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Thread: Where are the Reds Going?

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    Joey Votto - Jim Bowden (not that he was good or anything)
    Jay Bruce - Dan O'Brien (with the scouting of Brian Wilson)

    etc.

    Like I said, I'm surprised we've had such success in the development of players. We're lucky that two managers (Dan O'Brien and WK) both knew how to raise a minor league system (WK better than DanO, but w/e)
    And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    Joey Votto - Jim Bowden (not that he was good or anything)
    Jay Bruce - Dan O'Brien (with the scouting of Brian Wilson)

    etc.

    Like I said, I'm surprised we've had such success in the development of players. We're lucky that two managers (Dan O'Brien and WK) both knew how to raise a minor league system (WK better than DanO, but w/e)
    Votto didn't start to be successful till Krivsky's guys got a hold of him
    Jay Bruce was just the BPA it was a no brainer. and the guy who drafted him, Terry Rynolds is still in the organization as the farm director.

    All of your arguments are flawed. Just look at the minors and see what Buckly, Reynolds and company have done then come back to the thread

  4. #33
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.
    don't you just hate it when people think that once someone gets drafted, what you see is what you get and the coaches and development philosophy don't matter

    I have full faith that as long as we have Buckley and Reynolds we will continue to have one of the top farms in the bigs

  5. #34
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.
    Development is different from who got them. Sure Chris Buckley is in, but WK is out. This is just my theory, but I think WK had a big hand in the draft, at least in the first couple of rounds. If I remember correctly, Buckley was a big College draft guy in Toronto. Since he's been here, he hasn't drafted a college player in the first round.

    Sure, the development guys definally get credit, and if my theory is wrong, so do the draft guys. But I think it's wrong to say, "They've done a good job recently. So I'm just going to believe in them." There are so many things that I think send out warning signals.

    1) Gordon was on the board
    2) By general consensus, Smoak was the better pick
    3) Rumor (if not truth) is that Alonso wants a big signing bonus (if not $8 million)
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  6. #35
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    It's pretty clear that Alonso is going to cost a lot and was not the best player left in the draft. It is pretty clear that Smoak (great glove, switch-hitter, power to all fields) is the better player, both offensively and defensively.
    As I posted in another thread, I'll grant the defense argument, and I love switch-hitters. But it's not even remotely clear that Smoak is or will be a better hitter. Alonso has what was called the best plate approach in the draft, he has terrific power now with plenty of room to improve, has proven he can hit with wood, and his performance record concedes nothing to Smoak. I don't have any problem with choosing him over Smoak.

    I would have chosen Gordon Beckham myself. But again, to be THAT SURE the Reds made a mistake, you're putting an awful lot of faith in the opinions of various pundits and prognosticators, none of whom has earned the right to have his opinion considered holy writ.
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    Development is different from who got them. Sure Chris Buckley is in, but WK is out. This is just my theory, but I think WK had a big hand in the draft, at least in the first couple of rounds. If I remember correctly, Buckley was a big College draft guy in Toronto. Since he's been here, he hasn't drafted a college player in the first round.
    I'm pretty sure he drafted Stubbs.....

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    As I posted in another thread, I'll grant the defense argument, and I love switch-hitters. But it's not even remotely clear that Smoak is or will be a better hitter. Alonso has what was called the best plate approach in the draft, he has terrific power now with plenty of room to improve, has proven he can hit with wood, and his performance record concedes nothing to Smoak. I don't have any problem with choosing him over Smoak.

    I would have chosen Gordon Beckham myself. But again, to be THAT SURE the Reds made a mistake, you're putting an awful lot of faith in the opinions of various pundits and prognosticators, none of whom has earned the right to have his opinion considered holy writ.
    You're right, it's awfully strong. But that's how I feel. That's the inherit problem with arguing about the draft. You never know until they hit the field in the minors. I'm just not sold that 1) he'll be worth the 7th pick and 2) that Smoak was the better player both offensively and defensively.

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    I'm pretty sure he drafted Stubbs.....
    Good call. Forget that sometimes since Stubbs is still in the minors. usually someone drafted 8th and is in college are put on the fast track.

    Just to make it clear, despite the strong stance, I'm not automatically writing off Alonso as a bust before he hits the field. I just don't like him a player and think the Reds could have done much better than Alonso.
    Last edited by AdamDunn; 06-06-2008 at 02:49 PM. Reason: adding something
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  9. #38
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Honest question.....
    This team has graduated Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this year and could sport at least 5 or 6 more Top 100 prospects in baseball this year with Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Duran, Travis Wood, Daryl Thompson and Yonder Alonso.... don't they deserve at least some faith that they know what they are doing in the scouting and development department?
    Honest reply....

    I respect and appreciate your work on the reds minor leauges. I also realize that the Reds scouting department has done one heck of a job in turning around the minor league system. But there are several questions that surround this pick.

    -This was a WK scouting department who made this pick. You have to wonder how long they will be there and if they made the pick that would hit the majors the quickest and not the best pick for the organization.

    -Them clearing a spot on the 40 man roster right before the draft speaks to them offering Alonso a major leauge contract. That said if they thought that he would be in the majors soon why would they pick Alonso?

    -He is a left handed hitting 1b. The reds already have two left handed hitting 1b playing every day in Dunn and Votto. Was this pick made in light of a future Dunn decisions? I would lean towards no but if they cleared a spot on the 40 man and think he could be in the majors soon it would be counterproductive to sign Dunn to a 4-5 year deal.

    -I hope he develops into a 30-40 HR guy and doesn't develop into a Sean Casey type player. I question the pick because you have Beckham sitting right behind who from all reports is a better than average defender at a SS and people liken him to Khalil Greene. I take a Khalil Greene type over a Casey type any day of the week.

    -The 1b only bothers me with the 7th pick in the draft. Other than a pitcher I would have prefered the reds to draft a player who had more options. When/if Alonso is ready to be called up to the bigs he will force the organization to make a move. This is different than the Jay Bruce situation because even though Bruce is a RF he is able to play 3 different positions. A guy like Bruce can come up and get his feet wet when "his position" isn't open. A guy like Alonso will force a decision to be made. For me it all comes down to getting your best 8 players on the field at the same time. If a certain player has to play out of position for a while then that is ok. But I don't want an everday player having to switch positions in the middle of the season.

  10. #39
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    What kind of stats did Smoak put up in the Cape Cod league? I bet Alonso out hit him by quite a bit.

  11. #40
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    I find it hard to believe that so many are willing to say he's a great pick while saying others are in err for saying he's a bad pick.

    Just because my Reds drafted him doesn't mean I am suddenly a fan. He can prove me wrong, I hope he does, but as of this moment I think it was the wrong pick to make and I won't drink the kool-aid just because the Reds drafted him.

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  12. #41
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    I find it hard to believe that so many are willing to say he's a great pick while saying others are in err for saying he's a bad pick.
    It is Redszone. You either love or hate someone on this board. You have been around long enough to know that

  13. #42
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It is Redszone. You either love or hate someone on this board. You have been around long enough to know that
    Good point.

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  14. #43
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    I like masters of one; not jacks of all trades.

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    I say unless they're a solid for sure (as sure as a prospect can be that is), they don't deserve $8 million. I hope he gets less than half of that. He surely doesn't deserve to have the highest signing bonus in Reds history.

    You're right. He might become a star. I argue that there were two players that were clearly better picks. Smoak and Gordon. My uneducated opinion (strong as it is) is that he won't.
    There are no such thing as "clearly better picks" at the #7 pick in any draft, and that was especially true in this draft. The MLB draft is a crap shoot. Just look at the past drafts results. Heck, Corey Patterson was a #3 pick, and everyone was raving about what a great pick the Cubs made when they drafted him.


    I am not an expert on amateur talent, so I have no opinion on who the Reds should have drafted, but I read every draft scouting report and every mock draft I could find, and the only thing that was clear was that there was no consensus on who the Reds should have picked, and there was no consensus over who was better among the three you mentioned.

    What I read was that Beckham was a great all around baseball player with great instincts, but there was doubt about his bat, and whether he could stay at SS. Ceiling, he was a Khalil Greene type, floor he was a Bobby Crosby or Jeff Keppinger type. He was picked by one scout as the most over-rated player in the top 10.

    What I read about Smoak was that he had great power, and is a very advanced hitter for being an amateur. He has not hit with a wooden bat, but no one thinks that will be a problem. He has a solid if unimpressive glove at first, but that is the only position he can play. He has had problems with breaking balls, and did not perform well for Team USA, which has caused some concern for scouts. He also had not lead on about his contract demands, which has scared some organizations. The fear is that he could end up asking for a ton of money. Ceiling he is Teixeira, floor he is Nick Johnson.

    What I read about Alonso is that he was the most advanced bat in the draft, a great eye, great approach to hitting, but needed to pull the ball for power more. What made his stock rise was what he did in the Cape Cod league, a wooden bat league. He hit .338 with a .468 OBP and a .497 SLG. With a wooden bat. Baseball America ranked him the second best prospect in that league. They ranked Beckham 12th best. His glove was rated about equal to Smoak, maybe a little worse, decent but not outstanding, and 1B is the only position he can play. Ceiling he is Jim Thome, floor he is Sean Casey.

    So basically, it is not clear who the best prospect was amongst those three, and we all will just have to wait a year or two to even begin to know who was.

  16. #45
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    just have to hope they are right but it seems that one of Votto/Alonso will have to go in the next few years.

    Trying to make 1Bs into LFs is a bad idea ... especially seeing how much folks around here complain about the OF defense.
    Nope, if anything, Dunn's a goner. Votto will be moved to left field (hell, he played it last season for the Reds at times) and Alfonso will be the 1B.

    However, what's the timetable on Alfonso? Could he be a September call up ala Ryan Zimmerman or should we expect to wait a year or two?
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