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Thread: Reds on the Road

  1. #1
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    Reds on the Road

    The Reds now lose constantly on the road and win usually at home. Something needs to be fixed. I'm sure there are many stats that tell the story.

    A couple of basics --

    Team ERA at home is 3.67 and on the road is 5.11.

    Team OPS is .789 at home and .708 on the road.


    If it's just the coziness of GABP, why is the pitching so much better at GABP? We might assume the opposite.

    I'd be interested in people breaking this down more precisely, if they have the information. Why this disparity?

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  3. #2
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    I'm not a huge believer in luck or randomness, but when it comes to home/road splits, I think it's mostly just that.

    Plus, I think defenses tend to play better at home in a park they're used to fielding. But that's conjecture.

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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Plus, I think defenses tend to play better at home in a park they're used to fielding. But that's conjecture.
    Bigger parks on the road mean larger OF expanses -- and the Reds OF does not cover a lot of ground.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #4
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Team ERA at home is 3.67 and on the road is 5.11.

    Why this disparity?
    Possible contributors to the disparity in team ERA.
    Catchers, Advance scouts, or advance scouting methods use.

    Code:
    NAME		GS	E	FPCT	RF	ZR	PB	CERA
    Paul Bako	42	3	.992	8.98	1.000	3	3.91 
    David Ross	17	2	.985	8.00	1.000	3	5.38 
    J. Valentin	5	0	1.000	9.37	1.000	1	5.40
    Totals		5	5	.991	8.76	1.000	7	4.44
    Still doesn't answer why though.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-09-2008 at 11:46 AM.

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Until and unless CERA can control for the quality of the pitchers caught, it really strikes me as a best case useless, worst case misleading statistic. It's right there with blaming Aaron Harang for his poor run support. That's not to say that catchers have no influence over pitcher performance, but it's a really, really poor way to measure their effect.

    As for home/road, It's been what 25 games at each place? A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Atlanta is even worse off

    25-11 - Home

    7-21 - Road

  8. #7
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.
    Yes, same with the catcher/era. "A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty masive impact", making their numbers somewhat bogus or misleading, I should say. I am going to look at the blowouts and suspects next i.e. the pitchers.

    I have no method or source to show any possible contribution to the pitching problems by scouting reports, catchers or the one calling the pitches, even though they can contribute to the problems. Frustrating that we always seem to have some gaps in our information while trying to find genuine answers.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-09-2008 at 12:13 PM.

  9. #8
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    As for home/road, It's been what 25 games at each place? A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.
    Not buying that. Team is 19-10 at home, 11-24 on the road. Not a function of a few blowout games or shutouts. Big performance difference between home and road.

    My guess is that some individuals have a big disparity in performance between home and road. Haven't checked.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-09-2008 at 12:13 PM.

  10. #9
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    It's right there with blaming Aaron Harang for his poor run support.
    Run support, tipping their pitches, stealing signs, advance scout reports, use and application of the information from the reports, calling of the pitches during the game, defensive lapses that lead to additional outs or additional pitches thrown, pitchers confidence, yes they each can possibly make contributions but, I can't measure the possible contributors to help gather any conclusions that might help answer the question of why the disparity. Even mechanics implying an affect on pitch execution, a batter can hit a well executed pitch from good mechanics and a team score runs to drive up the disparity.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 06-09-2008 at 12:29 PM.

  11. #10
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    from an offensive standpoint

    Code:
    player     home    road
    Phillips     827    790
    Encarnacion 704     791
    Griffey      747     786
    Votto       931      759
    Dunn        921      966
    Not much in the offensive numbers
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #11
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Most teams are not as good on the road than home....but this team is like two different ballclubs.

    These road trips are painful to watch. The homestands weren't much to write home about until last month.

    This team simply cannot perform on the road...it's pathetic.

  13. #12
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    It seems to me that the disparity league wide between home/away is larger than usual in 2008. I don't know what it is. Also seems to be more sweeps and fewer split series.

    As for our Reds I think their youth has something to do with it. Why they can't hit in ballparks like Citizens Bank in Philly is a mystery to me

  14. #13
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    IMO, there are a few factors going on.

    FCB hit one - but its true of most teams -the defense is used to playing in their own park. Plus the Reds OF particularly is better suited to the cozier confines of GAB than roaming bigger parks on the road.

    On the road the offense is hit by a double whammy -- low OBP, a product of the talent on the team which tends overall toward low BA sluggers and free swingers. Yes, with Dunn they draw a lot of walks, but with Adam's exception not many of these guys are patient types and with Kepp out only Bruce is a high contact rate hitter.

    Add to that they don't play long ball on the road at all - from a .452 SP at home to a putrid .381 on the road. Walks are constant but BA drops from .260 to .250 and as shown the slugging drops off a cliff.

    Result? 149 runs in 1400 PA road to 141 runs in only 1084 home PAs. .106 scoring per PA road. .130 scoring per PA home. That's per PA mind you - that's a tremendously significant difference.

    For pitching the stats reflect a similarity home and away in nearly every area but one --hits allowed. In fact the staff is marginaly better in most peripherals ON THE ROAD. Not what you'd expect to see with such a difference in home and road ERA.

    On the road the staff allows 1.15 hits per inning; at home just .091 hits per inning. That, of course, pushes the OBP and SP against up significantly on the road.

    Homers allowed, and walks -as a percentage of innings remain pretty stable - but on the road they allow a lot more ordinary singles and doubles than at home.
    2b/3B every 4.45 innings at home, every 3.61 innings on the road.

    They only allow a homer on the road every 7.05 innings LESS than the 1 in 6.85 innings at home.

    Walks -they allow one every 2.61 innings road and 1 per 2.64 innings at home. Notice the staff actually pitches better relative to homers and walks on the road.

    Ks? 8.17 per 9 road, 8.02/9 road.

    The conclusion, to me, is that the defense may play a pretty significant role viz lack of range on the road. You can't place all the blame for the extra hits on the defense but I think it is a significant factor in the staff's road performance.

    Other peripherals -BB rate, Ks, homers allowed -the staff performs marginally better on the road. Why are they giving up the ordinary 1/2 base variety of hits at such a higher clip then when on the road?

    Pressure pitching behind with an anemic offense lending little run support probably contributes, and the defense has to be a big factor. Dig deeper than just the OPS/SP differential home/away and a picture emerges of a staff beleagured by poor defense and poor run support on the road.

  15. #14
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Bigger parks on the road mean larger OF expanses -- and the Reds OF does not cover a lot of ground.
    What is the park factor as it contributes to ERA, or how do we determine or measure the range factor of the outfielders inability to get to certain balls that another or a better fielder might get to and it's influence on ERA? Home park vs away park?

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    Re: Reds on the Road

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    It seems to me that the disparity league wide between home/away is larger than usual in 2008. I don't know what it is. Also seems to be more sweeps and fewer split series.
    It really does. The Red Sox are +20 at home, -6 on the road. The Braves are +14 at home, -14 away. The Cubs are +18 at home, -2 on the road. It's nuts.
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