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Thread: Drew Stubbs....

  1. #166
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It's not damaging Francisco. three years younger and has a .866 OPS at home.

    I think it's because he's SLG .538.
    Francisco is a different kind of beast. He has power that is going to play anywhere. My bet is if he were in the Cal League as opposed to the FSL, he would be slugging well over .600 right now.

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  3. #167
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    You could have stopped at "He has power..."

    Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

    Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

    Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #168
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    You could have stopped at "He has power..."

    Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

    Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

    Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.
    I'm curious what the correlation is between LD% and various contact measures. It seems odd to me that a guy would have trouble making contact, but that he would square the ball up well when he does. I would think that those are borne of the same basic hand-eye skill.

    We appear to be conflating the issues of contact ability and power. To Doug's point however, line drives tend to result in a higher SLG% than any other type of batted ball.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-19-2008 at 05:46 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #169
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    I think the problem is with the stat itself. the definition of a line drive does not include the force or speed of the ball after it is hit, but rather the plane only.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #170
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    All I am saying is that his slugging right now is likely a whole lot stronger in every other league in the minors than it appears in the FSL. I don't think he will ever slug .500, but I don't think .450 is out of the question in his prime either, especially given GABP. Its also interesting to note that once he gets out of Sarasota he has a .900 OPS on the year and a .308/.430/.470 line. He isn't tearing the ball up with that .470 slugging, but the ballpark certainly is doing its share of damage.
    I gave you his comps in the SL, they aren't very compelling.

    He certainly is struggling at home this season, the only problem is that's one of the better hitting parks in the league. Meanwhile Francisco is thriving in Sarasota and struggling on the road. Heisey's even-steven. My suggestion in such cases is go with the largest set of numbers and avoid reading too many tea leaves.

    As for .450 in the future. Sure, it could happen. So could .350. The larger question is whether the chances of him reaching .450 in the majors (which would probably necessitate .500 in AA or AAA) are good enough to hold onto him if he can fetch you something you like in trade right now.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #171
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I gave you his comps in the SL, they aren't very compelling.
    Except that there is nothing to make those comps with other than they are the 30th in the SL in slugging. Thats not a very good comparison to me.

  8. #172
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except that there is nothing to make those comps with other than they are the 30th in the SL in slugging. Thats not a very good comparison to me.
    30th is as 30th does. It's not very exciting stuff. If you want to argue that Stubbs is suffering some major FSL SLG discount, then there's 29 guys ahead of him (not counting a whole heap of non-qualifiers on top of that). If there's a forklift, Stubbs isn't the only guy who'd be getting a ride. Stubbs is not relatively strong compared to his peers in the league and others in his relative position in other leagues aren't having particularly good seasons either.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #173
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    I think M2 hit a nail on the head with the term relative to his peers. What us his slg rate relative to league average? We should be viewing his stats compared to league averages this year. Then take into account age relative to league.

    I'm in the camp that thinks its way to early to draw a conclusion as to what we have in stubbs, but I think we're glossing over some telling stuff by going round and round about slg and line drive rates.
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  10. #174
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    doug, he hasn't produced. period. SLG tells the story.
    So now SLG tells us all we need to know about Stubbs? Classic case of fixating on a player's weakness to all but erase him as a prospect, in my opinion.....

    Beyond the fact that Stubbs will offer the Reds a superior defensive centerfielder -- routinely ignored -- why don't we acknowledge that his speed is an important asset in his offensive game?

    Isn't it about "base acquisition"? Why not look at SLG + SB - CS? With 22 steals and 7 CS, this adds 15 bases to Stubbs' production.

    Per my calculations, this puts Stubbs at .475. Relative to his FSL peers' production using the same formula, this puts him at about 9th in the league.

    Seems a more complete way of looking at how productive a guy is offensively.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #175
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Isn't it about "base acquisition"? Why not look at SLG + SB - CS? With 22 steals and 7 CS, this adds 15 bases to Stubbs' production.
    Well, now you're getting into stolen-base break-even theory. Be careful. :
    Not all who wander are lost

  12. #176
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    His OPS today is at .797.

  13. #177
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Well, now you're getting into stolen-base break-even theory. Be careful.
    Ah yes -- this is true. Never mind.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  14. #178
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    His OPS today is at .797.
    The average OPS for a center fielder in the Major Leagues is usually around .750 or so.

    BUST :

  15. #179
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    You could have stopped at "He has power..."

    Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

    Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

    Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.
    Stubbs produced a Line Drive rate of 13% in 2007 and this season it's 26%. The improvement in LD rate hasn't translated at all to an improvement in IsoP. In fact, it's dropped a few points (.151 to .142). That doesn't reflect anything resembling "raw power" for an A-Ball player who'll be 24 years old in October.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  16. #180
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The average OPS for a center fielder in the Major Leagues is usually around .750 or so.

    BUST :
    Remind me again which league the Sarasota Reds are in? I don't remember them playing the Cubs.

    Yes, he has a .797 OPS right now. That's a great number. However it's being driven by a torrid April. May and June have been beyond bad. .612 for may, .683 (albeit climbing) for June.

    Maybe Stubbs isn't a bust yet, but he's certainly on the bus to bustville.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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