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Thread: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

  1. #211
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?
    Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
    Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
    Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
    Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
    David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

    That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

    If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

    Aaron Harang
    Edinson Volquez
    Bronson Arroyo
    Johnny Cueto
    Francisco Cordero
    Jared Burton
    Bill Bray

    Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.

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  3. #212
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To put it bluntly, if Jay Bruce doesn't start at least 25 games per month, the Reds need to fire Dusty Baker.
    If it comes down to Walt vs. Dusty, Dusty will lose every time.

    But I don't think it will come to that.

  4. #213
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
    Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
    Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
    Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
    David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

    That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

    If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

    Aaron Harang
    Edinson Volquez
    Bronson Arroyo
    Johnny Cueto
    Francisco Cordero
    Jared Burton
    Bill Bray

    Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
    Good stuff right there.
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  5. #214
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    A lack of groundballs and flyballs?
    Well ...
    Code:
    Ball-in-Play Rates
    
    		Reds		NL
    GB%		43.19%		44.82%
    GB BABIP	.237            .231
    
    FB%             34.52%          36.02%
    FB BABIP        .147            .143
    
    LD%             22.30%          19.16%
    LD BABIP        .740            .720
    If the Reds had league average BIP percentages, then they'd have 42 less line drives allowed. Those 42 line drives would instead be dispersed as ground balls and fly balls. And of those 42 extra line drives, 30-35 of them would be turned into outs if they were ground ball balls or fly balls.

    The BABIP differences between the Reds and the NL in ground balls and fly balls is roughly a half dozen balls over the season so far. That's it, nothing more.

    Everything else is due to a combination of A) a high line drive percentage, and B) more of the Reds' line drives allowed end up as hits than the NL average. Defense cannot at all be blamed for the former, and it only has a small share of the responsibility for the latter (approximately a half dozen balls here).

    Really, put it together and the Reds defense is only 12 balls behind the NL average once you account for the types of hits that the pitching staff is allowing.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  6. #215
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
    Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
    Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
    Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
    David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

    That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

    If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

    Aaron Harang
    Edinson Volquez
    Bronson Arroyo
    Johnny Cueto
    Francisco Cordero
    Jared Burton
    Bill Bray

    Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
    This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

    Depth.

  7. #216
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

    Depth.
    It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.

  8. #217
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

    Depth.
    But those three are part of the future, so why would he remove them? If any of the top 5 of that list are on the Reds next year I'll be surprised.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  9. #218
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.
    There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.

  10. #219
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Guys fill out. They become stronger. 22 is young.
    I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    And I never predicted failure for Volquez. Not once.
    This is puzzling then:
    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I would absolutely not throw out Fogg just yet. Not with Volquez's volatility. He's very likely to be out of the rotation by the middle of May with his control problems. There's just no stability in this rotation; need as many warm bodies as possible.
    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Captain, I have plenty of credibility. Consistently. Your shifting mirages, parries and dodges in arguments have been your hallmark. You assert something, retract it, try to argue that you never said it.
    Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #220
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    14 out 15 in the NL in pitching.

    This season is beyond lost.
    The Reds still have 111 games left.

  12. #221
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Well let me ask you this:

    What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?

    It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.
    The defense certainly can't be blamed for a high line drive rate.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #222
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....



    This is puzzling then:




    Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.
    So how does my arguing that Volquez would be on a short leash due to his storied control problems make me pessimistic? It's pretty clear that I was arguing worst-case scenario for him, not career-ending failure.

  14. #223
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.
    Well, yeah. The success/failure of Fogg/Mercker/Affeldt/Lincoln isn't one of them. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

  15. #224
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:
    This seems like a very reasonable approach.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #225
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce called up!!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'll see, but it will be Jocketty's revamping that gets it done, if it indeed gets done. (Cueto's at least two or three years from really contributing, if ever).
    Whoa. Already giving up on Johnny Cueto after a few rough starts. The only downside to calling up Jay Bruce is how some fans will react when he goes through his first slump.


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