I used to call June sweeps month for minor leaguers because impressions can change alot. By July a majority of the season is over and guys usually are in full season readiness. Thompson could struggle in AAA while Bailey goes on another June surge(velocity related) as the weather warms. Maloney is another example of a pitcher at the time of his trade to the Reds, wasn't putting up overly impressive numbers then started missing bats at will after the trade.
I love June with minor league baseball. Put up or shut up time.
I would like to see Bailey's K and BB numbers in line with Maloney's. Granted Maloney is two full years older, but he was not a top 10 pick and is not considered the prospect that Bailey is considered.
Maloney (going back to last year) now with 13 starts at Louisville:
71.2 IP (5.5 per start)...kind of low
72 K (9.04 K/9)....very nice
22 BB (2.76 BB/9)....decent
64 H (8.03 H/9)
Based on just these number's and Bailey's, (plus the extra seasoning of Maloney) there is no doubt that Maloney is currently the man if Walt needs to dip down into Louisville for some starts.
I think it's premature to place Thompson over Bailey. In fact, I doubt he does any better at AAA than Homer is currently doing.
Thompson is 23. Bailey is 22. Bailey is a former top 10 pick and consensus top 50 prospect. Thompson is not.
Homer also up similar numbers in Chattanooga at the age of 20 in 2006 as Thompson this year at 23.
Thompson in 2008 (23 yrs old)
61.1 IP (6.1 per start)
56 K (8.22 K/9)
14 BB (2.05 BB/9)
44 H (6.45 H/9)
Bailey in 2006 (20 yrs old)
68 IP (5.23 per start)....very low due to command issues.
77 K (10.19 K/9)
28 BB (3.70 BB/9)
50 H (6.62 H/9)
How would I rank them as overall prospects (ceiling):
How would I rank them as ready for the reds today:
Thompson in AAA will be interesting.
I was shocked to see that Stubbs was ranked No. 100 coming into the year, but he won't be ranked in the top 100 any longer. And don't forget he's in high-A ball right now when a 2006 first-round draft pick out of college should be at least in AAA or the Majors. So, not only is he putting up weak stats again, he's doing it at a very low level for his age/draft position.
Drew Stubbs will make it to the Majors one day and will have some cups of coffee here and there. But he will never be an everyday starter in MLB IMO.
On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?
He can run, play defense, take a walk, the only thing he really struggles at is hitting, but as Doug has continued to say he still has a good line drive rate, and I think the power numbers could go up a little bit when he gets out of Sarasota as it is not a power league...Also remember that the whole team has slumped as of late...
I understand that some are still upset about the fact that we didn't draft someone else, and they want more out of a first round draft pick, but Stubbs has the potential to be a solid major league player for us, and we will have the power positions filled, and we need a guy in CF to cover ground, get on base and make things happen...Just the type of player that Stubbs is...He can obviously take a walk, so the problem to me is when swinging he misses too much, don't think he is chasing bad pitches...If the K rate can dip He will be a very good player for us, with what we need...Not every prospect can be Jay Bruce...
Stubbs is in the best pitchers league in baseball and is producing better than he did last year and his stock has dropped?
I think Chattanooga will define Stubbs better. Right now he's in a very, very pitching freindly league and still producing okay. I have a feeling that he'll put up better numbers in AA and then you'll see his stock rise swiftly.
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