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Thread: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Yonder Alonso is a lefty hitting offensive machine. From what I have read he can really only play 1B. He may be on a fast track to the bigs.

    Adam Dunn is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He can only play LF.

    Joey Votto is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He plays 1B. I know he played some LF in AAA. He likely would be ok in LF. The old adage is even my grandma can play LF. He cannot play RF.

    Wait a minute. Isn't that 3 players for 2 positions. What gives?

    Scenario A: Walt wants to resign Dunn and will give him whatever he wants.
    Drafting Alonso makes no sense here. I guess Walt could trade one of the three once Alonso is ready but then why not just draft for need ( ie a lot of people thought we would go after a college SS ).

    Scenario B: Walt wants to trade Dunn before the deadline. If he can't get value then he'll let him go for drafts picks this offseason. He'll sign a stopgap free agent to play LF in 2009 then move Votto to LF when Alonso is ready.
    Walt has decided tying up so much money in Dunn isn't worth it.

    Scenario C: Walt wants to hedge his options. He'd like Dunn back for a reasonable amount of money/years but won't go nuts. If Dunn leaves he wants a fall back option to hopefully replace his offense by 2010.

    This has been going through my mind since we drafted Alonso.
    Does anyone else have thoughts or opinions about this?
    .

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    Yonder Alonso is a lefty hitting offensive machine. From what I have read he can really only play 1B. He may be on a fast track to the bigs.

    Adam Dunn is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He can only play LF.

    Joey Votto is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He plays 1B. I know he played some LF in AAA. He likely would be ok in LF. The old adage is even my grandma can play LF. He cannot play RF.

    Wait a minute. Isn't that 3 players for 2 positions. What gives?

    Scenario A: Walt wants to resign Dunn and will give him whatever he wants.
    Drafting Alonso makes no sense here. I guess Walt could trade one of the three once Alonso is ready but then why not just draft for need ( ie a lot of people thought we would go after a college SS ).

    Scenario B: Walt wants to trade Dunn before the deadline. If he can't get value then he'll let him go for drafts picks this offseason. He'll sign a stopgap free agent to play LF in 2009 then move Votto to LF when Alonso is ready.
    Walt has decided tying up so much money in Dunn isn't worth it.

    Scenario C: Walt wants to hedge his options. He'd like Dunn back for a reasonable amount of money/years but won't go nuts. If Dunn leaves he wants a fall back option to hopefully replace his offense by 2010.

    This has been going through my mind since we drafted Alonso.
    Does anyone else have thoughts or opinions about this?

    Scenario 4:

    Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Scenario 4:

    Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.
    1. do you think Votto can play RF?

    2. if Votto is as good in RF as Dunn in LF that would be one bad defensive outfield. i hope walt realizes one of the reasons he won in St Louis was that the Cards played GREAT defense.
    .

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Scenario 4:

    Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.
    Except against LHPs.

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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    What about the scenario that Dunn could be resigned and Votto moved? It doesn't seem likely, but it's definitely a possibility.

    It's a lot to speculate. Alonso could have a career ending injury in rookie ball this summer. He could also suck in the minors. Hell, Corey Patterson was the 3rd overall pick. There are just too many unknowns. I'm sure a plan is/will be in place, but a lot of things can happen.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.
    I don't think that anyone is making a decision based on a recently drafted prospect. I do think, however, that there is a strong possibility that the decision to draft Alonso was based upon events that the FO believes will happen.

    There is a difference.

  9. #8
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    I don't think this draft means anything regarding Dunn. Alonzo was one of the best bats in the draft, starting pitching was weak, the Reds smartly didn't waste their first pick on a reliever, and I guess they thought a bat was less risky than a tool box.

    That's my take anyway.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.

    I agree. I don't think Alonzo has anything to do with re-signing Dunn, unless you believe Alonzo will be ready to start in the major leagues next year. Alonzo is an investment in the future. Dunn's best years are right now.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Except against LHPs.
    Votto, Bruce and Dunn don't really seem to have issues hitting against lefties. Alonso, I can't really find splits for him but nowhere in his scouting report does it suggest he has big problems with lefties. Just because someone bats left handed doesn't mean they can't hit left handed pitching.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...rry&id=3428763

    The biggest decisions this winter will revolve around the corner outfield spots, at which Griffey has a $16.5 million club option awaiting him and Dunn is eligible for free agency.

    There are legitimate reasons to think the Reds might hang on to Dunn. Owner Bob Castellini is a Dunn admirer, and it wouldn't make a lot of sense for the Reds to sever ties with Dunn only to turn around and pursue a Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell. Dunn has averaged 41 homers and 100 RBIs per season the past four years and has a career on-base percentage of .382. You just don't replace that kind of production overnight.

    The contrasting view is that Dunn might be ready for a change of scenery at 28. He took an emotional hit when the Reds traded his buddy Kearns to Washington, and he's grown tired of the trade rumors that have swirled around him in recent years. Sources say that Dunn also was less than thrilled last year when Bill Cunningham, a local radio provocateur who works for the Reds' flagship station, said Dunn played left field as if he were "drunk," and the club didn't exactly rush to his defense.

    Dunn told the Reds that if he were going to sign an extension, it would have to be during spring training. That failed to materialize, and he's not interested in renewing talks or hashing out what-if scenarios now.

    "I worry about all that stuff when the time is right," Dunn said, "and right now the time isn't right."

  13. #12
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Votto, Bruce and Dunn don't really seem to have issues hitting against lefties. Alonso, I can't really find splits for him but nowhere in his scouting report does it suggest he has big problems with lefties. Just because someone bats left handed doesn't mean they can't hit left handed pitching.
    Since he is notorious for going to LF with power, I'd venture to say he handles LHPs well

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    1. do you think Votto can play RF?

    2. if Votto is as good in RF as Dunn in LF that would be one bad defensive outfield. i hope walt realizes one of the reasons he won in St Louis was that the Cards played GREAT defense.
    Its already a bad defensive OF. Votto is probably already better than the current version of Griffey as far as OF defense goes. As I said, its not my preference.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.
    So, on a mid-market team with a non-infinite budget, you think they're comfortable extending Dunn for 5-6 years at over $10m per, knowing full well they're also about sink $6-$8m in his replacement in the form of a signing bonus?

    I don't see it happening.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  16. #15
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    So, on a mid-market team with a non-infinite budget, you think they're comfortable extending Dunn for 5-6 years at over $10m per, knowing full well they're also about sink $6-$8m in his replacement in the form of a signing bonus?

    I don't see it happening.
    And who says thats a bad thing? Dunn is certainly a valuable player, but is he really worth 16 million a year over 4-5 years while playing left field? The only way I am paying Dunn anywhere near that kind of money is if its at first base and we know Dunn won't play there (and its not because he can't, its because he won't).


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