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Thread: Where are the Reds Going?

  1. #46
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There are no such thing as "clearly better picks" at the #7 pick in any draft, and that was especially true in this draft. The MLB draft is a crap shoot. Just look at the past drafts results. Heck, Corey Patterson was a #3 pick, and everyone was raving about what a great pick the Cubs made when they drafted him...

    So basically, it is not clear who the best prospect was amongst those three, and we all will just have to wait a year or two to even begin to know who was.
    I like what you say. I'm not saying that Smoak and Beckham are clearly better players. As mentioned, you never know what's going to happen with prospects. Smoak and Beckham have a very real possibility of being busts.

    But I'm saying they would have been better picks in terms of ceiling and money.
    FIRE DUSTY BAKER

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  3. #47
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    If Alonso is signed to a major league contract then look for him to be called up this September. That's usually one of the agreements in the deal.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. #48
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    I like what you say. I'm not saying that Smoak and Beckham are clearly better players. As mentioned, you never know what's going to happen with prospects. Smoak and Beckham have a very real possibility of being busts.

    But I'm saying they would have been better picks in terms of ceiling and money.
    Yet you have no clue what any of them are signing for. Smoak didn't even float a number out there and that scared teams. Maybe he wants a MLB deal and 8 million? BTW, MLB deals the bonus's aren't always paid in 1 year. So lets say someone gets an 8 million dollar bonus on a MLB deal, that could be split up over 2-3 years. Not saying it will happen, just that it can.

  5. #49
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    If Alonso is signed to a major league contract then look for him to be called up this September. That's usually one of the agreements in the deal.
    he is the one guy in this draft who could do so. His advanced plate discipline should allow him to mow through the minors.

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Also the more and more I look at Yonder and look at his tools and numbers he puts up, he really really reminds me of a left handed hitting Albert Pujouls, low K's, high BB's ,high average, plenty of power, should have a .400+OBP at the ML level.

  7. #51
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    I think it's important given this discussion to note a few things. #1 being that although some prospects look good and some not necc. so good in this current regimes (sans Jocketty) time here none they have drafted have passed AA except Roenicke. Yes they have proven to be fair developers of talent but not necc. moreso.

    What I see is a group of guys who have proven that they won't sidetrack the development of a player and that they do stress better fundamentals than previous regimes. But they haven't proven to be able to develop a raw guy and except for small sample sizes haven't yet drafted a single player who even resembles a major league impact player. With the only exceptions of Todd Frazier (I could probably get one right if I had 3 1st's also) who looks solid and Roenicke (If he can manage some control). Everyone else has their question marks, though it is still too early to say for sure.

    Drew Stubbs A+
    Sean Watson AA
    Chris Valaika AA
    Justin Reed A-
    Josh Ravin A-

    Devin Mesoraco A-
    Todd Frazier AA
    Kyle Lotzkar RK
    Zach Cozart A-
    Scott Carroll A+
    Neftali Soto RK

    Granted and I'll say it again it's a little too soon for this argument to be sure but this F.O. is not and should not be beyond reproach. Trust is given when trust is earned and although I trust them not to screw up royally I don't yet think they are the cat's meow.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  8. #52
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I think it's important given this discussion to note a few things. #1 being that although some prospects look good and some not necc. so good in this current regimes (sans Jocketty) time here none they have drafted have passed AA except Roenicke. Yes they have proven to be fair developers of talent but not necc. moreso.
    Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Josh Roenicke, Derrik Lutz, and Danny Dorn have all reach AA since being drafted in 2006. Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey could soon join them. There may not be a superstar in there but it has the makings of producing a couple starting position players, a stud reliever, and some solid depth for the bench which the Reds have lacked these past few years.

    The 2007 draft is also looking strong at this point. Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier are both performing well. Kyle Lotzkar was terrific between the GCL and Pioneer League last season. Scott Carroll has already reach High-A and could be a decent reliever down the road. Neftali Soto had a great debut last year and could be a steal in the third round. Evan Hildenbrandt hasn't pitched yet but he's got a good arm. Brandon Waring is hitting well in the MWL. There's a couple relievers drafted in the late rounds who are pitching well in Dayton.

    I think the previous regime did a fine job with the draft. Having seven players with potentially two more reaching AA within two years of getting drafted is pretty good IMO.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  9. #53
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Josh Roenicke, Derrik Lutz, and Danny Dorn have all reach AA since being drafted in 2006. Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey could soon join them. There may not be a superstar in there but it has the makings of producing a couple starting position players, a stud reliever, and some solid depth for the bench which the Reds have lacked these past few years.

    The 2007 draft is also looking strong at this point. Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier are both performing well. Kyle Lotzkar was terrific between the GCL and Pioneer League last season. Scott Carroll has already reach High-A and could be a decent reliever down the road. Neftali Soto had a great debut last year and could be a steal in the third round. Evan Hildenbrandt hasn't pitched yet but he's got a good arm. Brandon Waring is hitting well in the MWL. There's a couple relievers drafted in the late rounds who are pitching well in Dayton.

    I think the previous regime did a fine job with the draft. Having seven players with potentially two more reaching AA within two years of getting drafted is pretty good IMO.
    Maybe I'm just greedy but I wanna Votto/Bruce type every year.

    I think the Stubbs choice alone gives alot of people the right to wonder if perhaps Alonso was the right choice. I ain't saying I don't like Stubbs I have been one of his strongest supporters all along but it was certainly a very questionable selection.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  10. #54
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Maybe I'm just greedy but I wanna Votto/Bruce type every year.

    I think the Stubbs choice alone gives alot of people the right to wonder if perhaps Alonso was the right choice. I ain't saying I don't like Stubbs I have been one of his strongest supporters all along but it was certainly a very questionable selection.
    You're lucky to get a Jay Bruce every decade or 15 years. Those types of players don't come along very often. Todd Frazier is a guy who could project as a right handed Votto type. A .300 average type hitter with great plate discipline and .380+ OBP skills with 25-30 homerun power. Even those types of prospects are hard to find.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  11. #55
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    You're lucky to get a Jay Bruce every decade or 15 years. Those types of players don't come along very often. Todd Frazier is a guy who could project as a right handed Votto type. A .300 average type hitter with great plate discipline and .380+ OBP skills with 25-30 homerun power. Even those types of prospects are hard to find.
    Yeah I know but what is easy to see is these Red's don't have an all-around SS prospect to speak of. And from what I have read the only real question about Beckham's ability is his hands and that is it. According to this article which really highlights the pro's and cons well. He has one major con and that may be his hands which IMO is worth the risk. If his hands are terrible I can see why they passed if they are just questionable I don't know how they could pass.

    BA:

    8. Chicago White Sox
    Gordon Beckham, ss, Georgia
    B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 185. Age: 21.


    Scouting Report


    After he went undrafted out of high school, Beckham has improved as much as any player during his three years in college. He started from his freshman season at Georgia, and hit 12 home runs his first season to help the Bulldogs in the College World Series and land on BA's Freshman All-American team. His batting average and power numbers have increased each year since. He won the Cape Cod League home run title last summer, and has shown it was no fluke by hitting 22 homes so far this spring. He has been among the Division I leaders in batting, home runs and slugging percentage all season. At the plate, Beckham is a home run threat to all fields. He has powerful forearms and snap in his wrists that lead to his above-average bat speed. After being known as a hacker early in his college career he is now regarded as a professional hitter. He makes good contact and consistently squares up balls and uses the whole field. While no one questions his ability to hit, scouts are split on whether Beckham has the hands to stay at shortstop. He has the instincts and is athletic with enough range and arm strength to stick at the premium position.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 06-06-2008 at 05:22 PM.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  12. #56
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    However I am starting to see why they chose Alonso over Smoak. Bottom line Alonso doesn't swing at nearly as much crap as Smoak. And that difference is big enough to account for Smoak switch hitting and slightly better defense. And Crow too me is just too risky. So it comes down to Beckham vs Alonso and perhaps the Red's scouts felt Beckham lack of ideal hands makes him an OF which lessens his bat alot considering I doubt he has CF speed/range. Which if that's the case then Alonso is the BPA however if Gordon turns out to be an above avg all-around SS I am going to be hott!
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 06-06-2008 at 05:40 PM.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Welcome to the Alonso side. While I think Beckham will be solid, with Alonso's plate discipline and all other hitting skills I think his ceiling is much higher. Sure he could not reach up to his potential but, again b/c of the plate discpline, I still feel his floor is a lot higher than Beckham's. Beckham floor I see as being a utility guy while I see Alonso's floor as being an average starting 1b. So with the higher floor and ceiling its a no brainer, regardless of organizational need. As a side note as I mentioned earlier, Yonder's skills at the plate are very comparable to Albert Pujouls, low K's, High BB's, .400+ OBP, Hit for Average, with plenty of power, just from the left side. if Yonder he can continue what he does.......

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    However I am starting to see why they chose Alonso over Smoak. Bottom line Alonso doesn't swing at nearly as much crap as Smoak. And that difference is big enough to account for Smoak switch hitting and slightly better defense. And Crow too me is just too risky. So it comes down to Beckham vs Alonso and perhaps the Red's scouts felt Beckham lack of ideal hands makes him an OF which lessens his bat alot considering I doubt he has CF speed/range. Which if that's the case then Alonso is the BPA however if Gordon turns out to be an above avg all-around SS I am going to be hott!
    Plate discipline can be taught. Switch-hitting and gold-glove fielding abilities, not so much.
    FIRE DUSTY BAKER

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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Ok, I just want someone to compare Smoak and Yonder... Player to Player...

    The only thing I cannot figure out is why 4 other teams besides the Reds at #7 passed on him to let him go #12 to the Rangers...

    There has to be something or surely the White Sox or someone would have drafted him 8-11...

    All I have read is that Smoak is the better prospect of the 2... Ranking 3rd behind, Tim Beckham and Alvarez... So why did the Royals pass him at #3 all the way until the Rangers nabbed him at 12... Is there something that we just don't know? Cause it makes little sense to me.

  16. #60
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    Re: Where are the Reds Going?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    Plate discipline can be taught. Switch-hitting and gold-glove fielding abilities, not so much.
    Plate discipline being taught is a lot easier said than done. You don't often see guys make big strides in that department because its such a difficult thing to teach.


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