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Thread: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

  1. #1
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    Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    His AAA record against lefty pitching is excellent, and tonight the Pirates will start Gorzelanny. In one or two games here's what Reds hitters have done against Gorzelanny:

    Bako 2 for 3 (including a triple)
    Hairston 1 for 3 (includina a HR)
    Ross 2 for 3
    Freel 2 for 6
    Griffey 2 for 7
    Encarnacion 2 for 9
    Phillips 1 for 8
    Dunn 0 for 2
    Valentin 0 for 2

    To get Bruce and the maxinum number of RHH to surround him in the lineup against Gorzelanny:

    1B-VALENTIN
    2B-PHILLIPS
    SS-JANISH
    3B-ENCARNACION
    OF-FREEL
    OF-HAIRSTON
    OF-BRUCE
    C-ROSS

    That leaves the bench with only LHH, but a lot of power potential in Votto, Dunn, and Griffey.

    It also gets virtually 3 centerfielders into the outfield.

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  3. #2
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    He should play against everyone.

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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Jay Bruce vs. lefties in Louisville in 2008:
    .389/.386/.685 for an OPS of 1.071 in 55 plate appearances.

    Corey Patterson vs. lefties in 2008:
    .160/.192/.160 for an OPS of .352 in 26 plate appearances.

    Ryan Freel vs. lefties in 2008:
    .362/.413/.466 for an OPS of .879 in 62 plate appearances.

    Maybe Ken Griffey Jr. should get some off days vs. lefties:
    .179/.281/.286 for an OPS of .567 in 63 plate appearances.
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    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Valentin should never play against LHP; they eat him alive.

    Career - .220/.296/.296/.592

    Pitcher-like.

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    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Bruce probably hits lefties better than some of the righties on this team.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    I wish I could find the post where I had all the current Reds platoon splits.

    Basically, Adam Dunn is the Reds 2nd or 3rd best hitter versus lefties, with an .843 OPS against lefties in his career. Junior is at .852, but is clearly not what he once was.

    The idea that Dunn, in particular, should be sat against a lefty in favor of Hairston (.684) or Freel (.742) is really quite laughable. Now, if Dunn is in need of a day off, better against a lefty than a righty I suppose. But make no mistake, taking Dunn out of the lineup makes for a worse lineup, regardless of the opposing pitcher.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Valentin should never play against LHP; they eat him alive.

    Career - .220/.296/.296/.592

    Pitcher-like.
    Love these "never" posts.

    The Reds have a problem. Of their five best hitters, four are lefty (only Phillips is righty.) Of their typical eight starters, five are lefties. Bruce, Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Bako.

    So, the opposition likes to pitch lefties against the Reds. They now will face lefty starters in their next three games.

    Starting five lefty hitters against the lefty starters can be debated. My answer is absolutely no way.

    Who should sit against lefty starters?

    Bako for sure.

    Griffey, who hasn't hit lefties well this year and could use the rest.

    Those should be the main sitters.

    Occasionally Votto, Dunn and Bruce should sit one out againt lefties. But not usually.

    But the more obvious point is that the Reds are in serious need of another major right bat. An outfielder, a catcher, or a third basman would seem most logical.

  9. #8
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Love these "never" posts.

    The Reds have a problem. Of their five best hitters, four are lefty (only Phillips is righty.) Of their typical eight starters, five are lefties. Bruce, Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Bako.

    So, the opposition likes to pitch lefties against the Reds. They now will face lefty starters in their next three games.

    Starting five lefty hitters against the lefty starters can be debated. My answer is absolutely no way.

    Who should sit against lefty starters?

    Bako for sure.

    Griffey, who hasn't hit lefties well this year and could use the rest.

    Those should be the main sitters.

    Occasionally Votto, Dunn and Bruce should sit one out againt lefties. But not usually.
    Alright, fine. So long as no one is injured or needs (and I stress "needs") a day off, Valentin should never play against lefties. Better? The man hits like a pitcher against LHP. Ross can catch against lefties (career .240/.315/.488/.804 against LHP) and Votto's young enough that he doesn't need all that many days off and once Keppinger returns from the DL he can play 1B on Votto's days off.

    So knowing that Ross can catch and Votto needs few days off, why would you put Valentin in the lineup against a left handed starter, especially once Keppinger is healthy again?

  10. #9
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I wish I could find the post where I had all the current Reds platoon splits.

    Basically, Adam Dunn is the Reds 2nd or 3rd best hitter versus lefties, with an .843 OPS against lefties in his career. Junior is at .852, but is clearly not what he once was.

    The idea that Dunn, in particular, should be sat against a lefty in favor of Hairston (.684) or Freel (.742) is really quite laughable. Now, if Dunn is in need of a day off, better against a lefty than a righty I suppose. But make no mistake, taking Dunn out of the lineup makes for a worse lineup, regardless of the opposing pitcher.
    I think this is one of the most overused statistic in baseball. Look I know there are some lefty pitchers that dominate left handed hitters. With the exception of a Randy Johnson in his prime there are very few LHP that I would sit a regular for. IMO when you start to over analyze the LHP RHP matchups you end up out thinking yourself and end up benching the better hitter.

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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Alright, fine. So long as no one is injured or needs (and I stress "needs") a day off, Valentin should never play against lefties. Better? The man hits like a pitcher against LHP. Ross can catch against lefties (career .240/.315/.488/.804 against LHP) and Votto's young enough that he doesn't need all that many days off and once Keppinger returns from the DL he can play 1B on Votto's days off.

    So knowing that Ross can catch and Votto needs few days off, why would you put Valentin in the lineup against a left handed starter, especially once Keppinger is healthy again?
    I would only use Valentin very occasionally to spell Votto. I happen to think he is a little better than advertised right handed. Hasn't really hit that much righty and with more ABs would be better. But he's obviously best suited as a lefty hitter off the bench.

    But overall the team needs righty hitting.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I would only use Valentin very occasionally to spell Votto. I happen to think he is a little better than advertised right handed. Hasn't really hit that much righty and with more ABs would be better. But he's obviously best suited as a lefty hitter off the bench.

    But overall the team needs righty hitting.
    I think Valentin will spell Votto until Keppy comes back. I think when Keppy comes back they will move him all over the field to keep his bat in the lineup.

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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Dusty told Marty that he was up here to play and that he would do so. He said that he might rest him very occasionally against especially tough lefties.

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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But overall the team needs righty hitting.
    The Reds are fifth in the NL versus LH Pitching with a team OPS of .818 (.280 BA/.367 OBP/.451 SLG). Versus RHP, the team's OPS is nearly 100 points lower (.719- NL Rank: 8th) with a line of .250 BA/.316 OBP/.402 SLG.

    To put that in perspective, if the team hit righties as well as they hit southpaws, they'd have the best offense in the National League. The idea that they can't hit LHP is a myth.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    I don't think even Dusty's crazy enough to bench Bruce for Patterson against a lefty.
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    Re: Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?

    Around this time last season, maybe a bit later, some Red Sox fans got in a snit about how poorly the Sox were hitting against LHPs, even though they have a pretty RHH-heavy offense. Then someone got the good idea of looking at the list of LH starters they'd faced to that point in the season, and it was almost like a list naming the best LHPs in baseball. Kazmir 3 times, Bedard twice, Pettitte twice, Sabathia, Santana, even Randy Johnson before he got hurt again, etc., plus a few legit top LH pitching prospects. Pretty funny how easily that "snit" went away. Ponit is, if you're facing the top lefties in the game all the time, you're not going to hit LHPs very well. If you're facing a lot of mediocre lefties, you probably will.
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