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Thread: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

  1. #16
    Member 11larkin11's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Dude, no offense... But Kepp is a Role Player at best... Hariston is hitting like.316 and was hitting .340 for the first 20 games he was here as well...

    Bako was hitting what? .370 at some point?

    Kepp is a fine hitter, but some people make him out to be Michael Young, which he is not... He is a guy that is going to hit .290-.300 and have gap power... Not a Starter... Unless he was playing for the Royals.
    Kepp is a career .320 hitter in the minors and .313 hitter in 3 years in the majors. He was leading this team in RBIs. He has OPSed over .800 this year and over .850 last year. His OBP last year was .400 and was .373 this year. Kepp is 28, Hairston is 32. Last year for Kepp was better than any year Hairston has had. And one thing you cannot measure in stats, Kepp is straight CLUTCH. I like Hairston and we should ride him while he's hot. But Kepp is a diamond in the rough and the best pure hitter on this team.
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  3. #17
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    Kepp is a career .320 hitter in the minors and .313 hitter in 3 years in the majors. He was leading this team in RBIs. He has OPSed over .800 this year and over .850 last year. His OBP last year was .400 and was .373 this year. Kepp is 28, Hairston is 32. Last year for Kepp was better than any year Hairston has had. And one thing you cannot measure in stats, Kepp is straight CLUTCH. I like Hairston and we should ride him while he's hot. But Kepp is a diamond in the rough and the best pure hitter on this team.
    Keppinger only played last year... 241 AB's and a .332 average... Before that with the Royals he hit .267 in 60 AB's and before that, he didn't play in the Majors in 2005, so for the Mets in 2004 he hit .284 in 116 AB's...

    So let me say this... Keppinger is not a Bad hitter. He is a contact hitter. He is a right handed Hatteberg... He has less that 1 year of major league experience all together... Only playing in 161 Games over "parts" of 4 different seasons hitting .313... Let him get a full season of 150+ games in 1 Full season before you start talking about CLUTCH and all this "S on the Chest" stuff you guys are rambling about...

    Jeff Keppinger is a servicable Major League Hitter YES... But not this super star Michael Young type "CLUTCH" player you are all making him out to be... He is a Role player getting time to play due to injuries...

    Would I rather have him starting ahead of Alex Gonzalez? Yes, cause I dislike AGon as a Baseball player... Would I prefer him over Michael Young? No...

    Would I want him as a reserve? Yes.

    Would I want him as a Starter? No.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    There's no bones about it, Keppinger is among the best contact hitters in all of baseball. I don't think that should be up for debate.

    In 2007, Keppinger was 5th in Contact%, behind, Castillo, Eckstein, Polanco, and Pierre.
    In 2008, Keppinger is 5th again, behind Izturis, Pierre, Castillo, and Theriot.

    That's not luck. That's a legitimate skill that's repeatable and projectable. Defensively, he's stretched big time as a SS. Offensively, he's just mediocre as a 3B. But put him at 2B, and I see Placidco Polanco clone. Everything in his major and minor league career suggests as much. His lack of opportunity at the major league level says more about teams overvaluing speed and undervaluing OBP from their middle infielders than about his abilities.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's no bones about it, Keppinger is among the best contact hitters in all of baseball. I don't think that should be up for debate.

    In 2007, Keppinger was 5th in Contact%, behind, Castillo, Eckstein, Polanco, and Pierre.
    In 2008, Keppinger is 5th again, behind Izturis, Pierre, Castillo, and Theriot.

    That's not luck. That's a legitimate skill that's repeatable and projectable. Defensively, he's stretched big time as a SS. Offensively, he's just mediocre as a 3B. But put him at 2B, and I see Placidco Polanco clone. Everything in his major and minor league career suggests as much. His lack of opportunity at the major league level says more about teams overvaluing speed and undervaluing OBP from their middle infielders than about his abilities.

    All those players you mentioned have played more than 1 full season of Baseball...

    Let me know when Kepp has put together 2-3 years of 140-150 Games... and had 550-625 AB's a year...

    Because he may be a good contact hitter... but lets let him do it year in and year out for "Full" years... Before we start ranking him against other hitters who have done it over 150 + games and 500-600 Ab's over their careers...

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    All those players you mentioned have played more than 1 full season of Baseball...

    Let me know when Kepp has put together 2-3 years of 140-150 Games... and had 550-625 AB's a year...

    Because he may be a good contact hitter... but lets let him do it year in and year out for "Full" years... Before we start ranking him against other hitters who have done it over 150 + games and 500-600 Ab's over their careers...
    I don't understand your point. Keppinger has over 3000 professional plate apperances across the minor and major leagues. Yes, he has not accumulated over 500 PA in a single major league season. But I fail to see your implication. Do you think Keppinger is going to wear down, dragging his performance with it? That he's a fluke and won't be able to sustain his abilities? I agree, more playing time will continue to clarify exactly what to expect, but he's done nothing to suggest what he's done so far is not indicative of what he's likely to do in the future. And we have no reason to believe that there's an underlying durability issue at play.

    In 2007, in addition to his 241 AB in Cincy, he hit .368/.424/.469 over 228 AB in Louisville. He has over 2000 minor league AB in which he's hit a collective .320/.373/.419. In his 565 major league at bats he's hit .313/.368/.441. So unless you have a specific reason to believe he's not capable of sustaining that level of performance -- or health, I just don't get your point.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #21
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    All Jeff Keppinger did was hit in the minors. Aside from his first season when he hit .276, he has hit .300 or better everywhere he has been. That has been for seven different teams in five different leagues. That has been for as few as 12 AB at a stop to as many as 450 AB at a stop. Same results everytime - .300 or better. In 2146 minor league ABs he has struck out just 137 times - or one every 15.7 ABs. Someone puts a gun to my head and says pick over or under .300 for Keppinger, I am picking over every time.

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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    You guys are talking about Minor league career numbers? How many players have failed to transition from the minors to the majors...

    And RedsmanRick, 3000 Pro plate appearances? Proffesional?> We all know he can hit, and he's a contact hitter? So what... HE hasn't done it year after year in the major leagues.... You come with me at 3000 Proffesional Plate apperances...

    With all due Respect... Give me a Break.

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    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    You guys are talking about Minor league career numbers? How many players have failed to transition from the minors to the majors...

    And RedsmanRick, 3000 Pro plate appearances? Proffesional?> We all know he can hit, and he's a contact hitter? So what... HE hasn't done it year after year in the major leagues.... You come with me at 3000 Proffesional Plate apperances...

    With all due Respect... Give me a Break.
    He has proven at every level that he can hit! If he came up and his numbers did not compare to his minor league numbers, then you could call him a AAAA player. However, his numbers have translated very well to the pros, and it is hard to call it a small sample size. He is the type of hitter this team needs at the top of the order.

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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Ok listen, or read... I am about done with this...

    I am not saying jeff Keppinger cannot Hit... or is not a contact Hitter...

    What I am saying is, he is a PART TIME PLAYER... Role Player... Bench Player...

    And he hasn't put together a Full Major league season at all yet to go off...

    He put up 241 AB's last year... ok... Not saying he can't hit...

    But I don't rely on him to be my flipping OFFENSE

  11. #25
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Ok listen, or read... I am about done with this...

    I am not saying jeff Keppinger cannot Hit... or is not a contact Hitter...

    What I am saying is, he is a PART TIME PLAYER... Role Player... Bench Player...

    And he hasn't put together a Full Major league season at all yet to go off...

    He put up 241 AB's last year... ok... Not saying he can't hit...

    But I don't rely on him to be my flipping OFFENSE
    Not every player on your team is going to be an all star. I don't get your assertion that Keppinger is not better than a PART TIME PLAYER. His major league career, albiet short, has pretty much followed what he did in the minors.

    I am curious as to WHY you think he is a part time player. I am also curious as to why you think a guy who is going to hit and hit often doesn't deserve a chance to play every day. Is it because he doesn't hit 40 HRs a season?

    No one is asking him to be your "flipping OFFENSE". No one person is responsible for the offense. Keppinger and his hitting style is a very very important part of the Reds offense.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Ok listen, or read... I am about done with this...

    I am not saying jeff Keppinger cannot Hit... or is not a contact Hitter...

    What I am saying is, he is a PART TIME PLAYER... Role Player... Bench Player...

    And he hasn't put together a Full Major league season at all yet to go off...

    He put up 241 AB's last year... ok... Not saying he can't hit...

    But I don't rely on him to be my flipping OFFENSE
    I agree that Jeff Keppinger is a role player. I don't expect him to ever make an all star team. As a SS, offensively his numbers look pretty good. As a 3B, his lack of power would probably put him in the lower 3rd of starting 3B in the majors. But....

    ... The role he can fill as a steady if not spectacular line-up presence who gets on base enough to lead-off while filling the 3B position adequately defensively is a role this team can use. If it allows EdE to be the centerpeice of a deal for a long-term solution in CF or at SS, then the team as a whole is much improved. Keppinger joins the Griffey, Dunn, and sometimes EdE and Votto group that forces the team to forsake defense in order to get offense in the line-up. There is too much of that. Moving him to 3B allows adequate defense with adequate offense at that position and opens SS for a better defensive alternative and make EdE expendable to acquire it. I think the team is better with a glove at SS who can hit a little and a 3B who is adequate an offense and defense than it is witha range challenged Kepp at SS and an erratic (offensively and defensively) but proise filled EdE at 3B.

    Sometimes to make the pieces fit you have to forego everything you want. I'd love to see EdE put it all together in Cincy, but the need for Kepp at the top of the order, the need for improved defense at SS, the organizational depth at 3B and the need to acquire more two way players suggest that the potential of EdE is best cashed in for a different position while choosing a fall back option that fills a needed role in his place at 3B.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    Ok listen, or read... I am about done with this...

    I am not saying jeff Keppinger cannot Hit... or is not a contact Hitter...

    What I am saying is, he is a PART TIME PLAYER... Role Player... Bench Player...

    And he hasn't put together a Full Major league season at all yet to go off...

    He put up 241 AB's last year... ok... Not saying he can't hit...

    But I don't rely on him to be my flipping OFFENSE
    First off all, get a hold of yourself buddy. I know message boards can be frustrating, but a little patience goes a long ways.

    Secondly, you seem to be making one of two arguments, one of which is circular, the other of which is not based in facts.

    One argument, which you seem to have made in your most recent post, is that because Keppinger has not ever been given 500+ PA in a single season at the major league level, that he is a part time player. As a definitional argument, I suppose one can't disagree. But prior usage patterns are hardly a good way to judge worthiness or else nobody could ever be a full time player because they would have had to be one first... an obvious ontological problem.

    However, if you mean to suggest that Keppinger does not play baseball well enough to merit a full time starter job, then I disagree with this assessment. You cite Bako and Hairston's inflated batting averages over a short period fo time. Yet both of these guys have substantial track records establishing a much lower level of performance, which suggests that their brief hot streaks were just that, temporary hot streaks. Keppinger has a track record of over 2200 minor league and 600 major league plate appearances suggesting that the performances we've seen from him are completely sustainable and founded in a pretty rare skill set.

    And given that, we can compare offensive his performance (.313/.368/.441) to players with similar skill sets and performance records to find comparable players, like Michael Young (.303/.348/.448, poor SS defense), Placido Polanco (.304/.349/.414, good 2B D), and Freddy Sanchez (.301/.339/.417, good 2B/3B D), and Mark Loretta (.297/.362/.399, good 2B/3B D, weak SS D).

    For reference, here are the average SS, 2B and 3B from 2007 and 2008:
    Code:
    Pos	Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
    SS	2008	.263	.319	.375	.694
    SS	2007	.274	.336	.418	.734
    
    2B	2008	.266	.332	.398	.730
    2B	2007	.277	.339	.417	.756
    
    3B	2008	.267	.338	.437	.774
    3B	2007	.273	.341	.442	.782
    Jeff Keppinger is a major league starting caliber 2B, without question. At SS, his bat is significantly above average, even if his defense is somewhat below. At 3B, where his defense plays better, his bat is merely average.

    In any case, I can understand your reticence to compare Keppinger to "established" players, guys who have been given full-time jobs and even made the occasional all-star team. But it's important not to confuse opportunity and recognition with actual ability. Keppinger has been grossly under-utilized over the last 3 or 4 years. It's also importance to understand that there's a significant amount of room between perennial all-star and backup. I understand the particulars of the Reds 25 man roster are such that he might best be utilized in a utility, but that doesn't mean his ability is less than that of a starting major leaguer.

    As for "rely(ing) on him to be my flipping OFFENSE", I don't think any single player should relied upon to be your offense. But so far as middle infielders go, Keppinger is better than most. And as far as our current 3B options go, EE isn't exactly lighting the world on fire. Nobody is saying that Keppinger should make $10M and bat cleanup - that clearly belongs the offensive dynamo Brandon Phillips (holder of an .807 OPS).
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-09-2008 at 04:45 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #28
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    First off all, get a hold of yourself buddy. I know message boards can be frustrating, but a little patience goes a long ways.

    Secondly, you seem to be making one of two arguments, one of which is circular, the other of which is not based in facts.

    One argument, which you seem to have made in your most recent post, is that because Keppinger has not ever been given 500+ PA in a single season at the major league level, that he is a part time player. As a definitional argument, I suppose one can't disagree. But prior usage patterns are hardly a good way to judge worthiness or else nobody could ever be a full time player because they would have had to be one first... an obvious ontological problem.

    However, if you mean to suggest that Keppinger does not play baseball well enough to merit a full time starter job, then I disagree with this assessment. You cite Bako and Hairston's inflated batting averages over a short period fo time. Yet both of these guys have substantial track records establishing a much lower level of performance, which suggests that their brief hot streaks were just that, temporary hot streaks. Keppinger has a track record of over 2200 minor league and 600 major league plate appearances suggesting that the performances we've seen from him are completely sustainable and founded in a pretty rare skill set.

    And given that, we can compare offensive his performance (.313/.368/.441) to players with similar skill sets and performance records to find comparable players, like Michael Young (.303/.348/.448, poor SS defense), Placido Polanco (.304/.349/.414, good 2B D), and Freddy Sanchez (.301/.339/.417, good 2B/3B D), and Mark Loretta (.297/.362/.399, good 2B/3B D, weak SS D).

    For reference, here are the average SS, 2B and 3B from 2007 and 2008:
    Code:
    Pos	Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
    SS	2008	.263	.319	.375	.694
    SS	2007	.274	.336	.418	.734
    
    2B	2008	.266	.332	.398	.730
    2B	2007	.277	.339	.417	.756
    
    3B	2008	.267	.338	.437	.774
    3B	2007	.273	.341	.442	.782
    Jeff Keppinger is a major league starting caliber 2B, without question. At SS, his bat is significantly above average, even if his defense is somewhat below. At 3B, where his defense plays better, his bat is merely average.

    In any case, I can understand your reticence to compare Keppinger to "established" players, guys who have been given full-time jobs and even made the occasional all-star team. But it's important not to confuse opportunity and recognition with actual ability. Keppinger has been grossly under-utilized over the last 3 or 4 years. It's also importance to understand that there's a significant amount of room between perennial all-star and backup. I understand the particulars of the Reds 25 man roster are such that he might best be utilized in a utility, but that doesn't mean his ability is less than that of a starting major leaguer.
    I don't want to debate this the rest of the year, but... listen, read, do what ya have to do... I am not tryin to be rude or anything...

    But you just broke out some STATS for guys who have been getting FULL major league years in... The only guy who comes close to being part timer is Loretta and even he has been mostly a starter throughout his career...

    You don't have to break out anymore charts or Levels or anything else...

    Jeff Keppinger is a back up, utility Infielder...

    Michael Young is a Stud offensive player who you compared Kepp too... Not even in the same Realm.

    Keppinger is a contact hitter, yes... He has a .313 average over 161 games...

    He is not a starter... Now, I am not saying he can't play 140 games for a team... He just isn't what you guys are saying...

    Jeff Keppinger is what he is... A good player. Not flashy, just a good player... He's just not an everyday player... Opportunity or not... 3,000 Proffesional AB's or not... He is never going to be the guy you all claim he is...

    He is just Jeff Keppinger. Oh, and when he puts together back to back .400 ob% - .300-15-80- 100 run- 200 hit (185 I'll give ya) 40 double seasons...

    Then you are correct and I am wrong... He can even bat.296 one year with 14 homers and 69 RBI and I will concede... Until then, when he compiles a couple FULL major league seasons of Productive numbers... Then I will concede... Jeff Keppinger hasn't even done it over 1 full major league season... I am not arguing it anymore... No matter how many graphs or stats you break out... They don't contain relevant information...

  15. #29
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    I don't want to debate this the rest of the year, but... listen, read, do what ya have to do... I am not tryin to be rude or anything...

    But you just broke out some STATS for guys who have been getting FULL major league years in... The only guy who comes close to being part timer is Loretta and even he has been mostly a starter throughout his career...

    You don't have to break out anymore charts or Levels or anything else...

    Jeff Keppinger is a back up, utility Infielder...

    Michael Young is a Stud offensive player who you compared Kepp too... Not even in the same Realm.

    Keppinger is a contact hitter, yes... He has a .313 average over 161 games...

    He is not a starter... Now, I am not saying he can't play 140 games for a team... He just isn't what you guys are saying...

    Jeff Keppinger is what he is... A good player. Not flashy, just a good player... He's just not an everyday player... Opportunity or not... 3,000 Proffesional AB's or not... He is never going to be the guy you all claim he is...

    He is just Jeff Keppinger. Oh, and when he puts together back to back .400 ob% - .300-15-80- 100 run- 200 hit (185 I'll give ya) 40 double seasons...

    Then you are correct and I am wrong... He can even bat.296 one year with 14 homers and 69 RBI and I will concede... Until then, when he compiles a couple FULL major league seasons of Productive numbers... Then I will concede... Jeff Keppinger hasn't even done it over 1 full major league season... I am not arguing it anymore... No matter how many graphs or stats you break out... They don't contain relevant information...
    Wow. Just wow. Clearly logic wasn't the way to go. You are saying that until he does it, he's not capable of doing it. I'm sorry, but that's wrong. Playing time and performance/ability are not the same thing. We'll have to agree to disagree. I'll just let it drop.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: I wouldn't be surprised if they try Yonder at 3rd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hondo View Post
    I don't want to debate this the rest of the year, but... listen, read, do what ya have to do... I am not tryin to be rude or anything...

    But you just broke out some STATS for guys who have been getting FULL major league years in... The only guy who comes close to being part timer is Loretta and even he has been mostly a starter throughout his career...

    You don't have to break out anymore charts or Levels or anything else...

    Jeff Keppinger is a back up, utility Infielder...

    Michael Young is a Stud offensive player who you compared Kepp too... Not even in the same Realm.

    Keppinger is a contact hitter, yes... He has a .313 average over 161 games...

    He is not a starter... Now, I am not saying he can't play 140 games for a team... He just isn't what you guys are saying...

    Jeff Keppinger is what he is... A good player. Not flashy, just a good player... He's just not an everyday player... Opportunity or not... 3,000 Proffesional AB's or not... He is never going to be the guy you all claim he is...

    He is just Jeff Keppinger. Oh, and when he puts together back to back .400 ob% - .300-15-80- 100 run- 200 hit (185 I'll give ya) 40 double seasons...

    Then you are correct and I am wrong... He can even bat.296 one year with 14 homers and 69 RBI and I will concede... Until then, when he compiles a couple FULL major league seasons of Productive numbers... Then I will concede... Jeff Keppinger hasn't even done it over 1 full major league season... I am not arguing it anymore... No matter how many graphs or stats you break out... They don't contain relevant information...
    So a guy has to be an all star to be an every day player? Guys that go .300/.400 with 15 HR, 80 RBI, 100 runs, 200 hits and 40 doubles, well those guys are very rare.

    That player is so rare that it has been done all of 5 times since 2000. Todd Helton (twice), Albert Pujols, Magglio Ordonez and Matt Holiday. Thats it. Pretty steep expectations don't you think?


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