What's wrong? Our Owner compelled our former General Manager to shelve the rebuilding process multiple times, in favor of completely futile and absurdly timed bids to immediately contend. Our owner hired a dreadfully miscast 'win now' name manager, and prematurely removed our GM a month into a new season, both by virtue of the assertion that he intends to win immediately.
How does he now go about spinning the concept of a returning to a rebuilding phase, given his obtuse bluster about winning now, without any regard for the facts on the ground? How do you go about enacting that rebuild with a Dusty Baker presiding, and a GM in Jocketty who is more accustomed to putting contenders over the top than in redesigning last place teams whose future core is mostly below 26 years of age? How do we know that the Owner can stay out of the way long enough for any renovations to take place, even if the aforementioned leadership can start moving the roster in the right direction?
This team is youthful, but there is plenty of talent present. They need some patience, proper utilization, proper development, and for the right acquisitions and subtractions to be made in building a more coherent roster between now and 2009. Do we have the right owner, GM, or coaching staff to provide any of those qualities?
The only one I have any faith in is Walt, but even he seems better suited for a different manner of General Management. Given the way this team is playing, he might need to start making some major moves sooner rather than later.
Last edited by Stormy; 06-12-2008 at 12:45 AM.
There is a good chance the team could be worse, if that money (whatever the number is) is spent on less productive players.
But, if you have any faith in Jocketty as a GM, you have to at least allow the possibility that he can find a more productive (or, if you prefer Moneyball lingo, efficient) way to spend that dough, even if it's not contained in a single transaction. Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but I have a feeling he's going to try.
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible
Remember the 2005 Reds. You know, the bunch that scored 820 runs? What's the difference?
Well, the 2005 Reds scored a lot of runs, but the pitchers gave up a lot of runs. they averaged scoring over 5 runs a game, but gave up about 5.5 runs a game. They won 75 games.
As I mentioned in tonight's game thread, the Reds are on track to score 725 runs this year. The pitching's better by nearly a run a game, but the Reds are scoring less. The result is the same. They are on track to win 75 games.
Look at the two lineups showing hits, avg., and OBP. I multiplied the 2008 stats by 2.41 to show a full season:
The difference can be seen at first base (though I think Votto will surpass Casey soon), LF (Dunn is just not having a very good year), SS (Lopez had a monster year, but Keppinger could too without the punch), and C (before the fall of Larue, he was a pretty good hitter).Code:2005 2008 1B - Casey - 165H .312 .371 1B - Votto - 137H 27 HR .275 .349 2B - Aurila - 120H .282 .338 2B - Phillips -166H 29HR .268 .315 3B - Randa- 96H .289 .356 3B - EdE - 130H 24HR .241 .327 SS - Lopez - 169H .291 .352 SS - Kepp - 119H 8HR .324 .373 LF - Dunn - 134H .247 .387 LF - Dunn - 110H 39HR .235 .405 CF - Junior - 148H .304 .369 CF - Bruce - 164H 21HR .387 .479 RF - Kearns- 93H .240 .333 RF - Junior - 140H 17HR .258 .363 C - LaRue - 93H .260 .355 C - Bako - 122H 17HR .238 .320
For this team to finish above .500, Dunn, Griffey, Edwin, and the catching position must start hitting the ball. If we could combine 2005's hitting with 2008's pitching, well, then we'd have something.
in 2006 the reds were in the division race despite a .500 record. this fooled a lot of people into thinking we were contenders. the cards won the division that year with 83 wins. this was a fluke. for the reds to be real contenders they have to build a team that can wins 90+ games. we are far far from that.
plus the high minors are still fairly devoid of help except for a couple pitchers.
the big league team has a lot of holes. imo the reds would be served to really rebuild. keep the youth plus harang ( unless overwhelmed ) and trade off the other vets.
Re my earlier posts regarding Guillen and Hamilton: the message seems to be that if you're the best player on the Reds what you can clearly expect is to be traded. Is that it? Does that sound like a formula for winning?
Clearly the rotation needs at least one more pitcher: should we move Bruce?
The Reds are far too dependent on the home run ball. They have won a grand total (I believe--last I checked) of 2 games this season where they haven't had a home run. 2!!
What's wrong? The pitching and the Manager. This hasn't somehow changed from the beginning of the season.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
Managers have come and gone yet the team has still played the same frustrating type of baseball. I wonder if the problem lies with the leadership of the club. I wonder if the problem lies with Dunn and Jr. I don't even mean to call them out but they are what they are. They are not fiery locker room leaders. They are two guys who look content just going out there and playing baseball day in day out whether they win or lose. There is nothing wrong with that, but when players look up to you as the leaders of the clubhouse there is where a problem can develop.
When you watch this version of the Reds you see a team that plays with no intensity. You see the same mistakes being made and of what you can see its like the team just recognizes the mistake and says "go get em next time tiger". I can't remember the last time you saw a mistake being made and it looked like the Reds gave a damn. Cueto had a rough outing out there last night but I give the kid credit. He didn't have his stuff and after the 1st inning he gutted out 4 more innings of one run ball. After the 5 run first did the offense go up to Cueto and say "don't worry about it we will get them back" nope the offense went out there and got 3 hits in 9 innings off a pitcher who averages <6 innings and gives up more than a hit an inning.
I am not advising someone taking a bat to a water cooler or going balistic on the field but it sure would be nice to see some emotion out there on the field. My fear is that when you see this lackluster game being played year after year after year your players begin to accept that as the norm. The worst thing that could happen to this club is for Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Bailey, etc. to accept and embrace that method of baseball. I really think this team needs to start anew. I think Jr, Dunn, and even EE need to be moved and to start over. I think its time to change the atmosphere and face of Reds baseball.
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