Tim Beckham/Matusz/Crow/Smoak/Posey.

[Cedric]

Kelly is a good player but I'll be extremely ticked off if the Reds draft Kelly over one of Alvarez/Gordon Beckham/Tim Beckham/Matusz/Crow/Smoak/Posey.

Agreed. The Reds simply don't have the track record to be taking another high ceiling/high risk pick. You can't do that with a top ten pick after you just gambled big time on Stubbs.

[TheBigLebowski]

I will throw something if we take Casey Kelly.

[RedlegJake]

Kelley at pick 83 I'd be tickled. At pick #7 I'd think someone lost their blinkin mind.

[OnBaseMachine]

Baseball Prospectus says the Reds are leaning toward a college player. I believe that is more accurate.

[princeton]

those major league contracts used to go to more polished products than Crow

Kelly at number 7? it wouldn't shock. For some reason, it reminds me of drafting Austin Kearns, who was also supposed to go about 15 picks later.

of course, the risky 2-sport player in that draft was Adam Dunn, picked in round 2

[Benihana]

those major league contracts used to go to more polished products than Crow

Kelly at number 7? it wouldn't shock. For some reason, it reminds me of drafting Austin Kearns, who was also supposed to go about 15 picks later.

of course, the risky 2-sport player in that draft was Adam Dunn, picked in round 2

you like Crow or no?

[princeton]

you like Crow or no?

it's easy for me to say yes; however, I don't have to give him an $8mill major league contract.

with Crow, the question is not whether one likes him or not, but whether one thinks that he's at least a 2 and whether one thinks that he'll contribute on a fast timetable. The fact that the Reds will be inexpensive in other places, given how little some players like Votto and Bruce and Volquez and Cueto will be costing us in the near future, makes you think that maybe Crow makes economical sense IF he's ready quickly-- we'd still have cash that we could use to fill other needs even though we'd be blowing a lot on this draft.

I don't have any problem with drafting him, though to me the lefty pitcher looks like a better fit. you could also draft one of the lefty sluggers but then you'd need to trade one or more of the major league guys. but that seems do-able. There's a lot of good plays this year. how much do you want to spend, and how many trades do you think that you can make?

all that said, I still expect to see the lesser Beckham in Billings.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Draft Smoak and within the next year trade Votto to Toronto for Alex Rios.

[lollipopcurve]

Draft Smoak and within the next year trade Votto to Toronto for Alex Rios.

Sign Dunn?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Sign Dunn?

Most definitely.

But if they don't sign Dunn, Rios would be a good guy to go after. He struggling this year, but he's young and signed through 2014.