Drew Stubbs....

[M2]

I think the case of Drew Stubbs is very simple. If he can maintain something like the OBP he has put up last year and this year so far, he is going to be a very valuable major league player. His relatively low slugging percentage will go up with time and he's a very good bet to put up around an .800 OPS with gold glove defense and the possibility of stealing 50 bases a year. In the Dickerson comparison, look at the differential in OBP--it's a whole half point; they're not really very comparable at all.

Dickerson's got a career .359 OB. Stubbs is at .369. I'd say that's comparable.

Why will Stubbs' SLG go up? He's hit 21 HR in 925 professional ABs and at no point has he been young for his league. He's basically send up flares that power isn't ever going to be a featured part of his game. IMO, projecting a guy to hit better in the majors than he has as a 22- and 23-year-old in A ball is little more than wishful thinking. Sure, it could happen, but I'd think right now if you ignored his name and what organization he played for and just looked at what he's doing, the more responsible projection would be that he's progressing more like he'll .220-.230 hitter in the majors (better breaking pitches are going to drop his BA). Think Ruben Rivera with a little less power and a little more speed. And I'd say that's a fairly rosy outlook. He could just as easily get chewed up by better pitching in the upper minors and never get much more than a cup of coffee in the bigs.

The scenario you've presented is what would happen if Stubbs improved dramatically. The problem is he's no longer at an age where that kind of geometric progression is likely.

[lollipopcurve]

Dickerson's got a career .359 OB. Stubbs is at .369. I'd say that's comparable.

Sure, it's comparable. And it may prove to be a very apt comparison. But right now, Stubbs looks like a significantly better player at 23 tha Dickerson was at that age.

Why will Stubbs' SLG go up? He's hit 21 HR in 925 professional ABs and at no point has he been young for his league.

No one is saying it WILL go up. We are saying it has a decent enough chance to go up. You are suggesting it WON'T go up, based on past performance. Power develops late in many cases. Stubbs is heading to more hitter-friendly places. He has raw power and he's going to get physically stronger. If he continues to develop his bat, he'll learn to leverage his power better.

He's basically send up flares that power isn't ever going to be a featured part of his game.

True. But he's a very good defensive centerfielder with very good OPB skills. Power doesn't have to be a featured part of his game. This has been well understood on this board for as long as Stubbs has been in the organization.

Think Ruben Rivera with a little less power and a little more speed. And I'd say that's a fairly rosy outlook. He could just as easily get chewed up by better pitching in the upper minors and never get much more than a cup of coffee in the bigs.

Stubbs will have a better career than Ruben Rivera. Very little doubt in my mind.

[princeton]

Power doesn't have to be a featured part of his game. This has been well understood on this board for as long as Stubbs has been in the organization

??

I think that you poorly understand this. if he doesn't find some power, then he's not going to draw major league walks-- no reason for pitchers not to give him fat pitches--- and his infrequent singles won't allow him to impact a game.

[RedsManRick]

??

I think that you poorly understand this. if he doesn't find some power, then he's not going to draw major league walks-- no reason for pitchers not to give him fat pitches--- and his infrequent singles won't allow him to impact a game.

Exactly. It's one thing to be Luis Castillo and at least spray singles around the field, giving pitchers pause. But if you don't hit for power and you have trouble making contact, it could get ugly very quickly.

Just curious, is there anybody around in the game who strikes out 120+ times a year, slugs under .420 and gets on base over .340?

Willits? Kearns? Iwamura? Teahan?

[lollipopcurve]

I think that you poorly understand this. if he doesn't find some power, then he's not going to draw major league walks-- no reason for pitchers not to give him fat pitches--- and his infrequent singles won't allow him to impact a game.

No, I do not poorly understand it. Fat pitches will get hammered by anybody and everybody. Guys who never make it out of AA ball could survive in the majors if they got nothing but balls in the middle of the plate. And Stubbs has plenty of raw power. Balls dying on the track in 'sota are out of GAB. He will not be pitched like a singles hitter -- major leaguers will look for holes in his swing or in his pitch recognition abilities and pitch to those, just like they're doing with Bruce now (fastballs up) -- saying they'll groove pitches because they think he has a hard time hitting the ball 350 feet is, well, not getting it.

[dougdirt]

Exactly. It's one thing to be Luis Castillo and at least spray singles around the field, giving pitchers pause. But if you don't hit for power and you have trouble making contact, it could get ugly very quickly.

Just curious, is there anybody around in the game who strikes out 120+ times a year, slugs under .420 and gets on base over .340?

Willits? Kearns? Iwamura? Teahan?

It doesn't happen that often. Still, given the park, I think Stubbs could slug .420.

[princeton]

No, I do not poorly understand it. Fat pitches will get hammered by anybody and everybody. Guys who never make it out of AA ball could survive in the majors if they got nothing but balls in the middle of the plate. And Stubbs has plenty of raw power. Balls dying on the track in 'sota are out of GAB. He will not be pitched like a singles hitter -- major leaguers will look for holes in his swing or in his pitch recognition abilities and pitch to those, just like they're doing with Bruce now (fastballs up) -- saying they'll groove pitches because they think he has a hard time hitting the ball 350 feet is, well, not getting it.

you're talking in circles. Now you're saying that he will hit for more power.

that'd be good. he needs to hit for enough power to keep pitchers from getting overly aggressive with him. because his SB threat is probably not enough to do it, especially in the Reds ballpark.

[lollipopcurve]

Exactly. It's one thing to be Luis Castillo and at least spray singles around the field, giving pitchers pause. But if you don't hit for power and you have trouble making contact, it could get ugly very quickly.

Stubbs will hit for some power if he can keep his contact issues under reasonable control. His OBP skills are a sign that he has a decent chance to do that. He has raw power, and he will be playing in a bandbox.

[M2]

No one is saying it WILL go up. We are saying it has a decent enough chance to go up. You are suggesting it WON'T go up, based on past performance. Power develops late in many cases. Stubbs is heading to more hitter-friendly places. He has raw power and he's going to get physically stronger. If he continues to develop his bat, he'll learn to leverage his power better.

Dayton and Sarasota are hitter's parks. Dayton's homer friendly. Sarasota is double friendly. Billings is an absolute launching pad. It's not like Stubbs has been playing his home games in Myrtle Beach. Players with actual power have been able to hit for power in the places where Stubbs has played.

The problem with Stubb's "power" is that he never had an abundance of it and the power he had in college was largely a result of using an aluminum bat. He doesn't square the ball up well enough to generate power with a wood bat (the exact same problem Chris Dickerson suffers from). Stubbs already is big and strong. His problem is not that he lacks the physical components of power. His power problems are, primarily, swing related.

For the record, I'm not saying his power WON'T increase, but given where it is, we ought to be cognizant of what a power increase would look like. If he were to be a 15 HR guy, that would be a power increase.

And he'll need to get to that level because, as princeton noted, if he doesn't that's going to cut into his BB totals something fierce as he moves up the ladder. Also, as I mentioned above, the quality of breaking pitches he'll be seeing in higher levels is going to improve dramatically. Stubbs struggles mightily with breaking balls and that could tank both his BA and SLG. I'm not saying it will, but we ought to be aware that better pitchers might be able to take advantage of that sizable deficiency in his offensive game.

Ruben Rivera played 662 games in the majors, collecting 1,818 PAs, 62 HR and 203 RBI along the way. His career OPS was .700. Given the way Drew Stubbs has played to date, no way he has that kind of career in the majors. Rivera had at .838 OPS in the minors and most of that work came by the time he was already Stubbs' age. Stubbs will need to improve a good bit just to be Ruben Rivera.

[flyer85]

Stubbs already is big and strong. His problem is not that he lacks the physical components of power. His power problems are, primarily, swing related.

stuff I read on him around draft time pointed out that his hands and body were "disconnected" during his swing. the conclusion was that his power was limited.

[lollipopcurve]

you're talking in circles. Now you're saying that he will hit for more power.

No, I'm not. I'm saying he has plenty of "raw power" -- roughly speaking, doubles/triples power in Sarasota is evidence of that. It is well-documented in "the literature", too, that Stubbs has the power "tool." I am not saying he will be able to put this tool to use in the majors -- I am saying that because he possesses the tool he has a chance to hit for power. And I am saying playing in Cincinnati will help him hit the ball out of the park, too.

[lollipopcurve]

Ruben Rivera played 662 games in the majors, collecting 1,818 PAs, 62 HR and 203 RBI along the way. His career OPS was .700. Given the way Drew Stubbs has played to date, no way he has that kind of career in the majors. Rivera had at .838 OPS in the minors and most of that work came by the time he was already Stubbs' age. Stubbs will need to improve a good bit just to be Ruben Rivera.

Ruben Rivera was rushed, really rushed. Stubbs is being handled conservatively, and I'd say so far, so good. It's called player development.

The problem with Stubb's "power" is that he never had an abundance of it and the power he had in college was largely a result of using an aluminum bat. He doesn't square the ball up well enough to generate power with a wood bat (the exact same problem Chris Dickerson suffers from). Stubbs already is big and strong. His problem is not that he lacks the physical components of power. His power problems are, primarily, swing related.

I may agree with this, although I would say that bat speed may also be an issue. He's facing harder throwers in pro ball, and he may be skying pitches he used to drive.

we ought to be cognizant of what a power increase would look like. If he were to be a 15 HR guy, that would be a power increase.

Agreed. We're talking about "in-game" power vs. the power tool. Stubbs has a good chunk of "in-game" power left to find.

[M2]

stuff I read on him around draft time pointed out that his hands and body were "disconnected" during his swing. the conclusion was that his power was limited.

Exactly, this was a known problem heading into the 2006 draft. There always were profound doubts that he'd develop much in the way of power despite his frame.

[HokieRed]

I'll reiterate my original point. There's only one statistic in Stubbs' case you need to look at: his OBP. If he maintains it where it is, voila--he's in GABP center field.

[TRF]

No, I do not poorly understand it. Fat pitches will get hammered by anybody and everybody. Guys who never make it out of AA ball could survive in the majors if they got nothing but balls in the middle of the plate. And Stubbs has plenty of raw power. Balls dying on the track in 'sota are out of GAB. He will not be pitched like a singles hitter -- major leaguers will look for holes in his swing or in his pitch recognition abilities and pitch to those, just like they're doing with Bruce now (fastballs up) -- saying they'll groove pitches because they think he has a hard time hitting the ball 350 feet is, well, not getting it.

He's not hammering anything now.

No, I'm not. I'm saying he has plenty of "raw power" -- roughly speaking, doubles/triples power in Sarasota is evidence of that. It is well-documented in "the literature", too, that Stubbs has the power "tool." I am not saying he will be able to put this tool to use in the majors -- I am saying that because he possesses the tool he has a chance to hit for power. And I am saying playing in Cincinnati will help him hit the ball out of the park, too.

Triples have almost nothing to do with power, and everything to do with speed, park, and defense. Right now Stubbs has plenty of speed. Minor league defense is suspect as a whole, and the FSL plays as a pitchers league. Big parks make for a lot of flyball outs, but doubles down the line can be triples for a burner. He won't hit triples at the GABP.