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Thread: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

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  1. #1
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    Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.

    Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?

    I see depth but few top end guys.

    Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.

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    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    I would say Frazier and Thompson would qualify as mid Top-100 type players.

    Mesoraco would have a shot if he keeps hitting in Dayton. And if Vailaka turns around in AA and starts hitting again, I think he's forced the Reds to consider him as a future 2B prospect.

    And Bailey's numbers, for a 21 yr old in AAA - are excellent. He's still the No. 1 prospect by a long shot.

    No one comes close to Bruce, but that guy is a once in decade type of player to come thru the system.

    It's certainly no shame to have graduated three studs to the majors in one year - when have the Reds ever done that before. But if we're talking about Vailaka at No. 4 instead of Johnny Cueto - well the drop off is pretty sharp.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.

    Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?

    I see depth but few top end guys.

    Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.
    It's always been my view that it's the top-end guys who really define the system's value. The notion of "depth" is difficult to nail down, in my opinion. Generally, I think it means "guys who could be good, but we're not sure." So, while it's certain that the Reds have "more depth" than they used to, it's difficult to know if any of the players will emerge as top prospects.

    Enjoy the top 4 (assuming Bailey eventually cements his worthiness in one way or another before it's all said and done). The harvest is almost all in, and we should expect a marked improvement at the major league level for the next several years -- if they don't get it right this time, after producing a handful of excellent prospects, they will have missed their best chance in a long, long time.

    Now the system returns to normalcy. It's probably best to rank it in the vast middle of organizations. Will any of Frazier, Stubbs, Francisco, Duran, Valaika, Mesoraco, Soto, etc., become 150-game, above-average major league regulars? Will the system produce a pitcher who looks like a #3 starter at least? (Looks iffy now, but if they draft Crow or Matusz, maybe yes.) Can Roenicke or Watson, or someone else we don't quite recognize yet, become a dominant setup man and eventually move into the closer's role? Too soon to tell.

    The corollary is this... while the top-end guys are the best gauge of your system's value, the organization's willingness to go with younger guys in middle relief, in defensive positions like 2B and in platoons, also defines how much you can expect to get out of your system. Often, this is the payoff for that nebulous "depth" attributed to a system without prospects with star potential.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    I was going to release my updated Reds Top Prospects list for June following the draft, but to respond to your post- the Reds still have three "A" caliber prospects in the minors following Bruce's promotion in Daryl Thompson, Todd Frazier, and yes, Homer Bailey. They also have a multitude of "B" level prospects with guys like Valaika, Roenicke, Maloney, Wood, Francisco, Waring, and Stubbs. With the addition of a top talent that should hopefully come from the #7 overall pick in this draft, that still leaves the Reds fairly stacked on the farm. Obviously any time you subtract the #1 prospect in baseball your overall farm ranking is going to take a hit, but I still believe the Reds are in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of minor league talent now excluding Bruce.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-27-2008 at 11:08 AM.
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    At this moment in time, the Reds have 3 top 100 prospects in baseball with Bailey, Stubbs and Frazier. Thompson is getting close, but I think we need to see it over a longer period of time still given his past history. Then after that there are still a lot of guys that are strong prospects throughout the system.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At this moment in time, the Reds have 3 top 100 prospects in baseball with Bailey, Stubbs and Frazier. Thompson is getting close, but I think we need to see it over a longer period of time still given his past history. Then after that there are still a lot of guys that are strong prospects throughout the system.
    Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

    He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

    He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.
    Read your last statement though, at this point doesn't mean much. Its all about future value. Is it possible Thompson jumps past Stubbs? Certainly. It won't be now though, because no one is sure if he is going to maintain his stuff through the season. He didn't last year and with his shoulder injury in the past, its a concern scouts I have talked to have had with him when looking at this year. If he does, then yes, he is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs is. Until then though, I think a lot of the Daryl Thompson stuff should be cautiously tempered.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

    He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.
    You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.

    Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".

    Higher chance of making the major leagues?

    I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.

    Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".

    Higher chance of making the major leagues?

    I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.
    How has Stubbs' stock risen since the beginning of the season? If anything I would argue it has dropped. He is having another poor year and this time there are no injury excuses.

    http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=453211

    I was shocked to see that Stubbs was ranked No. 100 coming into the year, but he won't be ranked in the top 100 any longer. And don't forget he's in high-A ball right now when a 2006 first-round draft pick out of college should be at least in AAA or the Majors. So, not only is he putting up weak stats again, he's doing it at a very low level for his age/draft position.

    Drew Stubbs will make it to the Majors one day and will have some cups of coffee here and there. But he will never be an everyday starter in MLB IMO.

  10. #10
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Homer Bailey is still a top ten or 15 prospect in baseball IMO. Todd Frazier is solidifying himself as a top prospect and would probably crack the top 75. Baseball America seems to be falling in love with Daryl Thompson so it's a good bet that he'll crack the top 100. If Drew Stubbs can hit close to .300 and OPS over .800 then he'll reach the top 100. Same with Devin Mesoraco, if he hits like he is right now over a full season he'll probably creep into a top 100 list. Of course there's a chance the Reds No. 7 overall pick could also land on a top 100 list if he produces. Juan Duran is the wildcard. Baseball America loves him, so if he plays in the GCL or Pioneer League this year and hits well then expect to see him on their list. Obviously they all won't reach the top 100 at one time but four or five possibly could.

    I still think the organization is in nice shape even after the graduation of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto. There are some nice polished products Todd Frazier, Daryl Thompson, Chris Valaika and Matt Maloney who could help the Reds some time within the next year or so and there's still plenty of high upside talent, especially in the lower minors. Obviously there is Homer Bailey in AAA, but then you have high upside guys like Kyle Lotzkar, Josh Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, and maybe Devin Mesoraco if you want to put him in this group. Juan Francisco could be put in this class if he could ever learn just a little bit of plate discipline. His power potential is off the charts but he may never be able to show it off unless he develops an idea of the strikezone. Juan Duran and Nefi Soto are two guys I think have a chance to be stud hitters soon. Soto is said to have decent plate discipline already, to go along with a quick bat and wiry frame that projects as a possible 30 homerun guy someday. We already know about Juan Duran's tools. He's got a chance to be a Jay Bruce type prospect someday if he develops as expected.

    Then there are guys like Chris Valaika who won't be a superstar or anything but is a player who can just flat out hit at any position he plays. He could probably see some time in Cincy next season. The only question about him is where will he play? He could be a guy in the Jeff Keppinger mold who plays 2B, SS, 3B and gets plenty of atbats moving around the diamond. Anther guys who doesn't project as a star but could help the Reds in CF is Shaun Cumberland. And then there are solid bullpen options like Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola and Carlos Fisher once they workout their struggles, and Sean Watson too. Tyler Pelland also seems to be pitching better lately and he's already on the 40-man roster.

    Other guys who project as depth off the bench who I think will be major leaguers someday: Justin Turner, Chris Heisey, Tonys Gutierrez.

    As you can see, I'm still pretty high on the organization. It may not be top five type talent still but the Reds are still in the upper half in baseball IMO.

  11. #11
    Member Oxilon's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    We already know about Juan Duran's tools. He's got a chance to be a Jay Bruce type prospect someday if he develops as expected.
    I think you're jumping the gun on this one. As previously mentioned in this thread, Jay Bruce was a once in a decade prospect for this organization. He was a national player of the year nominee in high school, a first round draft pick, and has sense been given several acclaimed awards including best minor league player.

    Now, Jaun Duran has yet to step on the field of the GCL, never the less the AAA Futures All Star Game. Yes, he certainly has the physical gifts and potential to someday be a top minor league prospect, but I wouldn't go as far as saying "if he develops as expected" he should be the next Jay Bruce. Especially when "developing" is the hard part for prospects and it's rare for prospects to ever fulfill their potential, never the less a 16 year old who's just stepping into the GCL for the first time.
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Oxilon View Post
    I think you're jumping the gun on this one. As previously mentioned in this thread, Jay Bruce was a once in a decade prospect for this organization. He was a national player of the year nominee in high school, a first round draft pick, and has sense been given several acclaimed awards including best minor league player.

    Now, Jaun Duran has yet to step on the field of the GCL, never the less the AAA Futures All Star Game. Yes, he certainly has the physical gifts and potential to someday be a top minor league prospect, but I wouldn't go as far as saying "if he develops as expected" he should be the next Jay Bruce. Especially when "developing" is the hard part for prospects and it's rare for prospects to ever fulfill their potential, never the less a 16 year old who's just stepping into the GCL for the first time.
    That's why I said he's got a chance. I never said he would be another Jay Bruce. I said he's got a chance to be that type of prospect. His scouting report is amazing. I've never seen anything like it to be honest. I realize there is a good chance he doesn't make it, but just thinking about his potential has to get you excited.

  13. #13
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.
    Projection. I really don't see Maloney becoming more than a solid #4 pitcher in the major leagues. Thompson has a much higher ceiling than that, even if they have similar numbers. Maloney wouldn't make my Top 5, even without Bruce.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Projection. I really don't see Maloney becoming more than a solid #4 pitcher in the major leagues. Thompson has a much higher ceiling than that, even if they have similar numbers. Maloney wouldn't make my Top 5, even without Bruce.
    Then I am glad you aren't running the Red's ML system, as Maloney is obviously a top 5 talent.

    LH SP with his K rate at AAA ARE top 5 talents. He scuffled early, but has rebounded nicely in May. I see him at #4 behind Bailey, Thompson and Frazier.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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