Reds Minor League System After Bruce

[Kc61]

Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

For a starting pitcher, a 1.26 WHIP is quite good.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

For a starting pitcher, a 1.26 WHIP is quite good.

Not in AAA.

Not from a top 10 prospect.

I would take 1.26 from Bailey in a heartbeat at the major league level.

[DTCromer]

Okay, my top ten. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but I'm too lazy to look through the organization at the moment:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Todd Frazier
3. Juan Duran
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Travis Wood
8. Matt Maloney
9. Josh Roenicke
10. Kyle Lotzkar

Homer doesn't deserve the top spot. I would give it to Todd Frazier and Daryl Thompson before Homer. At least they're both PERFORMING like top prospects should.

[Aronchis]

I guess Homer deserves the top spot. I would give it to Todd Frazier and Daryl Thompson before Homer. At least they're both PERFORMING like top prospects should.

Thompson's performance has been a bit overblown. He has been fairly lucky and he isn't missing a overly impressive number of bats in AA. But for now, he shall be ahead of Bailey.

I used to call June sweeps month for minor leaguers because impressions can change alot. By July a majority of the season is over and guys usually are in full season readiness. Thompson could struggle in AAA while Bailey goes on another June surge(velocity related) as the weather warms. Maloney is another example of a pitcher at the time of his trade to the Reds, wasn't putting up overly impressive numbers then started missing bats at will after the trade.

I love June with minor league baseball. Put up or shut up time.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I would like to see Bailey's K and BB numbers in line with Maloney's. Granted Maloney is two full years older, but he was not a top 10 pick and is not considered the prospect that Bailey is considered.

Maloney (going back to last year) now with 13 starts at Louisville:

13 GS
71.2 IP (5.5 per start)...kind of low
72 K (9.04 K/9)....very nice
22 BB (2.76 BB/9)....decent
64 H (8.03 H/9)
1.20 WHIP

Based on just these number's and Bailey's, (plus the extra seasoning of Maloney) there is no doubt that Maloney is currently the man if Walt needs to dip down into Louisville for some starts.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Thompson's performance has been a bit overblown. He has been fairly lucky and he isn't missing a overly impressive number of bats in AA. But for now, he shall be ahead of Bailey.

I think it's premature to place Thompson over Bailey. In fact, I doubt he does any better at AAA than Homer is currently doing.

Thompson is 23. Bailey is 22. Bailey is a former top 10 pick and consensus top 50 prospect. Thompson is not.

Homer also up similar numbers in Chattanooga at the age of 20 in 2006 as Thompson this year at 23.



Thompson in 2008 (23 yrs old)

10 GS
61.1 IP (6.1 per start)
56 K (8.22 K/9)
14 BB (2.05 BB/9)
44 H (6.45 H/9)
.95 WHIP

Bailey in 2006 (20 yrs old)

13 GS
68 IP (5.23 per start)....very low due to command issues.
77 K (10.19 K/9)
28 BB (3.70 BB/9)
50 H (6.62 H/9)
1.15 WHIP

How would I rank them as overall prospects (ceiling):

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Wood
4. Maloney

How would I rank them as ready for the reds today:

1. Maloney
2. Bailey
3. Thompson
4. Wood

[Aronchis]

I think it's premature to place Thompson over Bailey. In fact, I doubt he does any better at AAA than Homer is currently doing.

Thompson is 23. Bailey is 22. Bailey is a former top 10 pick and consensus top 50 prospect. Thompson is not.

Homer also up similar numbers in Chattanooga at the age of 20 in 2006 as Thompson this year at 23.



Thompson in 2008 (23 yrs old)

10 GS
61.1 IP (6.1 per start)
56 K (8.22 K/9)
14 BB (2.05 BB/9)
44 H (6.45 H/9)
.95 WHIP

Bailey in 2006 (20 yrs old)

13 GS
68 IP (5.23 per start)....very low due to command issues.
77 K (10.19 K/9)
28 BB (3.70 BB/9)
50 H (6.62 H/9)
1.15 WHIP

How would I rank them as overall prospects (ceiling):

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Wood
4. Maloney

How would I rank them as ready for the reds today:

1. Maloney
2. Bailey
3. Thompson
4. Wood

It wasn't due to command issues, Homer was on a pitch count. He missed more bats than Thompson and allowed less hits. Matter of fact, if you take away a tuneup start gone bad in a cool September night, his H/9 was even better as was his walks(24 in 68I's isn't great, but hardly horrible).

Thompson in AAA will be interesting.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

It wasn't due to command issues, Homer was on a pitch count. He missed more bats than Thompson and allowed less hits. Matter of fact, if you take away a tuneup start gone bad in a cool September night, his H/9 was even better as was his walks(24 in 68I's isn't great, but hardly horrible).

Interesting. I forgot he was on a pitch count.

[Blitz Dorsey]

You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.

Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".

Higher chance of making the major leagues?

I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.

How has Stubbs' stock risen since the beginning of the season? If anything I would argue it has dropped. He is having another poor year and this time there are no injury excuses.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=453211

I was shocked to see that Stubbs was ranked No. 100 coming into the year, but he won't be ranked in the top 100 any longer. And don't forget he's in high-A ball right now when a 2006 first-round draft pick out of college should be at least in AAA or the Majors. So, not only is he putting up weak stats again, he's doing it at a very low level for his age/draft position.

Drew Stubbs will make it to the Majors one day and will have some cups of coffee here and there. But he will never be an everyday starter in MLB IMO.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I think people are underestimating how good Stubbs has been this year, as he is back on the map as a prospect, IMO. He will be a major leaguer no matter what, with his GG defense, speed, base stealing abilities, and amazing ability to take a walk. Plus, he has been hitting fairly well in a pitchers league. Now we just need the power to come around. I am in the minority, but my Top 5 is Bailey-Frazier-Stubbs-Thompson-Mez

We'll agree to disagree that .274 with 2 HRs is "hitting fairly well" for a first-round draft pick playing in high A ball two years removed from the draft. Oh yeah, and he was a three-year college player. If Stubbs was putting up these numbers at AAA then I could buy what you are selling. As is, he is far behind schedule and shouldn't be counted on for anything until he proves he can play well at high A and beyond. At some point I want to stop hearing about tools and start hearing about production from Drew Stubbs. I think it's great he walks a lot (.370 OBP is solid), is a good baserunner (17 steals, 4 CS) and a good defender. But the kid can't hit a lick. And if he's just a so-so hitter at high-A ball at this age, he is really going to be a bad hitter in the Majors. I hope he proves me wrong because I would love to see the Reds have a good RHH OF just for depth if nothing else.

[Kc61]

We'll agree to disagree that .274 with 2 HRs is "hitting fairly well" for a first-round draft pick playing in high A ball two years removed from the draft. Oh yeah, and he was a three-year college player. If Stubbs was putting up these numbers at AAA then I could buy what you are selling. As is, he is far behind schedule and shouldn't be counted on for anything until he proves he can play well at high A and beyond. At some point I want to stop hearing about tools and start hearing about production from Drew Stubbs. I think it's great he walks a lot (.370 OBP is solid), is a good baserunner (17 steals, 4 CS) and a good defender. But the kid can't hit a lick. And if he's just a so-so hitter at high-A ball at this age, he is really going to be a bad hitter in the Majors. I hope he proves me wrong because I would love to see the Reds have a good RHH OF just for depth if nothing else.

Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?

[crazyredfan40]

Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?

Stubbs...I continue to read and read all the negative thoughts about Stubbs and I just don't understand them...Some need to wrap their head around the word potential, and that is what Stubbs has...He doesn't hit for a great average, like say .300, but he gets on base and the key is to not make outs...

He can run, play defense, take a walk, the only thing he really struggles at is hitting, but as Doug has continued to say he still has a good line drive rate, and I think the power numbers could go up a little bit when he gets out of Sarasota as it is not a power league...Also remember that the whole team has slumped as of late...

I understand that some are still upset about the fact that we didn't draft someone else, and they want more out of a first round draft pick, but Stubbs has the potential to be a solid major league player for us, and we will have the power positions filled, and we need a guy in CF to cover ground, get on base and make things happen...Just the type of player that Stubbs is...He can obviously take a walk, so the problem to me is when swinging he misses too much, don't think he is chasing bad pitches...If the K rate can dip He will be a very good player for us, with what we need...Not every prospect can be Jay Bruce...

[dougdirt]

Stubbs is in the best pitchers league in baseball and is producing better than he did last year and his stock has dropped?

[crazyredfan40]

Stubbs is in the best pitchers league in baseball and is producing better than he did last year and his stock has dropped?

Yeah I don't understand it either...I think he must be too old...

[RedlegJake]

I think Chattanooga will define Stubbs better. Right now he's in a very, very pitching freindly league and still producing okay. I have a feeling that he'll put up better numbers in AA and then you'll see his stock rise swiftly.