Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.
Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?
I see depth but few top end guys.
Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.
I would say Frazier and Thompson would qualify as mid Top-100 type players.
Mesoraco would have a shot if he keeps hitting in Dayton. And if Vailaka turns around in AA and starts hitting again, I think he's forced the Reds to consider him as a future 2B prospect.
And Bailey's numbers, for a 21 yr old in AAA - are excellent. He's still the No. 1 prospect by a long shot.
No one comes close to Bruce, but that guy is a once in decade type of player to come thru the system.
It's certainly no shame to have graduated three studs to the majors in one year - when have the Reds ever done that before. But if we're talking about Vailaka at No. 4 instead of Johnny Cueto - well the drop off is pretty sharp.
It's always been my view that it's the top-end guys who really define the system's value. The notion of "depth" is difficult to nail down, in my opinion. Generally, I think it means "guys who could be good, but we're not sure." So, while it's certain that the Reds have "more depth" than they used to, it's difficult to know if any of the players will emerge as top prospects.Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.
Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?
I see depth but few top end guys.
Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.
Enjoy the top 4 (assuming Bailey eventually cements his worthiness in one way or another before it's all said and done). The harvest is almost all in, and we should expect a marked improvement at the major league level for the next several years -- if they don't get it right this time, after producing a handful of excellent prospects, they will have missed their best chance in a long, long time.
Now the system returns to normalcy. It's probably best to rank it in the vast middle of organizations. Will any of Frazier, Stubbs, Francisco, Duran, Valaika, Mesoraco, Soto, etc., become 150-game, above-average major league regulars? Will the system produce a pitcher who looks like a #3 starter at least? (Looks iffy now, but if they draft Crow or Matusz, maybe yes.) Can Roenicke or Watson, or someone else we don't quite recognize yet, become a dominant setup man and eventually move into the closer's role? Too soon to tell.
The corollary is this... while the top-end guys are the best gauge of your system's value, the organization's willingness to go with younger guys in middle relief, in defensive positions like 2B and in platoons, also defines how much you can expect to get out of your system. Often, this is the payoff for that nebulous "depth" attributed to a system without prospects with star potential.
I was going to release my updated Reds Top Prospects list for June following the draft, but to respond to your post- the Reds still have three "A" caliber prospects in the minors following Bruce's promotion in Daryl Thompson, Todd Frazier, and yes, Homer Bailey. They also have a multitude of "B" level prospects with guys like Valaika, Roenicke, Maloney, Wood, Francisco, Waring, and Stubbs. With the addition of a top talent that should hopefully come from the #7 overall pick in this draft, that still leaves the Reds fairly stacked on the farm. Obviously any time you subtract the #1 prospect in baseball your overall farm ranking is going to take a hit, but I still believe the Reds are in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of minor league talent now excluding Bruce.
Last edited by Benihana; 05-27-2008 at 11:08 AM.
Go BLUE!!!
At this moment in time, the Reds have 3 top 100 prospects in baseball with Bailey, Stubbs and Frazier. Thompson is getting close, but I think we need to see it over a longer period of time still given his past history. Then after that there are still a lot of guys that are strong prospects throughout the system.
Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.Originally Posted by dougdirt
He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.
Go BLUE!!!
Read your last statement though, at this point doesn't mean much. Its all about future value. Is it possible Thompson jumps past Stubbs? Certainly. It won't be now though, because no one is sure if he is going to maintain his stuff through the season. He didn't last year and with his shoulder injury in the past, its a concern scouts I have talked to have had with him when looking at this year. If he does, then yes, he is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs is. Until then though, I think a lot of the Daryl Thompson stuff should be cautiously tempered.
You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.
Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".
Higher chance of making the major leagues?
I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.
Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.
Homer Bailey is still a top ten or 15 prospect in baseball IMO. Todd Frazier is solidifying himself as a top prospect and would probably crack the top 75. Baseball America seems to be falling in love with Daryl Thompson so it's a good bet that he'll crack the top 100. If Drew Stubbs can hit close to .300 and OPS over .800 then he'll reach the top 100. Same with Devin Mesoraco, if he hits like he is right now over a full season he'll probably creep into a top 100 list. Of course there's a chance the Reds No. 7 overall pick could also land on a top 100 list if he produces. Juan Duran is the wildcard. Baseball America loves him, so if he plays in the GCL or Pioneer League this year and hits well then expect to see him on their list. Obviously they all won't reach the top 100 at one time but four or five possibly could.
I still think the organization is in nice shape even after the graduation of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto. There are some nice polished products Todd Frazier, Daryl Thompson, Chris Valaika and Matt Maloney who could help the Reds some time within the next year or so and there's still plenty of high upside talent, especially in the lower minors. Obviously there is Homer Bailey in AAA, but then you have high upside guys like Kyle Lotzkar, Josh Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, and maybe Devin Mesoraco if you want to put him in this group. Juan Francisco could be put in this class if he could ever learn just a little bit of plate discipline. His power potential is off the charts but he may never be able to show it off unless he develops an idea of the strikezone. Juan Duran and Nefi Soto are two guys I think have a chance to be stud hitters soon. Soto is said to have decent plate discipline already, to go along with a quick bat and wiry frame that projects as a possible 30 homerun guy someday. We already know about Juan Duran's tools. He's got a chance to be a Jay Bruce type prospect someday if he develops as expected.
Then there are guys like Chris Valaika who won't be a superstar or anything but is a player who can just flat out hit at any position he plays. He could probably see some time in Cincy next season. The only question about him is where will he play? He could be a guy in the Jeff Keppinger mold who plays 2B, SS, 3B and gets plenty of atbats moving around the diamond. Anther guys who doesn't project as a star but could help the Reds in CF is Shaun Cumberland. And then there are solid bullpen options like Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola and Carlos Fisher once they workout their struggles, and Sean Watson too. Tyler Pelland also seems to be pitching better lately and he's already on the 40-man roster.
Other guys who project as depth off the bench who I think will be major leaguers someday: Justin Turner, Chris Heisey, Tonys Gutierrez.
As you can see, I'm still pretty high on the organization. It may not be top five type talent still but the Reds are still in the upper half in baseball IMO.
Projection. I really don't see Maloney becoming more than a solid #4 pitcher in the major leagues. Thompson has a much higher ceiling than that, even if they have similar numbers. Maloney wouldn't make my Top 5, even without Bruce.
My current top 10:
1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Valaika
9. Strait/Cumberland
10. Roenicke
Ben Juckich is pitching pretty well at AA; pretty old at 25 but he could make the jump to AAA this season. I think he is a pitcher to watch out for.
It's interesting that your top 5 picks fit in very well with the big club's needs. Pitching (everyone needs); a catcher; right handed hitting; centerfield. Obviously most of these guys are a couple of years away and things will change. But if any of those top talents emerge quickly, there will be a place at GABP just waiting for them.
Overall, this thread indicates a lot of good prospects, perhaps no "sure things" like Bruce or "almost sure things" like Cueto, but some who are close. A good first pick in early June would bolster the organization even more.
You forgot the one, the only Juan Duran
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