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Thread: How far back is too far back?

  1. #1
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    How far back is too far back?

    Well, is this too soon to ask? 10 games back and maybe (probably) more before the Reds get back home. If they are in a race for the Wild Card, then they could still be almost 10 games back of either St. Louis or Florida.

    What happens when they are too far back to make a run at the playoffs?

    JR traded? ..... Dunn? .......Harang? ......Arroyo?

    Bailey will already up (apparently), do other get the call?
    "Is there a problem officers?"

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  3. #2
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    I truly thought the Reds were out of it by Memorial Day last year, and they were 9.5 games out.

    They are 10 out now, but I think are a slightly better team than they were last year.

    One thing they have going for them- it's the Cubs that are in first place. You know they will find a way to mess things up somewhere along the line.

  4. #3
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    The Reds are out of it, pretty much everything--division, Wild Card. They're toast. But they are looking better, I have to say.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    The Reds would have to play better baseball than any team in the NL has played so far in order to win 90 games. That should tell you all you need to know.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The Reds would have to play better baseball than any team in the NL has played so far in order to win 90 games. That should tell you all you need to know.
    Actually the Cubs have played .644 ball, if the Reds do that over their last 103 games they win 66 more games. Would end up with 94 wins.

    I think it's highly unlikely the Reds are going anywhere but I wouldn't write off the Wild Card yet. A lot of that is because the only two teams that are significantly ahead of the Reds in that race are St. Louis and Florida, teams who I think are unlikely to keep up their current pace. So I don't think it's over yet, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

    And to answer the original question, when the Reds fall too far back I think Dunn gets traded. I really hope he doesn't, but I'm starting to get that feeling.
    Last edited by SMcGavin; 06-04-2008 at 10:08 PM.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Actually the Cubs have played .644 ball, if the Reds do that over their last 103 games they win 66 more games. Would end up with 94 wins.
    Oops... how'd I manage that. Still pretty unlikely that we're going to put together that sort of run...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    So how long before WJ realize what we already know? How long before he makes some sort of "look to the future" type moves?
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  9. #8
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    So how long before WJ realize what we already know? How long before he makes some sort of "look to the future" type moves?
    He needs to make moves yesterday.

    The status quo will not work for this organization.

    Hoping all the kids develop for 2009 is a fatal "eggs in one basket" plan.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    He needs to make moves yesterday.

    The status quo will not work for this organization.

    Hoping all the kids develop for 2009 is a fatal "eggs in one basket" plan.
    What kids need to 'develop'? Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez are all doing it at the major league level. Harang, Arroyo, Phillips and the bullpen are here.

  11. #10
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    The pen isn't that good. Yes, it's better than last year's, but almost any would be. Roenicke and/ or a combination of Thompson, Maloney need to continue being good as they're called up, whether it be September or as others get dealt. Dorn and possibly Cumberland need to hit well for a possible September call-up or at least a move to AAA as the draft shakes things up.

    If Dunn goes, so goes the season. But it gives me hope that Krivsky was canned for not winning. Castellini knows that dealing Dunn will involve even more losing, so at least that's not bad. Right?

  12. #11
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Oops... how'd I manage that. Still pretty unlikely that we're going to put together that sort of run...
    Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.

  13. #12
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.
    This current string of games against NL East teams is actually pretty important if one is looking at the Wild Card. The Reds closed some ground on the Braves with the sweep over the weekend, and they'll have a chance to close some ground on Florida this week. Plus if they can win tomorrow, they won't lose ground to the Phillies, though I think Philly is the favorite to win the East.

    The only way the Reds can catch the Cubs at this point is to blow them out head-to-head and go on a nice tear to finish the season.
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  14. #13
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.
    Give the Phils the NL East. 2nd in the NL West may be lucky to get 82 wins.

    Then only threats to win 90 outside of the division winners would be the NL East runner-up. Specifically the Braves/Mets. This assumes pretenders like the Marlins/Cards find there way back to .500 or less teams (like they should be).

    The Reds can finish 2nd in the NL Central and on paper with a staff getting much better and Bruce Almighty in the lineup, I see no reason they couldn't stay in the WC race late in the year.

  15. #14
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    Rockies 2007 -
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  16. #15
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: How far back is too far back?

    The Reds have for many years strung out the first few months just enough to give the team a glimmer of hope.
    The reality was the pitching staff was made up of a bunch of wannabees, the bullpen had absolutely no credibility, and there was no one ready to help.

    This team has two solid top of the rotation starters, an acceptable # 3 starter, and the possibilities at #4 of a future star as well. #5 Has been a black hole, but if they gain some ground there will be plenty of options to acquire one if necessary. Those top 4 starters also possess very very good peripherals, giving good reason to expect their performance as a group to improve on the results so far.


    The offense is still a bit sketchy and inconsistent. But if Griff finds his swing, Freel, Kepp and Gonzo return....a lot of problems are fixed, and they also have some tremendous depth on the bench. Perhaps DB can actually come to his senses on lineup construction and throw out a 2-5 of Bruce, Votto, Dunn and Griff vs. righties. That would be scary.
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