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Thread: Drew Stubbs....

  1. #226
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I don't mind longer from a 5th round HS pick. A 1st rd. college pick has a different set of expectations.
    A different set of expectations according to who? You?

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  3. #227
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Hate to say it, but folks expectations are completely arbitrary. And thats whats lame about the hate on Stubbs. As long as he lives up to the REDS expectations, thats all that matters. Not the fans.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

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  4. #228
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Which has what to do with the anything? Is he getting better should be the only question that matters at this point.
    "Is he getting better?" is a loaded question.

  5. #229
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by cincyinco View Post
    Hate to say it, but folks expectations are completely arbitrary. And thats whats lame about the hate on Stubbs. As long as he lives up to the REDS expectations, thats all that matters. Not the fans.
    If the Reds didn't pick him to be a fairly fast mover through the system and quality offense/defense CF over the long haul, then I'd say the Reds don't matter because they've set their expectations way too low.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  6. #230
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    A different set of expectations according to who? You?
    MLB in general. Name 1 GM with a top ten pick that is looking for a "project" player from the college ranks. I'm not talking about a JuCo pitcher, but a guy that went to a big time four year program and is a position player. Those guys have to help sooner. They cannot be on a HS draftee's timetable.

    Find me that GM, and I'll show you a GM out of a job. wait, that was WK.

    I don't mean to be harsh, as WK won me over in the 2006 off season, but his blunders during the season were pretty big. But NOT getting value in his first pick of his 1st draft is THE biggie. FCB nailed it when he said had he drafted Lincecum he'd still have a job right now.

    By any and almost every definable standard, Stubbs was a poor pick. He's done little since to prove otherwise.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #231
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    By any and almost every definable standard, Stubbs was a poor pick.
    The only standard that matters is what value he offers the major league club, and it is too soon to make that reckoning.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #232
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    What value does he offer right now? He's fetch little in a trade for talent that could help the big league club. His timetable certainly isn't this year or next for that matter. He's likely not going to see any MLB time other than as a sept. callup before 2010. His closest comp is Chris Dickerson, with a little more OBP, and a little less SLG. How much value does Chris Dickerson have for the Reds?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #233
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    What value does he offer right now? He's fetch little in a trade for talent that could help the big league club. His timetable certainly isn't this year or next for that matter. He's likely not going to see any MLB time other than as a sept. callup before 2010. His closest comp is Chris Dickerson, with a little more OBP, and a little less SLG. How much value does Chris Dickerson have for the Reds?
    We don't know how much value he offers the club now. We can suspect/opine, but we don't know how much value he'd have in a trade package, which is the only context in which he'd provide any value.

    As much as folks want to put a final stamp on the pick, it's not fair to do so until we see if he becomes an effective big league regular, in my opinion.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #234
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Here is the entire 2006 1st round draft:

    [edit] First Round Selections
    Pick Player Team Position School
    1 Luke Hochevar Kansas City Royals RHP Fort Worth Cats (American Association)
    2 Greg Reynolds Colorado Rockies RHP Stanford University
    3 Evan Longoria Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3B Long Beach State University
    4 Brad Lincoln Pittsburgh Pirates RHP University of Houston
    5 Brandon Morrow Seattle Mariners RHP UC Berkeley
    6 Andrew Miller Detroit Tigers LHP University of North Carolina
    7 Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Highland Park High School
    8 Drew Stubbs Cincinnati Reds CF University of Texas
    9 Bill Rowell Baltimore Orioles 3B Bishop Eustace Preparatory School
    10 Tim Lincecum San Francisco Giants RHP University of Washington
    11 Max Scherzer Arizona Diamondbacks RHP University of Missouri
    12 Kasey Kiker Texas Rangers LHP Russell County High School (AL)
    13 Tyler Colvin Chicago Cubs LF Clemson University
    14 Travis Snider Toronto Blue Jays RF Henry M. Jackson High School
    15 Chris Marrero Washington Nationals 3B Monsignor Edward Pace High School
    16 Jeremy Jeffress Milwaukee Brewers RHP Halifax County High School (VA)
    17 Matt Antonelli San Diego Padres 3B Wake Forest University
    18 Kyle Drabek Philadelphia Phillies RHP The Woodlands High School
    19 Brett Sinkbeil Florida Marlins RHP Missouri State University
    20 Chris Parmelee Minnesota Twins RF Chino Hills High School
    21 Ian Kennedy New York Yankees RHP University of Southern California
    22 Colton Willems Washington Nationals RHP John Carroll Catholic High School
    23 Maxwell Sapp Houston Astros C Bishop Moore High School
    24 Cody Johnson Atlanta Braves 1B A. Crawford Mosley High School
    25 Hank Conger Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim C Huntington Beach High School
    26 Bryan Morris Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Motlow State Community College
    27 Jason Place Boston Red Sox CF Wren High School
    28 Daniel Bard Boston Red Sox RHP University of North Carolina
    29 Kyle McCulloch Chicago White Sox RHP University of Texas
    30 Adam Ottavino St. Louis Cardinals RHP Northeastern University
    Without looking up the current levels of all of the 22 picks after Stubbs, how many have made a true impact at the MLB level? Lincecum, certainly. Ian Kennedy, a little. Max Scherzer, a cup of coffee so far.

    So really, other than Lincecum, who at this time looks to be the cream of the crop of those available to the Reds? Who are the other 1st rounders in a similar boat to Stubbs?

    Look at the Cubs pick at #13, Tyler Colvin. He is hitting .227/.300/.340 for an OPS of .640 at AA, and he is also a college playing CF.

    The #9 pick, Billy Rowell, is also in High A, and is hitting .237/.295/.362 for an OPS of .657. He is a 3B drafted out of high school.

    On the other hand, there is Travis Snider, the Blue Jays 14th round pick. He was recently promoted to AA and is hitting .284/.367/.481 for an OPS of .847. He was a high school outfielder when drafted, and is currently 20 years old.

    I see Stubbs as still having decent potential. He is certainly not the best draft pick ever, at least not yet. But lets keep pulling for the boy....
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  11. #235
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Hochevar is in KC's rotation. Longoria is heating up for TB and playing pretty good defense. Brandon Morrow has been a stud this year for Seattle. Andrew Miller is in the Marlins rotation, and has a sub 5.00 ERA, though barely. Kershaw joined the Dodgers rotation about 20 days ago, and has 19K's in 20 ip. He needs to go deeper into games, but he's got remarkable stuff.

    After Stubbs, 11 of the remaining 22 picks in the first round are HS picks. Of those 11 HS picks, average age is about 19 1/2. 4 are at Low A, 6 are at High A and one is at AA.

    4 years younger and 7 HS picks are at the same level as Stubb or higher.

    I'd say that's pretty telling. This isn't even considered a strong draft. None of these HS picks are profiled to be the next Jay Bruce.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #236
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Hochevar is in KC's rotation. Longoria is heating up for TB and playing pretty good defense. Brandon Morrow has been a stud this year for Seattle. Andrew Miller is in the Marlins rotation, and has a sub 5.00 ERA, though barely. Kershaw joined the Dodgers rotation about 20 days ago, and has 19K's in 20 ip. He needs to go deeper into games, but he's got remarkable stuff.
    He said after Stubbs. Those guys all went before Stubbs.

    After Stubbs, 11 of the remaining 22 picks in the first round are HS picks. Of those 11 HS picks, average age is about 19 1/2. 4 are at Low A, 6 are at High A and one is at AA.

    4 years younger and 7 HS picks are at the same level as Stubb or higher.

    I'd say that's pretty telling. This isn't even considered a strong draft. None of these HS picks are profiled to be the next Jay Bruce.
    Travis Snider is going to be a lifetime DH, and is the only guy from the HS ranks ahead of Stubbs. Again, none of which matters where they are now....its what kind of player they will be when they get to the Majors. Its not how fast you get there, its how you play when you do.

  13. #237
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt;
    He said after Stubbs. Those guys all went before Stubbs.
    yeah but he mentioned guys taken before Stubbs and left out a lot of guys contributing and thriving in MLB.
    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Travis Snider is going to be a lifetime DH, and is the only guy from the HS ranks ahead of Stubbs. Again, none of which matters where they are now....its what kind of player they will be when they get to the Majors. Its not how fast you get there, its how you play when you do.
    So if Stubbs makes it ala Ryan Freel, plays his first FULL season at age 28, that's success for a 1st round pick?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #238
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    yeah but he mentioned guys taken before Stubbs and left out a lot of guys contributing and thriving in MLB.


    So if Stubbs makes it ala Ryan Freel, plays his first FULL season at age 28, that's success for a 1st round pick?
    No, but Stubbs is 5 seasons from being 28. If Stubbs pulls a Ryan Howard (in the sense that he gets to the bigs at age 25, not turns into a HR hitter) and is a productive player in the majors at the age of 25 then yeah, its a success for a first round pick.

  15. #239
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, but Stubbs is 5 seasons from being 28. If Stubbs pulls a Ryan Howard (in the sense that he gets to the bigs at age 25, not turns into a HR hitter) and is a productive player in the majors at the age of 25 then yeah, its a success for a first round pick.
    I agree.

    However, Stubbs career to date has been difficult to predict going forward. He's had injury issue (not chronic issues) that have hampered his development. He had a radical 1st two healthy months in the FSL. His K rate flat stinks for a guy without power, and yes, he's devoid of power. His 4 triples have certainly been the result of his speed much more than they are of his power.

    Stubbs could be the player you think he is, though you do seemed to have backed down from the .900+ OPS beast you predicted he might be back in early 2007. He might be a 4th OF too.

    I see the glass as half full as there were better players on the board, ok specifically Lincecum. Having Lincecum means Hamilton is likely not traded for Volquez, but it means an OF of Bruce/Hamilton/Dunn.

    One player. what a difference one player can make.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #240
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I agree.

    However, Stubbs career to date has been difficult to predict going forward. He's had injury issue (not chronic issues) that have hampered his development. He had a radical 1st two healthy months in the FSL. His K rate flat stinks for a guy without power, and yes, he's devoid of power. His 4 triples have certainly been the result of his speed much more than they are of his power.

    Stubbs could be the player you think he is, though you do seemed to have backed down from the .900+ OPS beast you predicted he might be back in early 2007. He might be a 4th OF too.

    I see the glass as half full as there were better players on the board, ok specifically Lincecum. Having Lincecum means Hamilton is likely not traded for Volquez, but it means an OF of Bruce/Hamilton/Dunn.

    One player. what a difference one player can make.
    I would rather have Volquez than Lincecum every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Sure, we could have this guy or that guy.... but we don't. I just don't get why it is still being harped on over 2 years later. We could have Derek Jeter, but we don't. We could have Albert Pujols, but we don't. We could have a whole lot of guys, but we don't. That goes for every team in the major leagues. Its been quite an old act for a while now. Let Drew Stubbs be who he is going to be, not let Drew Stubbs not be Tim Lincecum.


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