Turn Off Ads?
Page 21 of 26 FirstFirst ... 11171819202122232425 ... LastLast
Results 301 to 315 of 377

Thread: Drew Stubbs....

  1. #301
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,159

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Right, because hitting a ton of line drives, walking more and striking out less doesn't lead to better production in the long run.
    Not necessarily. In fact, as a proof point I'll submit Drew Stubbs. Those things are currently resulting in bupkus for him.

    You're just assuming that will net better things in the future because it's a pleasant convenience, just like choking up was the secret sauce for Stubbs last year.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #302
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Now just wait a cotton-pickin' second here. Are you actually going to try to argue at this point that you prefer the Stubbs with a 23% LD rate to the Stubbs with a 33% LD rate? This after raving about the importance of his LD rate for page after page in this thread?
    If it comes with a much higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate, yeah I will say that. Over 500 plate appearances in a season those two players would put up these numbers in each category:

    Hits (based on line drives going for hits 72% of the time)
    75 and 49.

    Walks
    54 and 88.

    Strikeouts
    129 and 115.

    So, in 500 plate appearances we have the guy with the higher strikeout rate, lesser walk rate and higher line drive rate getting on base (just based on walks and suggested line drive hits) at a .258 clip. The other guy is getting on base at a .274 clip. So yeah, I am going to take the lesser line drive guy, because he is going to get on base more.

    Edit below
    To take it a bit further, if we assume that the formula for BABIP is generally LD% +.120 = BABIP then lets just take the remaining balls in play and apply the .120 to them and see what the suggested OBP would be if no HR were hit at all by either player.

    There would be a .310 to .330 OBP difference between the two players if they weren't hit by any pitches or hit no home runs.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 06-25-2008 at 01:58 PM.

  4. #303
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It might, if it does, but it hasn't for two months now so I can't see it happening going forward.

    ok, when i thought that in my head it made sense.
    So based on what, 150 at bats it isn't likely to happen in the future?

  5. #304
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Not necessarily. In fact, as a proof point I'll submit Drew Stubbs. Those things are currently resulting in bupkus for him.

    You're just assuming that will net better things in the future because it's a pleasant convenience, just like choking up was the secret sauce for Stubbs last year.
    Yeah, I am assuming. I am assuming because a whole lot more often than not, its going to be true. Striking out less, walking a lot more and still hitting a lot of line drives is going to result in better production a whole lot more often than striking out more, walking a lot less and hitting some more line drives.

  6. #305
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,281

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If it comes with a much higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate, yeah I will say that. Over 500 plate appearances in a season those two players would put up these numbers in each category:

    Hits (based on line drives going for hits 72% of the time)
    75 and 49.

    Walks
    54 and 88.

    Strikeouts
    129 and 115.

    So, in 500 plate appearances we have the guy with the higher strikeout rate, lesser walk rate and higher line drive rate getting on base (just based on walks and suggested line drive hits) at a .258 clip. The other guy is getting on base at a .274 clip. So yeah, I am going to take the lesser line drive guy, because he is going to get on base more.
    That's looking at Drew in a vaccum. His OPS for June is now .719 (beating my prediction of .730 handily) his BB rate is all sample size, when all you are talking about 40 is PA's per month. And it's immaterial as he'll never BB enough to overcome his weak SLG. Opponents will know he can't do anything with a good pitch, they don't have to be as careful around him. We know he doesn't swing at bad pitches just like we know he can't make solid contact with good ones.

    And if by the end of this month, his OPS for the month is below .700 do you still promote him? 2 straight months of OPS in the .600's? yikes.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #306
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,159

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If it comes with a much higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate, yeah I will say that. Over 500 plate appearances in a season those two players would put up these numbers in each category:

    Hits (based on line drives going for hits 72% of the time)
    75 and 49.

    Walks
    54 and 88.

    Strikeouts
    129 and 115.

    So, in 500 plate appearances we have the guy with the higher strikeout rate, lesser walk rate and higher line drive rate getting on base (just based on walks and suggested line drive hits) at a .258 clip. The other guy is getting on base at a .274 clip. So yeah, I am going to take the lesser line drive guy, because he is going to get on base more.
    I don't disagree, but it does completely undercut the argument you were making about the magic of LD%. After all wouldn't this profile nuke his future SLG?

    Of course, we could just admit that its thoroughly preposterous to take a one-month slice of any player and pretend that's representative of his overall game.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. #307
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't disagree, but it does completely undercut the argument you were making about the magic of LD%. After all wouldn't this profile nuke his future SLG?

    Of course, we could just admit that its thoroughly preposterous to take a one-month slice of any player and pretend that's representative of his overall game.
    Granted we are talking about a 2 month sample now with May and June, but even still, his overall game from last year or the year before has made similar improvements in a massive upgrade in walks and line drives hit while his strikeout rate is a tad bit lower.

    As for his slugging, I still blame the league. While I don't think it would be anything special, it would be fairly different than it appears.

    And it doesn't really undercut the line drive part. Line drives are a very significant part of your hitting game. If you aren't hitting them, odds are you aren't getting hits too often.

  9. #308
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    That's looking at Drew in a vaccum. His OPS for June is now .719 (beating my prediction of .730 handily) his BB rate is all sample size, when all you are talking about 40 is PA's per month. And it's immaterial as he'll never BB enough to overcome his weak SLG. Opponents will know he can't do anything with a good pitch, they don't have to be as careful around him. We know he doesn't swing at bad pitches just like we know he can't make solid contact with good ones.

    And if by the end of this month, his OPS for the month is below .700 do you still promote him? 2 straight months of OPS in the .600's? yikes.
    No, looking at his flat out stat line is a vacuum. As for his walkrate, for the entire year its up nearly 5% from last year.

    And yeah, I would if his walk rate/strikeout rate/line drive rate stay where they are, I absolutely promote him because he is doing plenty to deserve the promotion. In the minor leagues everything isn't about the numbers in the stat line.

  10. #309
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,159

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah, I am assuming. I am assuming because a whole lot more often than not, its going to be true. Striking out less, walking a lot more and still hitting a lot of line drives is going to result in better production a whole lot more often than striking out more, walking a lot less and hitting some more line drives.
    No, not really. Minor league history is riddled with players who walked, whiffed and hit line drives at the rates Stubbs does and never made it.

    On the bright side, you unquestionably win the King of the Molehill.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #310
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,159

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So based on what, 150 at bats it isn't likely to happen in the future?
    I find this a little more than amusing coming from the guy who's been arguing with religious certitude that those 150 ABs means it WILL happen in the future.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #311
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,077

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I find this a little more than amusing coming from the guy who's been arguing with religious certitude that those 150 ABs means it WILL happen in the future.
    I was more arguing that anyone with those sustained rates would see the fruits of that come forward over time and that 150 at bats doesn't mean a lot but if they were to be sustained for a full season or more that the numbers would start to show it.

  13. #312
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,281

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, looking at his flat out stat line is a vacuum. As for his walkrate, for the entire year its up nearly 5% from last year.

    And yeah, I would if his walk rate/strikeout rate/line drive rate stay where they are, I absolutely promote him because he is doing plenty to deserve the promotion. In the minor leagues everything isn't about the numbers in the stat line.
    plenty? by plenty do you mean not hitting in general or not SLG? His SLG for June is lower than his OBP, and his OBP for this month isn't spectacular. And it was awful last month.

    See my thinking has always been he can't walk enough to compensate for his BA and poor SLG. And it's only going to get worse as he faces better pitchers. I think he might do a little better in his first month at AA until pitchers make their adjustment. He's a free swinger in the Adam Dunn mold minus the power. Dunn gets walked due to his keen eye (which Stubbs has) and because pitchers pitch around him due to his massive power (which Stubbs does NOT have). Dunn can sustain his BB rate. I don't think Stubbs can against better pitching.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #313
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Is Stubbs healthy?

    If so, what's the reason(s) he's struggling in High A ball?

  15. #314
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,281

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Is Stubbs healthy?

    If so, what's the reason(s) he's struggling in High A ball?
    He's raw...

    couldn't resist.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #315
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Drew Stubbs....

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    He's raw...

    couldn't resist.
    If by raw, you mean couldn't hit High A ball pitching with a cricket bat or a tennis racket?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25