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Thread: Drew Stubbs....

  1. #31
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    At Stubbs' age, Mike Cameron was busting out with a 1.004 OPS in AA.

    Another thing to remember about Cameron is he's played the bulk of his career in three of the best pitching parks in baseball. He has a career .812 road OPS. Had he played his career in Cincinnati you've got to figure the .826 OPS mark he put up in 1999 would have been his norm.

    Based on the above, I reject the notion that we've seen anything Cameronesque from Stubbs to date.

    What Stubbs needs to do is play better (something Devin Mesoraco has been doing of late). No one digs into you LD% and then ponders whether you're a soft liner specialist if you're putting up the kind of numbers a top prospect should put up. If Stubbs plays better then we take comfort in the notion that the Reds should have a semi-productive CF on their hands in another two years. If he doesn't then he's probably going to hit his ceiling in the high minors.
    I wasn't comparing Cameron to Stubbs at a certain point of their minor league levels. I was responding to the notion that a top 10 pick should OPS .850+ to justify the pick.

    My point was that I'd rather have a guy OPS .770-.790 that's playing a defensive-oriented position and playing it well, over some corner outfielder hitting .850.

    That's not to say Stubbs will hit .770-.790. I hope he does, but his ceiling may be more long the lines of .750-ish.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Stubbs is hitting just .245 against Righties in A+ and OPSing .737? Is he really going to be ready for AA in July?

    Brandon Phillips would kill for those numbers against RHP.

  4. #33
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I wasn't comparing Cameron to Stubbs at a certain point of their minor league levels. I was responding to the notion that a top 10 pick should OPS .850+ to justify the pick.

    My point was that I'd rather have a guy OPS .770-.790 that's playing a defensive-oriented position and playing it well, over some corner outfielder hitting .850.

    That's not to say Stubbs will hit .770-.790. I hope he does, but his ceiling may be more long the lines of .750-ish.
    I agree with the basic premise, but that .770-.790 OPS guy in the majors normally hit a lot better than that in the minors. Also, Cameron would have been in the .825-.850 range fairly often had he not played in primo pitching parks.

    Those are two important things to keep in mind when contemplating what Stubbs could be. He needs to be a lot better fairly soon in order to have a chance at that sort of career in the majors and the guy we keep looking to as the example of what Stubbs could be actually hit a lot better than his raw stats would indicate (if you neutralize his stats for 750 runs a season, he gets an .825+ OPS in eight different seasons with an .817 career mark).
    Last edited by M2; 06-05-2008 at 11:22 AM.
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  5. #34
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    For some reason, I see Stubbs as the kind of hitter where his numbers will stay the same or grow as he advances. He was .768 in Billings (2006), .785 last year in Dayton, and he's .783 currently in the pitcher-friendly FSL. If I had to make a prediction, I would bet he'll go .780-.800 in Chattanooga. The real question is will he be able to make the transition to AAA and ML pitching. I don't think it's set in stone that if you dominate in A and AA that you will in the majors. By the same token, I don't think true talent is always going to struggle or hover around the league average. Some may get better as they advance and some hit their peak in A or AA.

    Jeff Keppinger had a career minor league OPS of .792 and all we've heard about this guy is how he's always hit. In fact, he is an example of a guy raising his OPS at almost every level.

    Obviously Keppinger (4th round, PIT) wasn't a top 10 pick, so he was under less a of a microscope and it's human nature that he's going to get more leeway than the top 10 pick. I just think it's interesting how he's considered by many Reds fans to be the team MVP and such a great hitter and the guy has a career .792 minor league OPS and is at .809 so far in the bigs.

  6. #35
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    For some reason, I see Stubbs as the kind of hitter where his numbers will stay the same or grow as he advances. He was .768 in Billings (2006), .785 last year in Dayton, and he's .783 currently in the pitcher-friendly FSL. If I had to make a prediction, I would bet he'll go .780-.800 in Chattanooga. The real question is will he be able to make the transition to AAA and ML pitching. I don't think it's set in stone that if you dominate in A and AA that you will in the majors. By the same token, I don't think true talent is always going to struggle or hover around the league average. Some may get better as they advance and some hit their peak in A or AA.
    Nothing's set in stone, but what you "see" him as being is a rarity. FWIW, I think the possibility of him producing the sort of numbers you projected in AA is reason enough to promote him.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #36
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Nothing's set in stone, but what you "see" him as being is a rarity. FWIW, I think the possibility of him producing the sort of numbers you projected in AA is reason enough to promote him.
    I agree. I see no reason to wait, especially with Szymanski heading to Louisville. The reason I call it "heading to" and not "promoted to" for Szymanski, is because I don't think it was necessarily a promotion for him.

    It's time for Stubbs to make a move.

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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    I've heard a rumor that Stubbs may get moved up to Chatty this weekend...Anyone else heard this????

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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by bowles8 View Post
    I've heard a rumor that Stubbs may get moved up to Chatty this weekend...Anyone else heard this????
    I hope so...Then we will we will be able to get a very good read on what to expect from Stubbs, since he will have half a year at Chattanooga...

  10. #39
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by bowles8 View Post
    I've heard a rumor that Stubbs may get moved up to Chatty this weekend...Anyone else heard this????
    Haven't heard it, but hope its true.

  11. #40
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Haven't heard it, but hope its true.
    I don't think his play has warranted it, but I agree. The Reds need to see if Stubbs is a real option at CF or if he's a 4th OF type. I hope he's Mike Cameron, I fear he's Corey Patterson (hitting issues. yes Stubbs can take a walk which CPatt can't do).
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #41
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I don't think his play has warranted it, but I agree. The Reds need to see if Stubbs is a real option at CF or if he's a 4th OF type. I hope he's Mike Cameron, I fear he's Corey Patterson (hitting issues. yes Stubbs can take a walk which CPatt can't do).
    So far different from Patterson...He will take a pitch...Will work the count...Could help him as he moves up the ladder it he can ever get his contact issues down just a little...Also Stubbs has a much bigger arm than Patterson...I think my girlfriend can throw harder than him...

    His play has warranted it due to the league...Not great, but enough to move him up due to his age, and I feel his understanding of the strikezone and his defense isn't going to behind...His numbers haven't been that bad...He could easily be OPS 800+ as Doug has pointed out...

    Also we haven't had the oppurtunity to see him live, and what is to say that he isn't getting robbed on a couple of these linedrives, which make the numbers not all that goes into a promotion...

    Just look at Votto as of late...His numbers have dipped a little, but he is hitting the ball as hard as anyone on the team right now...

  13. #42
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by crazyredfan40 View Post
    So far different from Patterson...He will take a pitch...Will work the count...Could help him as he moves up the ladder it he can ever get his contact issues down just a little...Also Stubbs has a much bigger arm than Patterson...I think my girlfriend can throw harder than him...

    His play has warranted it due to the league...Not great, but enough to move him up due to his age, and I feel his understanding of the strikezone and his defense isn't going to behind...His numbers haven't been that bad...He could easily be OPS 800+ as Doug has pointed out...

    Also we haven't had the oppurtunity to see him live, and what is to say that he isn't getting robbed on a couple of these linedrives, which make the numbers not all that goes into a promotion...

    Just look at Votto as of late...His numbers have dipped a little, but he is hitting the ball as hard as anyone on the team right now...
    I mentioned Stubbs can take a walk. was pointing out the contact issues. Both have them big time. And no, he can't easily OPS .800+ because he never has done that.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #43
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I mentioned Stubbs can take a walk. was pointing out the contact issues. Both have them big time. And no, he can't easily OPS .800+ because he never has done that.
    The point was that if things were normalized to his balls in play numbers, he would easily have an .800 OPS right now in the FSL, which he would.

  15. #44
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The point was that if things were normalized to his balls in play numbers, he would easily have an .800 OPS right now in the FSL, which he would.
    Not all line drives were created equal. Guys who really sting the ball (e.g. Eric Davis) rarely encounter the sort of problem Stubbs is having at the moment. I haven't seen Stubbs this year so I can't say one way or the other, but the FIRST thing that goes through my mind when I see the sort of numbers you seem to be hanging on (regardless of who those numbers are attached to) is that the player in question might not be making effective contact. Stubbs' HR totals reinforce that notion. He's a strapping guy and he's only got 2 HR.

    So that BIP info might be telling us Stubbs doesn't square up the ball on the bat, not that he's unlucky.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #45
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Not all line drives were created equal. Guys who really sting the ball (e.g. Eric Davis) rarely encounter the sort of problem Stubbs is having at the moment. I haven't seen Stubbs this year so I can't say one way or the other, but the FIRST thing that goes through my mind when I see the sort of numbers you seem to be hanging on (regardless of who those numbers are attached to) is that the player in question might not be making effective contact. Stubbs' HR totals reinforce that notion. He's a strapping guy and he's only got 2 HR.

    So that BIP info might be telling us Stubbs doesn't square up the ball on the bat, not that he's unlucky.
    While they aren't all created equally, his line drive rate is awfully high if he isn't squaring it up. Stubbs HR total tells me he is in the FSL. While I don't think the guy is going to be lighting up the HR charts, I think he would probably have 3 times as many HR if he were in Chattanooga where the balls seems to travel just a little bit more. We will find out soon enough though, as I don't think its going to be much longer until Stubbs finds his way to Chattanooga. There are several guys down there I have contact with that see about 90% of the home games who can tell us how he is doing outside of the box score.


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