Originally Posted by Ohioballplayer
:deadhorse
PEACE
-BLEEDS
:deadhorse
PEACE
-BLEEDS
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
What radio station told you this? Dunn is an average fielder. He makes me nervous when there is a had hit ball in his direction, but he is far from the black hole in left field people like to make him out to be.
Just signed up... First Post... Be easy...
Adam Dunn is essentially a "1" tool player... His biggest asset: Plus Power. He does not hit for average, does not field well, does not throw well, and does not run well.
For a team like the Reds to invest 1/5th of its entire payroll (15m a year on a 75m payroll) on a ONE tool player is to me, beyond belief. It severely hampers their ability to sign their younger, more talented, and diversly tooled players.
Now, On a team with a 150m+ payroll, He makes much more sense because the team can not only afford him, but due to having much more payroll flexibility can sign and surround him with players that can make up for his negatives.
Due to having a small payroll, the Reds need to build young and from within, and shipping Dunn off for younger, cheaper, and more diverse players (contact, speed, glove, pitching, etc) makes much more sense than hampering payroll.
High OBP, high OPS, 100 runs, 100 rbis, 100 BBs, 40 HRs. That's one tool?
Plus Power may very well result in similar numbers like the ones posted...
But Scouts' five tools for measuring a player are: Power, Speed, Contact, Fielding, Arm.
Adam Dunn is highly skilled in ONE of those. Albert Pujols is very highly skilled in 3.(Power, Contact, Fielding)
Simply put, Adam Dunn is not anywhere near worth 1/5th of the Reds Payroll.
Welcome and I agree 110%
When I see the 2016 Reds, I see a 100 loss team and no direction.
Damn good 1st post. You absolutely hit the nail on the head mentioning payroll. And I agree that despite "High OBP, high OPS, 100 runs, 100 rbis, 100 BBs, 40 HRs" he is a one tool player. Hitting for power constitutes a tool, the ability to take a walk does not. And it is also imperative that this fact gets mentioned, Adam Dunn's lifetime batting average is .248 and it's .234 this season. Mention the 40/100/100 numbers all you want , but Adam Dunn has shown a complete inability to put the bat on the ball on a regular basis. With his lack of skills in the other areas of his game, for the long term the Reds absolutely should try to get Matt Kemp to replace him.
Yes, that's true. But like I said, going for Cordero had the added benefit of HURTING one of our division rivals. That's nothing to sneeze at. The Brewers were supposed to be right in the thick of things with the Cubbies this year, that hole at the back of their pen is a MAJOR reason why they're struggling. The biggest reason IMO.
Considering how he's used...yep. I'm not saying he's not an asset. He is. I'm saying that he does NOT fit with the roster we currently have. We don't have other powerhitting guys who hit for average to hit around him. His walks are most often wasted. He comes up with men on base quite a bit. If he knocks them in with a dinger, great. But his other most common hitting results don't help us in that situation. A walk or a strikeout. The most frustrating part about Adam is his lack of agression at the plate. He's got a great eye, I think everyone agrees with that. He wouldn't rack up as many BB's as he does if he didn't have great plate discipline and a good eye. It's his failure to make contact. Not just putting the ball in play, but just making freaking contact. If he could do that on a consistant basis he'd be a MUCH more valuable asset.
As it stands now, if we sign Dunner to a LTC, we'd have to make other changes to the roster to make it work. Multiple changes. The other option is to move him for another OF who can fill the void we have in our team. Defense and hitting for consistant average. I know a lot of people here are sabermetric-fanatics, but the good ole' fashioned batting average tends to get overlooked here. On base percentage is all fine and good. But HITS are what knock in runs and keep rally's going, not walks and K's. So if we keep him, we simply HAVE to find more bats to fit around him and better defense to play around him. And the LTC would have to be somewhat reasonable. A huge contract for a 1-tool player will decimate this franchise for a decade.
You can have your singles hitters. I'll take the run producers.
Also, the ability to take a walk is not considered a "tool" because it has little to do with physical talents. It is a skill, and a very valuable one at that. Fewer walks equals more outs.
FIRE DUSTY BAKER
ADOPT THIS SIGNATURE IN SOLIDARITY!!!
So Albert Pujols is a perennial GG 1st Baseman??!?! Sure he's a 2 tool player, but he's nowhere near a 3 or 4/5 tool players.
And besides, it's a SCOUTING tool, not a measure of anything of great importance at the ML level. For example, Corey Patterson was considered a 4 tool player - Power, Contact, Fielding, Arm.
Does that make him better than Dunn? NOT EVEN CLOSE.
At the ML level all you care about is PRODUCTION - and for that you look at OPS, HR's, RBI's, R's, and yes BB. Guys without great Defensive prowess - read: Fielding and Arm - get plopped in LF and 1B respectively. Nobody really values SPEED anymore unless you're talking about CF-ers and/or lead-off guys. You won't find any of those in LF or 1B.
And again with the Payroll BS? It's a lame excuse, that isn't based one iota in reality. Using that logic, we could NEVER get any of the top 20 players in baseball because we can't afford them, period. SO, you get a Catch-22 with every guy ever to wear a Reds Uniform who ever gets to any level of production above "Average". Complete and Utter nonsense. But, eventually everyone who ever argues against Dunn has to go there, because their other arguments get refuted.
PEACE
-BLEEDS
Last edited by BLEEDS; 06-12-2008 at 04:56 PM.
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
Oh wow, and what do you do to replace this vagabond player named Adam Dunn?
Look, the guy gets on base... His OB% is always around or above .400
So for you stat guys that stay up all night looking up WORP and Doubles per Inning with 1 or more outs... Dunn should be a Moneyball player for you...
Hey listen... Dunn is a good player... Why don't you guys want to get rid of the Pattersons, Bako, Valentin, Ross, Hariston, Phillips, Edwins, Alex Gonzalez of this team, and replace them before we go getting rid of Adam Dunn...
Not too mention the other guys like Stanton and Hattteberg who have already been let go...
Another fallacy - the rest of the Team SUCKS, so we should undervalue Dunn. Yeah, it's his fault that "his walks are wasted". GREAT ARGUMENT!!!
OPS is valued on every other Team in the Majors - but not the Reds!!! Perhaps the answer is - don't hurt yourself now - GET BETTER PLAYERS TO SUPPORT HIM!!! Nah, let's get Norris HOpper, then they'll pitch to him - hope his SINGLES don't get "wasted".... :thumbdown
Oh, like Brandon Phillips. He's aggressive, and puts the ball in play A LOT - usually a slow roller to SS for the patented Double-Play. He leads the team easily, and among the LEAGUE LEADERS in Double-Plays. Surely that is better than walks or strikeouts. Another HUGE fallacy.
NEXT!!!
PEACE
-BLEEDS
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
I like this BLEEDS guy...
BLEEDS, you are correct, the ney-sayers always go back to old faithful... 1/5 of the Payroll...
And yeah, lets put Hopper in Left Field and Rock ON! Not...
If this team lets Dunn go, it will be that much further from being a contender...
Did I say that? No. I'm saying that if we do keep Dunn (and I'd be fine with that) that we'd have to make multiple changes to make the roster work around him. As it is now, his walks ARE wasted. And no, that's not Dunn's fault. I'm not suggesting it is, a good portion of that blame falls on Dusty and his failure to recognize the OBP of Dunner and hitting him higher in the order. The question isn't whether Adam's a good player or not or how we "value" him, but whether we should sign him or not. Despite what many here say, that decision is anything but a "no-brainer". His contract is going to be huge no matter who it's with. And you can try to spin this any way you want to, but he IS a one-trick pony. He's just damned good at that one trick.
As for Brandon, he's a very valuable player on this team. However, he IS being used improperly. That's fairly obvious. Even if Brandon couldn't hit a lick, he's a valuable player for his defense alone. But he's got better than average power, he'll hit for a considerably better average than Dunn ever will, and he runs the bases VERY well. His propensity for the DP is a major thorn in our side, but batting him in the proper place would minimize that. Hitting him cleanup is simply stupid when facing a righty. Not to mention that he should be moved around more than any other player (up or down in order) in terms of who he's facing (righty or lefty). Moving Brandon higher up in the order or much lower in the order would suit his skills better. But putting the ball in play is never a bad thing. Do that consistantly and you'll find success more than enough. Sometimes hitting into DP's is just bad luck. Against righty's though, it's usually just a bad approach for him.Oh, like Brandon Phillips. He's aggressive, and puts the ball in play A LOT - usually a slow roller to SS for the patented Double-Play. He leads the team easily, and among the LEAGUE LEADERS in Double-Plays. Surely that is better than walks or strikeouts. Another HUGE fallacy.
NEXT!!!
PEACE
-BLEEDS
However, for both Brandon and Adam...I place a large portion of thier flaws at the feet of thier hitting coach. Changing your approach at the plate in certain situations is one of the easiest things to do. Swinging at the first pitch against a young struggling pitcher who's having trouble finding the strike zone? Both of these guys do that on a consistant basis unfortunately. That's something that a good hitting coach would be drilling into their heads daily.
Regardless, I like both players and would be perfectly fine if both stayed long term. But depending upon who goes and who stays...that dictates what we have to do to build things around them.
Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 06-12-2008 at 05:46 PM.
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