Drew Stubbs....

[The_jbh]

has little to do with it. You need to be looking at his contact percent. As long as you swing and miss a lot it is very hard to be a high average hitter. Guys that swing and miss a lot can still be successful if they have power.

I disagree. I don't think Stubbs will ever be a "high percentage" hitter persay, but I think he can be a .270 .360-.380 guy.

We had a big arguement on this board awhile back about how hitting is really capitalizing on pitchers mistakes. When pitchers "make" a pitch, they are going to win 95% of the time. Hitters are successful when they work counts and wait for that mistake pitch. That is why I think that Stubbs pitch selection will yield a adequate batting average, especially considering his other skills.

[Kc61]

I'll point out that we also passed on Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy. I will also point point out that the Orioles took William Rowell imediately after the Reds and he isn't even in High A... in fact there are only 3 players drafted after Stubbs in the first round who are in the majors... Lincecum, Scherzer, and Kennedy... in fact Stubbs is producing a lot better than a lot of the players taken around his slot.

I followed you up until here. Rowell is a 19 year old prospect out of high school, is four years younger than Stubbs (almost to the day), and is indeed at High A, the same level as Stubbs.

And nobody is saying that Stubbs should be in the major leagues like some others in his draft class. Nor is anyone saying this is another Gruler situation, which upsets every Reds fan.

There are seven 2006 Reds draftees (Stubbs' class) who are at AA or higher -- Valaika, Watson, Smith, Turner, Roenicke(AAA), Lutz, Dorn. Todd Frazier, drafted a year later, is now at the same High A level as Stubbs. And none of them were drafted in the first round, as Stubbs was.

Doesn't mean he won't be good, he might. Apparently plays great defense and can take a walk. But it can't be said that Stubbs is right on track. His hitting is apparently holding him back, so far.

[The_jbh]

I followed you up until here. Rowell is a 19 year old prospect out of high school, is four years younger than Stubbs (almost to the day), and is indeed at High A, the same level as Stubbs.

And nobody is saying that Stubbs should be in the major leagues like some others in his draft class. Nor is anyone saying this is another Gruler situation, which upsets every Reds fan.

There are seven 2006 Reds draftees (Stubbs' class) who are at AA or higher -- Valaika, Watson, Smith, Turner, Roenicke(AAA), Lutz, Dorn. Todd Frazier, drafted a year later, is now at the same High A level as Stubbs. And none of them were drafted in the first round, as Stubbs was.

Doesn't mean he won't be good, he might. Apparently plays great defense and can take a walk. But it can't be said that Stubbs is right on track. His hitting is apparently holding him back, so far.

Apparently I'm blind and can't see Rewell in high a. Sorry about that.

I was just drawing the comparison to the Gruler/Kazmir lack of rage over the years about blowing the #3 pick when we could have an ace and the unfair treatment Stubbs, who still very much is a prospect in a position we badly need help on at the ML level (RH bat, CF so Bruce can play RF). I also want to highlight that the Reds were never connected to Lincecum... he was just a popular choice on this board. Kazmir (As was Gruler) was connected to the Reds days leading up to the draft and we passed on him.

I agree hes not right on track but I think he is on a track that still very likely could yield positive results... its just a slow track.

[M2]

I also want to highlight that the Reds were never connected to Lincecum... he was just a popular choice on this board.

Maybe they ought to hire us. Apparently we're pretty good.

[Caveat Emperor]

I agree hes not right on track but I think he is on a track that still very likely could yield positive results... its just a slow track.

Its a pretty simple deal for Drew Stubbs: Hit and you advance.

Time is not on his side, in this case. You're right, it may just start clicking for him one day -- there's no real rhyme or reason to any of this -- but history tells us that every day that passes without it clicking makes the odds of it ever happening that much longer.

[flyer85]

That is why I think that Stubbs pitch selection will yield a adequate batting average, especially considering his other skills.

Shandler and others have done the research and contact % can be tied to a range of batting averages with a very high probability. You may not like it but low contact hitters generally have low batting averages. There are always a few outliers but you sure wouldn't want to count on that.

[Rojo]

Drew's defense seems inversely related to his bat. Another long slump and he'll be Garry Maddox.

[The_jbh]

Shandler and others have done the research and contact % can be tied to a range of batting averages with a very high probability. You may not like it but low contact hitters generally have low batting averages. There are always a few outliers but you sure wouldn't want to count on that.

I think its one of those fun percentages that are fun to research and certainly have some value, but contrary to many's belief on this board, there is more to baseball than numbers and calculations.

My point is, Stubbs has a very important tool, he has good pitch selection. I think he can be a .250-.260 hitter with a .360-.380 OBP Well above average defense and great speed. I think he can be 15 HR guy with 20 to 25 in some great years.... essentially an Aaron Rowland type before his great 2007 season.

Players move at different speeds... currently he is showing three things that certainly would provide value to the current club, great defense up the middle, speed, and OBP. He does have a ways to go to produce at the major league level but he is certainly one of our top prospects... and who knows, maybe he'll put his hitting together and hit for avg.

[M2]

Given Stubbs current level of play I'd say he profiles as the next Chris Dickerson - same basic skill set, same basic performance.

[Hondo]

Well, alls I know that the Scouting Department has been bad for sooo Long...

Lincecum would have changed the face of this team if he had been taken... The team Taking Stubbs was a big mistake... Considering the holes in the system everywhere else... Like the Moresceco pick because we were Low on Catchers? I hope that guy starts hitting but come on... This is a joke...

[lollipopcurve]

Given Stubbs current level of play I'd say he profiles as the next Chris Dickerson - same basic skill set, same basic performance.

Interesting comparison because they do have the same basic skillset and they've matched age/level for the most part.

It appears Stubbs is nudging ahead of Dickerson.....

At age 23/high A Sarasota:

Dickerson .236/.325/.383 .708 OPS 2.34 K/BB

Stubbs .267/.383/.407 .790 OPS 1.58 K/BB

[HokieRed]

I think the case of Drew Stubbs is very simple. If he can maintain something like the OBP he has put up last year and this year so far, he is going to be a very valuable major league player. His relatively low slugging percentage will go up with time and he's a very good bet to put up around an .800 OPS with gold glove defense and the possibility of stealing 50 bases a year. In the Dickerson comparison, look at the differential in OBP--it's a whole half point; they're not really very comparable at all.

[flyer85]

I think the case of Drew Stubbs is very simple. If he can maintain something like the OBP he has put up last year and this year so far, he is going to be a very valuable major league player.

seems unlikley that a guy that has an OPS between 750 and 800 is going to come close to that in the majors

[lollipopcurve]

seems unlikley that a guy that has an OPS between 750 and 800 is going to come close to that in the majors

if the bat continues to develop....he's got raw power

[dougdirt]

seems unlikley that a guy that has an OPS between 750 and 800 is going to come close to that in the majors

Guys do develop. Stubbs has gone from a hitters league, to a pitchers league to the pitchers league in the minor leagues and he has stayed about the same player, which shows improvement over that time.