Jocketty: Budget to increase and other nuggets of info

[edabbs44]

The Reds' budget will be "better" than last year's $72 million, general manager Walt Jocketty told CBSSports.com on Wednesday, but because of the team's large number of arbitration-eligible players, he's unsure how much money he has to spend.

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cb...97882/25647304

Walt also mentions that one of his goals is to find a leadoff man, that Chapman will start off in Cincy next year, that he is very comfy about going to battle with Janish at SS and that he has already spoken to Cairo's agent about bringing Miggy back for an encore.

Good stuff.

[Redsfan320]

yes indeed. Good stuff to hear, all of it. Thanks for posting, ed.

320

[Unassisted]

So "more" is "better" now? This is earth-shattering! IIRC, O'Brien and Krivsky had to spend most of their tenures as GM trying to convince us fans that having more money to spend on salaries wasn't necessarily better.

because of the team's large number of arbitration-eligible players, he's unsure how much money he has to spend.

I would hope that even if Walt knew down to the penny how much he had to spend that he wouldn't spill it to a reporter. That would be a good way to get fleeced in negotiations for FAs!

[redsfandan]

Good to hear. Hopefully Walt will be able to make a splash in the pool of good free agents available.

[Griffey012]

So "more" is "better" now? This is earth-shattering! IIRC, O'Brien and Krivsky had to spend most of their tenures as GM trying to convince us fans that having more money to spend on salaries wasn't necessarily better.

I would hope that even if Walt knew down to the penny how much he had to spend that he wouldn't spill it to a reporter. That would be a good way to get fleeced in negotiations for FAs!

That's cause we have talent now. Back then there is no point in spending a ton of money to bring in a good player who is surrounded by poo poo. The difference between 5th place and 4th place means nothing. The difference between 1st and 2nd means everything.

I like the move to bring back Cairo. He's definitely a useful guys at the end of the bench.

[traderumor]

http://mlb-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cb...97882/25647304

Walt also mentions that one of his goals is to find a leadoff man, that Chapman will start off in Cincy next year, that he is very comfy about going to battle with Janish at SS and that he has already spoken to Cairo's agent about bringing Miggy back for an encore.

Good stuff.

So far his kryptonite. You could have cut and pasted that quote from last offseason and he ended up going with what he had and making Dusty figure it out.

[edabbs44]

So far his kryptonite. You could have cut and pasted that quote from last offseason and he ended up going with what he had and making Dusty figure it out.

If it's not there, it's not there.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Does this increase the chance of young guys getting LTC's or hurt the chances of?

[Johnny Footstool]

Does this increase the chance of young guys getting LTC's or hurt the chances of?

I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.

[redsfandan]

I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.

Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto but no Votto?

[RedsManRick]

I thought it would be interesting to see just how common the kind of guy we're looking for is. So I searched BP's index for the following:

For single seasons, From 2000 to 2010, Played 50% of games at SS, LF, CF or RF, requiring
- OBP >=.350 (can get on base)
- SB>=30 (can run)
- Runs_fielding >=0 (doesn't suck in the field)
- Qualified for league batting title (stayed healthy)

In that 11 year stretch, it found 40 such seasons from 23 players. Are these arbitrary standards? Absolutely. I'm sure we could remove any one of those criteria and find many more seasons. But that's sort of the point. We're tying to find a player who fits a set of criteria which makes him a better candidate for leadoff than what we already have. It's harder to find than you might think.

And if you're willing to compromise on those things, I would ask why we're pursuing somebody to begin with. Will a fast guy who can't find 1B make our offense better? Will a good hitter who kills us in the field be a net positive contributor? I'd be happy to give up the SB, but I don't think our old-school management team would be.

I think the Reds already have their 2011 leadoff man. His name is Drew Stubbs. Sure, the OBP is lower than ideal, but it's a huge upgrade over 2010. Leadoff is one spot where batting average really means the least (assuming equal OBP) since you have the fewest base runners to advance via balls in play. Batting leadoff actually minimizes the cost of his strikeouts and having him on base will certainly result in some more fastballs for the #2 batter (Phillips I presume). Short of that, Ryan Hanigan is probably the best choice given his OBP -- it worked pretty well for the Rays last year with their version of Hanigan (John Jaso).

I'd love to find an upgrade in LF (Nick Markakis being my favorite target de jour), but short of that, I think the lineup that makes the most sense given the realities of our manager is this:

Stubbs
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes/Nix/Heisey
Hanigan
Janish

Player		Year	OBP	BA	SLG	OPS	SB	CS	FldRuns	Pos
Ichiro Suzuki	2010	.359	.315	.394	.754	42	9	10	*9/D
Brett Gardner	2010	.383	.277	.379	.762	47	9	14	*78/D
Carl Crawford	2010	.356	.307	.495	.851	47	10	1	*7/D
Scott Podsednik	2009	.353	.304	.412	.764	30	13	10	*78D/9
Matt Kemp	2009	.352	.297	.490	.842	34	8	5	*8/9
Derek Jeter	2009	.406	.334	.465	.871	30	5	4	*6/D
Carl Crawford	2009	.364	.305	.452	.816	60	16	12	*7/D
Hanley Ramirez	2008	.400	.301	.540	.940	35	12	3	*6/D
Jose Reyes	2008	.358	.297	.475	.833	56	15	2	*6
Ichiro Suzuki	2008	.361	.310	.386	.747	43	4	15	*98/D
B.J. Upton	2008	.383	.273	.401	.784	44	16	15	*8/D
Shane Victorino	2008	.352	.293	.447	.799	36	11	7	*8/9
Eric Byrnes	2007	.353	.286	.460	.813	50	7	20	*798
Jose Reyes	2007	.354	.280	.421	.775	78	21	14	*6
Grady Sizemore	2007	.390	.277	.462	.852	33	10	6	*8/D
Ichiro Suzuki	2007	.396	.351	.431	.827	37	8	3	*8/D
Ichiro Suzuki	2006	.370	.322	.416	.786	45	2	10	*98/D
Alfonso Soriano	2006	.351	.277	.560	.911	41	17	16	*7
Dave Roberts	2006	.360	.293	.393	.752	49	6	13	*78
Jose Reyes	2006	.354	.300	.487	.841	64	17	8	*6
Hanley Ramirez	2006	.353	.292	.480	.833	51	15	1	*6
Ichiro Suzuki	2005	.350	.303	.436	.786	33	8	16	*9/D
Scott Podsednik	2005	.351	.290	.349	.700	59	23	5	*7/8
Bobby Abreu	2005	.405	.286	.474	.879	31	9	2	*9/D
Ichiro Suzuki	2004	.414	.372	.455	.869	36	11	27	*9/D
Carlos Beltran	2003	.389	.307	.522	.911	41	4	15	*8/D
Scott Podsednik	2003	.379	.314	.443	.822	43	10	21	*89/7
Edgar Renteria	2003	.394	.330	.480	.874	34	7	3	*6
Ichiro Suzuki	2003	.352	.312	.436	.788	34	8	23	*9
Bobby Abreu	2002	.413	.308	.521	.934	31	12	2	*98
Johnny Damon	2002	.356	.286	.443	.799	31	6	3	*8/D
Vlad Guerrero	2002	.417	.336	.593	1.010	40	20	4	*9
Ichiro Suzuki	2001	.381	.350	.457	.838	56	14	15	*9/D
Juan Pierre	2001	.378	.327	.415	.793	46	17	4	*8
Vlad Guerrero	2001	.377	.307	.566	.943	37	16	7	*9
Mike Cameron	2001	.353	.267	.480	.832	34	5	11	*8/D
Carlos Beltran	2001	.362	.306	.514	.876	31	1	5	*8/D
Bobby Abreu	2001	.393	.289	.543	.936	36	14	1	*9
Kenny Lofton	2000	.369	.278	.422	.791	30	7	4	*8/D
Rafael Furcal	2000	.394	.295	.382	.776	40	14	6	*64

Those 40 seasons come from just 23 players. And just 7 players did it more than once.

Ichiro Suzuki	8
Bobby Abreu	3
Jose Reyes	3
Scott Podsednik	3
Carl Crawford	2
Carlos Beltran	2
Hanley Ramirez	2
Alfonso Soriano	1
B.J. Upton	1
Brett Gardner	1
Dave Roberts	1
Derek Jeter	1
Edgar Renteria	1
Eric Byrnes	1
Grady Sizemore	1
Johnny Damon	1
Juan Pierre	1
Kenny Lofton	1
Matt Kemp	1
Mike Cameron	1
Rafael Furcal	1
Shane Victorino	1
Vlad Guerrero	1

[bucksfan2]

Interesting analysis Rick. I would eliminate the SB target of 30. I think a guy with Brandon Phillips type speed would be fine enough in the lead off spot and he is a 20+ type SB guy/year.

[Homer Bailey]

Interesting analysis Rick. I would eliminate the SB target of 30. I think a guy with Brandon Phillips type speed would be fine enough in the lead off spot and he is a 20+ type SB guy/year.

Brandon Phillips doesn't really have speed, IMO.

[WMR]

I'd hope that guys like Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto would get offered LTCs as soon as possible. I'm fine with the Reds going to arbitration with everyone else.

LTC for Volquez? No thank you. He's got quite a bit of showing to do, IMO, before he's worthy of a long term deal.

[redsfandan]

Those 40 seasons come from just 23 players. And just 7 players did it more than once.

Ichiro Suzuki	8
Bobby Abreu	3
Jose Reyes	3
Scott Podsednik	3
Carl Crawford	2
Carlos Beltran	2
Hanley Ramirez	2
Alfonso Soriano	1
B.J. Upton	1
Brett Gardner	1
Dave Roberts	1
Derek Jeter	1
Edgar Renteria	1
Eric Byrnes	1
Grady Sizemore	1
Johnny Damon	1
Juan Pierre	1
Kenny Lofton	1
Matt Kemp	1
Mike Cameron	1
Rafael Furcal	1
Shane Victorino	1
Vlad Guerrero	1

No Michael Bourn? I would've thought his '09 season would've put him on the list.