Reds draft preview from Trent's blog

[OnBaseMachine]

Reds look to duplicate recent draft success
Tuesday, June 3, 2008, 06:07 PM EST

It's a staggering thought -- if Jay Bruce had chosen to go to Tulane instead of signing with the Reds in 2005, he'd be eligible to be drafted on Thursday, instead of playing at Philadelphia.

Homer Bailey, the team's first-round pick a year earlier, will be on the mound for the Reds on Thursday.

These two players have been tabbed as the team's future since they were drafted. A new Red of the future is expected to be picked at about 2:30 on Thursday, a half-hour after the First-Year Player Draft begins on ESPN2.

The Reds have the seventh overall pick, and in a relatively deep draft. Bruce was the 12th overall pick in 2005 and Bailey was taken with the seventh pick in 2004.

"The talent is different every year," said Chris Buckley, the Reds senior director of scouting. "The year (Bruce) came out, Terry Reynolds took him 12th. In 2006, he could have been the No. 1 pick."

The Royals took right-handed starter Luke Hochevar No. 1 overall in 2006. In 2005, the Diamondbacks took outfielder Justin Upton No. 1. Also taken before Bruce were Alex Gordon (Royals), Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals), Ryan Braun (Brewers), Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies), Cameron Maybin (Tigers) and Andrew McCutchen (Pirates).

Even this early, the 2005 draft looks to be one of the most productive drafts in recent history. According to Buckley, 2008 has an impressive amount of talent, even if there is no clear-cut No. 1 overall pick.

Although the Reds pick seventh, there are as many as five players the Tampa Bay Rays are reportedly looking at with the top pick. From there things could be shake up depending on who the Rays pick.

While Buckley said some players could slide based solely upon their choice of agents, Buckley said the Reds haven't crossed anyone off their list because of their representation. Scott Boras represents Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, California high school right-hander Gerrit Cole and Florida high school first baseman Eric Hosmer.

While the on-field scouting is done, he said, the Reds are determining certain players financial demands. That could influence the pick, but won't be the deciding factor, Buckley said.

"(Genral manager) Walt (Jocketty) and Bob Castellini have told me everyone's in play," Buckley said. "(Thursday) when we have the last piece of information, they may hear some thing that changes their mind."

Buckley was hired by former general manager Wayne Krivsky, but said the team's draft approach hasn’t changed under Jocketty.

"I think they had pretty similar philosophies, bring in as much talent as you can, you get the best guys with the best make-up," Buckley said. "Walt's been in and out, just like Wayne was. (Jocketty) is totally up to date. He's looked at a lot of films, he's heard a lot of scouts. They're very similar in their approach."

Last year the Reds took high school catcher Devan Mesorasco in the first round, in 2006 they took University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs. Buckley said there's no set rule they use to make their selections.

"The best talent, what we're looking for," Buckley said.

Whether or not the Reds select the best talent on Thursday may not be apparent for several years. Three years after the 2005 draft, the Reds feel good about their selection -- Jay Bruce will have his name called at Citizen’s Bank Park on Thursday instead of during the draft.

"Now tell me who won," Buckley said.

Possible Red selections

1B Yonder Alonso, University of Miami
6-2, 215
The first baseman led the Hurricanes to the Super Regional this weekend against Arizona. Alonso is hitting .370 with 21 home runs and 66 RBIs.

SS Gordon Beckham, University of Georgia
6-0, 185
Beckham is a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, given to college baseball’s best player. Beckham’s Bulldogs advanced to the Super Regionals last week. The unanimous SEC Player of the Year is hitting .397 with 24 home runs, 85 runs scored, 189 total bases and 65 RBIs.

RHP Aaron Crow, University of Missouri
6-2, 205
Crow is a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, given to college baseball’s best player. Crow set a school record with 13 wins and had a streak of 43 scoreless innings. He finished the season 13-0 with a 2.35 ERA and his 127 strikeouts were the sixth-most in the NCAA.

RHP/SS Casey Kelly, Sarasota (Fla.)
6-3, 195
The son of Reds Gulf Coast League manager Pat Kelly, the younger Kelly could play shortstop or pitch or he could end up playing football. He signed a letter of intent to play quarterback at Tennessee. Kelly hit .473 for Sarasota High School.

LHP Brian Matusz, University of San Diego
6-4, 200
It’s unlikely Matusz drops to seven, but stranger things have happened. He was a fourth-round pick of the Angels in 2005. He has a 90-93 mph fastball with plus off-speed pitches. Matusz was 12-2 with a 1.71 ERA, striking out 141 batters in 105 innings.

7th overall picks
2007 – OF Matthew LaPorta, Brewers
2006 – LHP Clayton Kerswhaw, Dodgers
2005 – SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2004 – RHP Homer Bailey, Reds
2003 – OF Nick Markakis, Orioles
2002 – 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers
2001 – LHP Chris Smith, Orioles
2000 – RHP Matthew Harrington, Rockies
1999 – RHP Kyle Snyder, Royals
1998 – OF Austin Kearns, Reds
1997 – RHP Dan Reichert, Royals
1996 – RHP Matt White, Giants
1995 – RHP Jonathan Johnson, Rangers
1994 – LHP Doug Million, Rockies
1993 – OF Trot Nixon, Red Sox
1992 – OF/3B Calvin Murray, Giants
1991 – OF Joseph Vitiello, Royals
1990 – C Dan Wilson, Reds
1989 – 1B Frank Thomas, White Sox
1988 – OF Willie Ansley, Astros

Reds first-round picks (overall pick)
2007 – C Devan Mesorasco (15)
2006 – OF Drew Stubbs (8)
2005 – OF Jay Bruce (12)
2004 – RHP Homer Bailey (7)
2003 – RHP Ryan Wagner (14)
2002 – RHP Chris Gruler (3)
2001 – LHP Jeremy Sowers (20)
2000 – SS David Espinosa (23)
1999 – LHP Ty Howington (22)
1998 – OF Austin Kearns (7)
1997 – SS Brandon Larson (14)
1996 – OF John Oliver (25)
1995 – No 1st round pick, RHP Brett Tomko (54)
1994 – LHP C.J. Nitkowski (9)
1993 – No 1st round pick, OF Pat Watkins (32)
1992 – OF Chad Mottola (5)
1991 – SS Pokey Reese (20)
1990 – C Dan Wilson (7)
1989 – OF Scott Bryant (20)
1988 – No 1st round pick, INF Jeff Branson (45)

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

[Ben]

2007 – OF Matthew LaPorta, Brewers
2006 – LHP Clayton Kerswhaw, Dodgers
2005 – SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
2004 – RHP Homer Bailey, Reds
2003 – OF Nick Markakis, Orioles
2002 – 1B Prince Fielder, Brewers

WOW, I didn't realize the track record with the 7th overall pick. Here's hoping we're the next team to cash in (with Brian Matusz of course)

[flyer85]

the list of picks over the last 20 years explains a lot of the Reds lack of success on the field.

[fearofpopvol1]

Ugh. I really don't want to see Casey Kelly's name mentioned with the Reds again.

[OnBaseMachine]

the list of picks over the last 20 years explains a lot of the Reds lack of success on the field.

No kidding. What an awful list from 1988-1998 when they finally got it right with Austin Kearns in the first round and Dunn in the second round. Then they were horrible again from 1999-2003, though they did grab Joey Votto in the second round of 2002. Homer Bailey is looking like a nice pick in 2004. Jay Bruce was a steal in 2005. 2006 could have been better with Lincecum but Stubbs still looks like a future major leaguer with his defense and OBP skills, plus Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Danny Dorn, and Josh Roenicke all are at AA or AAA and look liek future major leaguers. Baseball America rated the Reds 2007 draft as among the best and hopefully 2008 will be the same.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Intersting that there is no mention of Lawrie.

[tommycash]

Here is what John Fay had on his Blog:

The Reds pick seventh in tomorrow's draft, so what happens with the six picks above them will greatly influence what they do.

"I can give you a list of three or four guys," scouting director Chris Buckley said. "But, at 7, you don't know if they're going to be there."

The four the Reds are hoping for (with where Baseball America rates them):

--2. Brian Matusz, a left-handed pitcher from the University of San Diego: He was a fourth-round pick out of high school. He throws up to 93, but his offspeed stuff sets him apart.

--4. Buster Posey, a catcher from Florida State: He's a converted shortstop. Baseball America calls him "one of the safest picks in the his years draft. His projection as an offensive catcher with Gold Glove-caliber defense has boosted Posey's draft stock as much as anyone's over the weeks leading up to the draft."

--6. Gordon Beckham, a shortstop from Georgia: That's Jeff Keppinger's background as well. Beckham won the Cape Cod home run title last year. He's been among the leading hitters in the NCAA, both in average and home runs.

--10. Yonder Alonso, a first baseman from Miami: A very good hitter. Drove in 69 runs as a freshman. Hit .376 with 18 homers as a sophomore.

Notice that each player plays a different position.

"I believe in drafting for value," Buckley said. "What are the needs of the Reds today might not be the needs in three years when these guys will be ready. Walt (Jocketty) can trade anyone."

[OnBaseMachine]

Good stuff Tommy. No mention of Lawrie there. It's almost guaranteed that one one of those guys will be available when the Reds pick, especially Beckham and Alonso. I would be happy with either one of those guys.

[HokieRed]

If you figure Alvarez and T. Beckham gone before we draft, and Hosmer likely, we should be able to get one of those 4 or Crow. Hosmer may drop but there's no way Alvarez or T. Beckham drop as far as us. I think there's some pressure on our guys because there are good players there and the draft will look really bad if we take one that doesn't work out. We need to get a player out of this pick, either a solid everyday regular or a starter who's at least a #2. G. Beckham may be the choice it'd be hardest to take issue with.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

If Alonso is taken I wonder what that means for re-signing Adam Dunn. You have to figure Alonso's bat takes him to the big club pretty quickly and being only capable of playing 1B, it could signal the end of the Dunn era with Votto moving to LF.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Conversely, if a Matusz is taken (hope, hope), the need to re-sign Dunn will increase in importance.

[OesterPoster]

I highly doubt that drafting any one particular player in 2008 will impact Dunn in 2009 or 2010. Maybe in the NFL, but not Major League Baseball.

[LincolnparkRed]

I will say Wagner sure made everyone look smart at the end of 2003. He was bitten by the injury bug in 2004 or 2005 right and was never the same if I recall.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I highly doubt that drafting any one particular player in 2008 will impact Dunn in 2009 or 2010. Maybe in the NFL, but not Major League Baseball.

Normally, I'd agree. But they have to make a decision on Dunn in the next few months. If Alonso or Smoak are taken (with such developed college bats) I think it's clear that the Reds plan on having them at 1B within the next year or so. Votto has already played a bit of LF in the minors, which would be his only other position if he is to remain a Red as well.

[fearofpopvol1]

I don't think there is any chance Posey falls to the Reds. I think it's pretty unlikely that Matsuz falls to the Reds. So, IF Fay's report is correct, it'll come down to G. Beckham and Alonso most likely. In that scenario, I hope the Reds go with Beckham.