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Thread: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

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  1. #1
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    Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    With the promotions of Bruce and Bailey as well as the draft, the ol' prospect list has some significant changes this month:

    GRADE A (in these guys' cases, it should be Grade A-)

    1. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AAA
    2. Todd Frazier 3B/LF 22 A
    3. Yonder Alonso 1B 21 --

    GRADE B

    4. Devin Mesoraco C 19 A
    5. Travis Wood LHP 21 AA
    6. Chris Valaika 2B/SS 22 AA
    7. Drew Stubbs CF 22 A+
    8. Juan Francisco 3B 21 A+
    9. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
    10. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AAA

    GRADE C

    11. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A
    12. Shaun Cumberland OF 23 AA
    13. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
    14. Jordan Smith RHP 23 AA
    15. Danny Ray Herrera LHP 23 AAA
    16. Sean Watson RHP 23 AA
    17. Justin Turner 2B 23 AA
    18. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AAA
    19. Ben Jukich LHP 25 AA
    20. Zach Cozart SS 22 A

    KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to rate)

    Juan Duran OF
    Kyle Lotzkar RHP
    Neftali Soto 2B
    Zach Stewart RHP
    Justin Reed OF

    ON THE RADAR

    Josh Ravin RHP
    Keltavious Jones OF
    Jeff Jeffords RHP

    DROPPED OFF THE RADAR
    Adam Rosales INF

    The biggest changes this month (other than the obvious graduations of Bruce and Bailey) are the introduction of Yonder Alonso, who could quickly become the #1 prospect with a quick signing/hot start in Dayton, and the meteoric rise of Devin Mesoraco, who has started hitting like a first round draft pick in Dayton. Given that it's only one month of good production, but if Mesoraco keeps hitting like this for the remainder of the season he will become a Grade A prospect. As for the current "Grade A" prospects Thompson, Frazier, and Alonso- none of the three is close (at this point) to the same caliber as previous Grade A guys like Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Bailey (hence the A-minus rating.) Zach Stewart could also quickly make a name for himself on the prospect list with a nice start to the season, although early reports have him destined for rookie ball after he signs. I'm looking forward to the debuts of Lotzkar and Soto coming up this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see either in Dayton by the end of the season.

    Imminent Promotions

    Due to the great number of promotions over the last few weeks, nobody strikes me as due for an imminent promotion.

    Guys that should be considered for promotion by the All-Star Break

    1. Danny Ray Herrera (had an impressive big league debut, should be back before long)
    2. Matt Maloney (he should be next in line to make a spot start at the big league level if needed)
    3. Ben Jukich (got shelled last outing, but should be in Louisville by next month)
    4. Shaun Cumberland (looks like he's about ready for Louisville)
    5. Todd Frazier (once he finds a position, he should be moved along quickly as long as he continues to hit)

    Guys that should be considered for promotion by August

    1. Drew Stubbs (starting to be now or never for Stubbs to start producing at a high level)
    2. Brandon Waring (as long as he can take some walks)
    3. Zach Stewart (no reason he can't end the year in Dayton to be on the fast track)
    4. Kyle Lotzkar (only if he shows good progress in Billings)
    5. Neftali Soto (ditto)

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-08-2008 at 12:03 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  2. #2
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Wow, it's not very often this happens, but I pretty much agree with everything you just typed. One thing: I think I like Dorn more...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  3. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    I think you are overrating Brandon Waring for starters. Massive power, but has a giant strikeout problem and doesn't walk too much. He has 1 tool thats above average and its power.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    I would think that if Valaika could get his OPS to.800+ (.790 now) and sustain that for a couple of weeks, he wold be warranted a promotion to AAA

  5. #5
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    I would think that if Valaika could get his OPS to.800+ (.790 now) and sustain that for a couple of weeks, he wold be warranted a promotion to AAA
    Wasn't he only recently sent to AA? I think I'd like to see him there a while longer first. He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    Wasn't he only recently sent to AA? I think I'd like to see him there a while longer first. He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.
    well he has had almost the same amount of AB's in AA as in A+, so given a few more weeks where he might be at 175-200 AB's, if his OPS is back to .800 I think it is warranted

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    I wouldn't think Francisco warrants a B grade just yet. He is still young for his level but he's going to run into a wall soon until he changes his approach and not just a little but alot.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.
    even if he is performing? Just cause his name is not Jay Bruce, doesn't mean he can't succeed at three levels in one year.

  9. #9
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by redhawk61 View Post
    even if he is performing? Just cause his name is not Jay Bruce, doesn't mean he can't succeed at three levels in one year.
    I realize that. But there is being aggressive and then there is being unrealistic. I don't think we as fans should come to expect a player a year to rise meteorically through our system.

    If Val can do it through the better part of July though, sure, push him up.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think you are overrating Brandon Waring for starters. Massive power, but has a giant strikeout problem and doesn't walk too much. He has 1 tool thats above average and its power.
    I hate to say it Doug, but that sounds like Fransico, so why is it he's getting a pass and not Waring? Plus waring plays a better 3B and is only a year older, considering Fransico has been in PRO ball longer, he's no where near a B for me.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thorn View Post
    I hate to say it Doug, but that sounds like Fransico, so why is it he's getting a pass and not Waring? Plus waring plays a better 3B and is only a year older, considering Fransico has been in PRO ball longer, he's no where near a B for me.
    Francisco is 20, Waring is 22. Francisco is a level ahead of Waring as well. The upsides of each isn't really close either. Francisco has a special bat and poor discipline but good defensive tools. Waring had an approach of swinging from the heels (and that is his own words) with a terrible strikeout problem at a level he is not young for. The two players strikeouts aren't really in the same category. Francisco, at a younger age and a higher level strikes out 21% of the time he steps to the plate. Waring, older and at a lower level is striking out in 30% of the time he steps to the plate. That said, I am not giving Francisco any type of favortism. His bat is much better than Warings but his plate discipline is at a downright scary place still.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Francisco is 20, Waring is 22. Francisco is a level ahead of Waring as well. The upsides of each isn't really close either. Francisco has a special bat and poor discipline but good defensive tools. Waring had an approach of swinging from the heels (and that is his own words) with a terrible strikeout problem at a level he is not young for. The two players strikeouts aren't really in the same category. Francisco, at a younger age and a higher level strikes out 21% of the time he steps to the plate. Waring, older and at a lower level is striking out in 30% of the time he steps to the plate. That said, I am not giving Francisco any type of favortism. His bat is much better than Warings but his plate discipline is at a downright scary place still.
    He's a year and a half older, not 2, he turns 21 in 13 days. Fransico K's less and BB's less but regardless of the comparison between the 2, Fransico's still no where near a B prospect. He's had time to work on his BB problem, I don't see the improvement.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by thorn View Post
    He's a year and a half older, not 2, he turns 21 in 13 days. Fransico K's less and BB's less but regardless of the comparison between the 2, Fransico's still no where near a B prospect. He's had time to work on his BB problem, I don't see the improvement.
    Year and a half is a whole lot of age for minor leaguers. Still, Francisco's potential is a whole lot more than that of Waring. I think Francisco's upside puts him at a B- prospect.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    I would keep Valaika in AA until at least July rolls around. Let him get used to the league a little more. If he continues killing the ball, then 3 more weeks isn't going to hurt his development to much at all.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- June Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I would keep Valaika in AA until at least July rolls around. Let him get used to the league a little more. If he continues killing the ball, then 3 more weeks isn't going to hurt his development to much at all.
    Thats what I am saying. He shouldn't be promoted now but, 4-6 more weeks, if he continues hitting isn't out of the question.


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