No its not. Its a fact of what was going on when they drafted him. He was a very toolsy guy with plenty of work to be done, but with a pretty significant upside but would take time to reach (if he ever did). Everyone knew that when he was drafted.Originally Posted by TRF
properly translated ... suspect ability to hit going forward.
Everything I read about Stubbs was that he was almost major league ready with the glove and had good plate discipline. The only issue was his ability to hit as he moved forward. The guys that can hit move quickly and the ones that can't usually don't figure it out along the way. Because of his athleticism he was high reward but taking a position player that early that had hitting concerns was extreme high risk.
Last edited by flyer85; 06-17-2008 at 01:39 PM.
Usually, yeah. That was the case with Stubbs, but the guy has really improved in his two years in the system.
the numbers don't show it. He is still the high K/High bb//low BA guy that he was when he entered the organization and has since added low slugging, which is very troubling.
as I pointed out on draft day, the best comp for Stubbs is Dan Wilson-- another high Reds pick with questionable bat, but a reasonable success story. Interestingly, Wilson was pushed faster than Stubbs. By this time in his career, Wilson was a AAA player about to be brought up for a cup of coffee. Stubbs is a click and a half back. I'd challenge him.
The numbers don't show it, but he is indeed a much better hitter. His OPS has stayed roughly the same despite going from a hitters league, to a pitchers league to THE pitchers league in all of minor league baseball. His walk rate has climbed and his strikeout rate has stayed exactly the same. That indicates he is indeed growing at the plate. As for the low slugging, its the FSL. Not everyone is Jay Bruce and kills the FSL. Most guys look like they suck in the FSL then leave and kill the ball.
Frazier(508 slg) and Valaika(585) would both beg to differ. Both have hit very well in the FSL this year and both are a year younger than Stubbs.
Generally the jump from A to AA is considered the toughest in the minors.
Frazier doesn't really play up the middle, so he shouldn't be held to the same standard. Valaika was also repeating the level. Stubbs doesn't have the power of those guys, but my point still remains that lots of guys lose slugging in the FSL then discover it once they leave. That list is a mile long.
A to AA is usually toughest on pitchers. lately, Sarasota to Chatt has been pretty easy for our hitters-- there are guys that can't hit in Sarasota but do very well in Chattanooga. Billings to Dayton is probably toughest offensively, or Chatt to Louisville.
and yet is a year younger and his OPS has dropped 200 points since moving to AA.
Stubbs problem is still huge ... he has a high BB rate in A ball despite little power. The reason is because there are a lot of guys at that level that tend to struggle to throw strikes and since he has a good eye he takes walks. If you get to the majors and don't have much power the BBs are going to dry up because most pitchers have the command to throw strikes when they want and if you don't power they have don't have a reason to stay away.
For Stubbs to have success going forward while having contact issues he must develop at least 20 HR type power ... otherwise the walks are going to fade into the past.
yes, I think that you have the correct take. If he can hit for power, he'll be OK. if not, then he'll disappoint.
power develops last, and he's a big guy who sees a lot of pitches. So, there's always a chance.
I couldn't disagree with you any more. When Stubbs was drafted, it was known it would take him some time to move through the system. Some argue that if that was the case he didn't merrit consideration at #10... i certainly disagree.
There are lot of players taken in a draft that have high risk high reward and vice versa. This year we took the guy with low risk good reward. The Royals took Colt Griffin knowing he could be their future ace, he could be a bust. He busted.
For every Colt Griffin there is a Jeff Francis. Francis was rather raw as a starter, taken at 9. He was Canadian College Player and Rockies weren't quite as sure what they were gonna get. Same draft (2002), Joe Saunders was taken knowing he had a limited skill set but was ready for the majors with just a little time in the minors. Both College Players, drafted highly, with different skill sets that both merritted a high pick. Obviously Francis is a success story but i think it highlights the point. I know pitching is different etc... etc... but I thought it was a good example in a similar draft slot.
Stubbs is still very much a solid prospect. He just is taking time. I think that his pitch selection is an indication that he will ultimately hit for better average. It means hes more likely to wait on a pitch he can hit. He's not as effective at it as you'd like right now... but again... hes just in High A. His age only becomes a factor if he turns 25 and isn't in AA or AAA. For now, he's still a talent prospect getting seasoning and a lightly slower pace than lots here would like.
I really wish we could have a conversation about Stubbs without talking about Lincecum. It is rediculous... just because the board wanted us to take him. He was never connected to the Reds. I am WAY more pissed that the Reds took Gruler over Kazmir, especially considering Kazmir had been in contact with the Reds and Adam Dunn on multiple occasions. Kazmir was suprised we didn't take him!
I'll point out that we also passed on Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy. I will also point point out that the Orioles took William Rowell imediately after the Reds and he isn't even in High A... in fact there are only 3 players drafted after Stubbs in the first round who are in the majors... Lincecum, Scherzer, and Kennedy... in fact Stubbs is producing a lot better than a lot of the players taken around his slot.
has little to do with it. You need to be looking at his contact percent. As long as you swing and miss a lot it is very hard to be a high average hitter. Guys that swing and miss a lot can still be successful if they have power.
Fixed that for ya.
which is generally a catcher or a SS. Teams can only afford to do that if the make up for the no-stick somewhere else. The problem is that Reds really don't have a top notch prospect(can both hit and play above average defense) in the pipeline at either SS, C or CF.play great defense at a defensive position
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