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Thread: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

  1. #76
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nothing against Stubbs who is likely going to be a major leaguer because true centerfielders with decent on base skills are valuable.

    But isn't it odd that his offensive performance is always excused by some external factor -- injury, the league. It's always something.

    Reality -- guy is a good centerfield prospect who shows good on base skills but developing major league hitting ability is proving to be a challenge.
    I don't really think its odd that his offensive performance has had circumstances surrounding it because both of them are absolutely true. I don't think he is ever going to be a real good hitter because of the strikeouts, but I think he will be an average hitting CF in the majors.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really think its odd that his offensive performance has had circumstances surrounding it because both of them are absolutely true. I don't think he is ever going to be a real good hitter because of the strikeouts, but I think he will be an average hitting CF in the majors.
    I feel the same way, I see him moving up the ladder hitting around .280 or so in AA and AAA but once getting the call up, hitting around the same clip that he is now .260-.270 with a .360-.370 obp stealing 40+ bags and playing GG defense, which will be just fine by me

  4. #78
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.) I just want him to be not two-years at least behind schedule for a player drafted No. 9 overall. The guy is struggling with the bat in high A ball two years after he was drafted out of college. The argument that "Well, the only thing he doesn't do well is hit" is quite humorous to me. It's akin to, "She's really hot, except her face and body."

    Drew Stubbs is not good and it was a huge reach to take him when we did. He will make the Major Leagues eventually but will never be an everyday starter. I have said my peace. Rip away.

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    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

    On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?
    Just when you think Stubbs might have a future as a contact hitter/speed guy (despite his large frame) you remember the alarming rate in which he strikes out. And you're right, if he was a power hitter I could live with it. But 2 HRs in almost 200 ABs in high A ball? The guy is just not getting it done and the excuses are falling on deaf ears at this point.

  6. #80
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.)
    Drew Stubbs is not good. Rip away.
    No one hits in the FSL outside of Jay Bruce is the point I was trying to make. Go back and look at the history of the league.... guys just don't hit there. Good players, very good players.... don't hit there.

    Ryan Braun - Age 22 - hit .273/.342/.436 in the FSL.

    Ryan Howard - Age 23 - hit .304/.374/.514

    Chase Utley - Age 22 - hit .257/.324/.422

    Russell Martin - Age 21 - hit .250/.366/.421

    Chris Duncan - Age 22 - hit .254/.322/.315

    Alex Rios - Age 21 - hit .304/.344/.408

    Guys generally don't excel in the FSL, they survive it and thrive when they leave it. The ones that excel in the FSL are rare cases.

    Drew Stubbs is fine. .270/.370/.405 in the FSL is a line that certainly is not an issue. He has struck out 55 times in 216 times to the plate. Not impressive or anything, thats 25.7% of the time. Everyones favorite, Todd Frazier currently has 21 strikeouts in 85 times to the plate, or 24.7%. Yeah, there is an age difference there of course, but still, no one is making much fuss about it right now. I think that people really underestimate just how difficult the FSL is on hitters when they look at Stubbs line and think he is struggling.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    I remember on a Brewers fansite them getting pissed during a AA game later that year that Bailey blew Braun a kiss and then proceeded to strike him out. My how times have changed. Braun has become a mega-star. He didn't look that great in 2006.

    Stubbs will be ok right now. If he gets another hot streak going, perfect time to send him to AA.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.) I just want him to be not two-years at least behind schedule for a player drafted No. 9 overall. The guy is struggling with the bat in high A ball two years after he was drafted out of college. The argument that "Well, the only thing he doesn't do well is hit" is quite humorous to me. It's akin to, "She's really hot, except her face and body."

    Drew Stubbs is not good and it was a huge reach to take him when we did. He will make the Major Leagues eventually but will never be an everyday starter. I have said my peace. Rip away.
    To say he is not good is quite the reach as well...

  9. #83
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No one hits in the FSL outside of Jay Bruce is the point I was trying to make. Go back and look at the history of the league.... guys just don't hit there. Good players, very good players.... don't hit there.

    Ryan Braun - Age 22 - hit .273/.342/.436 in the FSL.

    Ryan Howard - Age 23 - hit .304/.374/.514

    Chase Utley - Age 22 - hit .257/.324/.422

    Russell Martin - Age 21 - hit .250/.366/.421

    Chris Duncan - Age 22 - hit .254/.322/.315

    Alex Rios - Age 21 - hit .304/.344/.408

    Guys generally don't excel in the FSL, they survive it and thrive when they leave it. The ones that excel in the FSL are rare cases.

    Drew Stubbs is fine. .270/.370/.405 in the FSL is a line that certainly is not an issue. He has struck out 55 times in 216 times to the plate. Not impressive or anything, thats 25.7% of the time. Everyones favorite, Todd Frazier currently has 21 strikeouts in 85 times to the plate, or 24.7%. Yeah, there is an age difference there of course, but still, no one is making much fuss about it right now. I think that people really underestimate just how difficult the FSL is on hitters when they look at Stubbs line and think he is struggling.
    You keep leaving out these guys' Low A numbers. They have a history of hitting prior to High A that Stubbs does not have. You are applying a scenario without all the facts. Do hitters struggle in the FSL? generally, yes. Does that mean they'll succeed at AA? uh, no. The guys you listed, sure, but Stubbs? with very little record of being able to hit? That's still to be determined. I'm not worried about his OBP, I'm concerned about his ability to put bat on ball, as it's certain he won't be a power hitter.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #84
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    You keep leaving out these guys' Low A numbers. They have a history of hitting prior to High A that Stubbs does not have. You are applying a scenario without all the facts. Do hitters struggle in the FSL? generally, yes. Does that mean they'll succeed at AA? uh, no. The guys you listed, sure, but Stubbs? with very little record of being able to hit? That's still to be determined. I'm not worried about his OBP, I'm concerned about his ability to put bat on ball, as it's certain he won't be a power hitter.
    And you keep ignoring the fact that Stubbs is not doing what these guys did and completely bomb in High A like most of them did compared to their low A stats. Guys went from .850-.950 OPS in Low A to .770 OPS in the FSL to .900 OPS in AA. Stubbs went from .770 OPS in Low A to a .770 OPS in the FSL, absolutely no fall off, and you seem to think its a terrible thing that unlike others he hasn't fallen off but rather just stayed the same.

    As for a history of hitting.... you pretend like guys in the minor leagues are finished products or something. As if they don't learn anything, they just continue on at the same pace they were at. It doesn't work like that. Drew Stubbs, over the last 35% of his minor league at bats coming into the year had an OPS over .900. That to me, shows signs of improvement. What he is doing this year in the FSL, shows signs of improvement.

    As for him not being a power hitter, I don't think anyone ever thought he would be a power hitter. People made Mike Cameron comparisons, but I think realistically people were expecting 20-25 HR, which for a CFer is strong. I still think he could fall in line with that in a few years given GABP.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    I've been, and continue to be, a Stubbs fan and defender. I'm sticking to my prediction that he ends the year in L'ville. But here's an interesting question: if Wayne had taken Lincecum rather than Stubbs, would he still be the GM? I tend to think the answer is yes.

  12. #86
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And you keep ignoring the fact that Stubbs is not doing what these guys did and completely bomb in High A like most of them did compared to their low A stats. Guys went from .850-.950 OPS in Low A to .770 OPS in the FSL to .900 OPS in AA. Stubbs went from .770 OPS in Low A to a .770 OPS in the FSL, absolutely no fall off, and you seem to think its a terrible thing that unlike others he hasn't fallen off but rather just stayed the same.

    As for a history of hitting.... you pretend like guys in the minor leagues are finished products or something. As if they don't learn anything, they just continue on at the same pace they were at. It doesn't work like that. Drew Stubbs, over the last 35% of his minor league at bats coming into the year had an OPS over .900. That to me, shows signs of improvement. What he is doing this year in the FSL, shows signs of improvement.

    As for him not being a power hitter, I don't think anyone ever thought he would be a power hitter. People made Mike Cameron comparisons, but I think realistically people were expecting 20-25 HR, which for a CFer is strong. I still think he could fall in line with that in a few years given GABP.
    And you are taking two months at High A and equating it to a full season.,which is ridiculous. He COULD continue at a .770 OPS rate, and he could regress. The point is you have anointed him a success when he's far from it. In May he has a .590 OPS. That's awful for any player in any league period. Doug, the guy has had 3 1/2 good months now in his third professional season.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    And you are taking two months at High A and equating it to a full season.,which is ridiculous. He COULD continue at a .770 OPS rate, and he could regress. The point is you have anointed him a success when he's far from it. In May he has a .590 OPS. That's awful for any player in any league period. Doug, the guy has had 3 1/2 good months now in his third professional season.
    His May has been quite an unlucky one. He is boasting a 21% line drive rate in May, the exact same strikeout rate as in April and has a BABIP of .274. If he is going to continue to post that line drive rate, a walk rate of 15% and strikeout 25% of the time, he will put up strong numbers. The first two weeks of May Drew slumped big time.... despite have a line drive rate over 30% for the span, he hit under .175. That is just wrong on many different levels. He has started turning his May around a little bit and things are correcting themselves. Over his last 10 games he is hitting .310 with 11 walks and 6 strikeouts. The one problem is he hasn't had an XBH since May 14th. Still, I am going to continue to say, if he holds steady his LD rate, his walk rate and his strikeout rate, he will OPS over .800 this year in the FSL. It would be very hard not to do that if he keeps up those rates.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    His May has been quite an unlucky one. He is boasting a 21% line drive rate in May, the exact same strikeout rate as in April and has a BABIP of .274. If he is going to continue to post that line drive rate, a walk rate of 15% and strikeout 25% of the time, he will put up strong numbers. The first two weeks of May Drew slumped big time.... despite have a line drive rate over 30% for the span, he hit under .175. That is just wrong on many different levels. He has started turning his May around a little bit and things are correcting themselves. Over his last 10 games he is hitting .310 with 11 walks and 6 strikeouts. The one problem is he hasn't had an XBH since May 14th. Still, I am going to continue to say, if he holds steady his LD rate, his walk rate and his strikeout rate, he will OPS over .800 this year in the FSL. It would be very hard not to do that if he keeps up those rates.
    if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

    He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #89
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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

    He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.
    Well sure, if this or that, but here is whats going on. At a higher, much more difficult level and environment Drew Stubbs has a better walk rate, DOUBLED his line drive rate, stuck with a very similar strikeout rate and put up much better stolen base numbers (probably because the guy can run now).

    His April wasn't really tremendously lucky. He had a 31% line drive rate, that alone would project to a .430 BABIP. Couple that with guys with really good wheels get an additional boost from the few singles they can leg out on infield grounders and he wasn't really all that lucky with his April. Looking at May, he has been unlucky though, given his 21% line drive rate which would alone project a .330 BABIP and couple it with his wheels and it should probably be closer to .350 and its now at .270. Thats 80 points, thats fairly unlucky. Normalize that and he would be hitting .257/.368/.333 in May. Still, nothing to write home about because of the lack of power, but just normalizing his numbers based on what they likely should be and his .599 OPS jumps to .701 and his seasonal line would go to .297/.384/.432. I really think he is going to put up a line similar to that if he continues with his season rates he has going right now, which he has shown through now two months that he is doing a fairly good job of.

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    Re: Reds Minor League System After Bruce

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

    He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.
    Look at Doug's numbers he continues to put...He has stats to back up his thoughts, it is not if...There is potential there and if he makes the jump from A+ to AA and continues hitting the ball the way he is now everything is going to go up and then you will be right back on the bandwagon...There is too much potential, and things that he has done this far, especially considering him playing with his injury all last year to write him off like too many people do...

    I am not saying I wouldn't love to see him hitting .300 and OBP of .400 and OPSing .900, but if he can put up an OPS of around .800 in A+ the common theme is that number will increase in AA and I think that if he could stay consistent, I would love a CF in Cincy with his defense, speed, OBP, and OPSing around .825...That would be just what the doctor ordered with power positions filled in RF, LF, 1B, 3B(EE or Frazier)...


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