Jay Bruce was just the BPA it was a no brainer. and the guy who drafted him, Terry Rynolds is still in the organization as the farm director.
All of your arguments are flawed. Just look at the minors and see what Buckly, Reynolds and company have done then come back to the thread
I have full faith that as long as we have Buckley and Reynolds we will continue to have one of the top farms in the bigs
Sure, the development guys definally get credit, and if my theory is wrong, so do the draft guys. But I think it's wrong to say, "They've done a good job recently. So I'm just going to believe in them." There are so many things that I think send out warning signals.
1) Gordon was on the board
2) By general consensus, Smoak was the better pick
3) Rumor (if not truth) is that Alonso wants a big signing bonus (if not $8 million)
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
I would have chosen Gordon Beckham myself. But again, to be THAT SURE the Reds made a mistake, you're putting an awful lot of faith in the opinions of various pundits and prognosticators, none of whom has earned the right to have his opinion considered holy writ.
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible
Just to make it clear, despite the strong stance, I'm not automatically writing off Alonso as a bust before he hits the field. I just don't like him a player and think the Reds could have done much better than Alonso.
Last edited by AdamDunn; 06-06-2008 at 03:49 PM. Reason: adding something
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
I respect and appreciate your work on the reds minor leauges. I also realize that the Reds scouting department has done one heck of a job in turning around the minor league system. But there are several questions that surround this pick.
-This was a WK scouting department who made this pick. You have to wonder how long they will be there and if they made the pick that would hit the majors the quickest and not the best pick for the organization.
-Them clearing a spot on the 40 man roster right before the draft speaks to them offering Alonso a major leauge contract. That said if they thought that he would be in the majors soon why would they pick Alonso?
-He is a left handed hitting 1b. The reds already have two left handed hitting 1b playing every day in Dunn and Votto. Was this pick made in light of a future Dunn decisions? I would lean towards no but if they cleared a spot on the 40 man and think he could be in the majors soon it would be counterproductive to sign Dunn to a 4-5 year deal.
-I hope he develops into a 30-40 HR guy and doesn't develop into a Sean Casey type player. I question the pick because you have Beckham sitting right behind who from all reports is a better than average defender at a SS and people liken him to Khalil Greene. I take a Khalil Greene type over a Casey type any day of the week.
-The 1b only bothers me with the 7th pick in the draft. Other than a pitcher I would have prefered the reds to draft a player who had more options. When/if Alonso is ready to be called up to the bigs he will force the organization to make a move. This is different than the Jay Bruce situation because even though Bruce is a RF he is able to play 3 different positions. A guy like Bruce can come up and get his feet wet when "his position" isn't open. A guy like Alonso will force a decision to be made. For me it all comes down to getting your best 8 players on the field at the same time. If a certain player has to play out of position for a while then that is ok. But I don't want an everday player having to switch positions in the middle of the season.
What kind of stats did Smoak put up in the Cape Cod league? I bet Alonso out hit him by quite a bit.
I find it hard to believe that so many are willing to say he's a great pick while saying others are in err for saying he's a bad pick.
Just because my Reds drafted him doesn't mean I am suddenly a fan. He can prove me wrong, I hope he does, but as of this moment I think it was the wrong pick to make and I won't drink the kool-aid just because the Reds drafted him.
Championships for MY teams in my lifetime:
Cincinnati Reds - 75, 76, 90
Chicago Blackhawks - 10, 13
University of Kentucky - 78, 96, 98, 12
Chicago Bulls - 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 98
I like masters of one; not jacks of all trades.
I am not an expert on amateur talent, so I have no opinion on who the Reds should have drafted, but I read every draft scouting report and every mock draft I could find, and the only thing that was clear was that there was no consensus on who the Reds should have picked, and there was no consensus over who was better among the three you mentioned.
What I read was that Beckham was a great all around baseball player with great instincts, but there was doubt about his bat, and whether he could stay at SS. Ceiling, he was a Khalil Greene type, floor he was a Bobby Crosby or Jeff Keppinger type. He was picked by one scout as the most over-rated player in the top 10.
What I read about Smoak was that he had great power, and is a very advanced hitter for being an amateur. He has not hit with a wooden bat, but no one thinks that will be a problem. He has a solid if unimpressive glove at first, but that is the only position he can play. He has had problems with breaking balls, and did not perform well for Team USA, which has caused some concern for scouts. He also had not lead on about his contract demands, which has scared some organizations. The fear is that he could end up asking for a ton of money. Ceiling he is Teixeira, floor he is Nick Johnson.
What I read about Alonso is that he was the most advanced bat in the draft, a great eye, great approach to hitting, but needed to pull the ball for power more. What made his stock rise was what he did in the Cape Cod league, a wooden bat league. He hit .338 with a .468 OBP and a .497 SLG. With a wooden bat. Baseball America ranked him the second best prospect in that league. They ranked Beckham 12th best. His glove was rated about equal to Smoak, maybe a little worse, decent but not outstanding, and 1B is the only position he can play. Ceiling he is Jim Thome, floor he is Sean Casey.
So basically, it is not clear who the best prospect was amongst those three, and we all will just have to wait a year or two to even begin to know who was.
However, what's the timetable on Alfonso? Could he be a September call up ala Ryan Zimmerman or should we expect to wait a year or two?
That hit was plenty fair. Atleast by a quarter of an inch.