Don't forget the second half of his 30/30 accomplishment: steals.Originally Posted by Lockdwn11
Well-rounded ball player.
Don't forget the second half of his 30/30 accomplishment: steals.
Well-rounded ball player.
I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.
Good point I(heart)freel
And Phillips is a plus defender.
When I see the 2016 Reds, I see a 100 loss team and no direction.
I don't discount the positives of walking and not making outs. But I refuse to believe that people here would prefer a walk to a hit. I simply flat out refuse to believe that Reds fans are that blindingly dumb. Yes, SOME singles don't move runners around. However, the large majority of hits (ANY hits, not JUST singles) WILL move runners around and will score a good portion of them. Walks DON'T. I'm not saying that what Dunn does isn't valuable. It is. But if he were even just SLIGHTLY more aggressive at the plate, he'd be more productive. Working the count is fantastic and I'd love to see more of our players do it regularly. But the point to working the count is to force the pitcher to give you a pitch you can hit OR force him into a walk. Dunn doesn't do this. He forces a pitcher into a walk, or he bails them out with a strikeout. I don't want him to get aggressive to the point where he swings at bad pitches, but he will regularly go down looking instead of at least swinging. That's a passive approach.
But back to the hit versus a walk issue. I'd love to see you sabermetric fanatics put together some numbers of how productive a walk is compared to a single. Both get a man on base, both continue an inning. But what's the percentage of singles that DON'T move a runner more than one base. Or what about when it's a single and a runner is already in scoring position. You really want your walk then?
I'm not trying to say that Batting Average is a more or less useful tool than OBP or SLG or whatever. I'm just saying that BA gets overlooked by sabermetric fans and that it IS still a useful tool...just in a different way. Walks are great, hits are MUCH, MUCH better. Whether they come from Norris Hopper or Adam Dunn. I'll take the hit.
Excellent question.
Based on historical stats, most Saber guys conclude that a walk has been worth about 2/3 of a hit in terms of runs produced. That is a broad generalization, and is not context specific. This is why OBP needs to be understood in terms of how it is reached. Two players with the same OPB can produce very different run estimates. The one with more hits will produce more runs.
This site gives some explanation.
http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/200...mation_27.html
I am still waiting for an analysis of the difference between a hit and walk with men on base and with RISP in terms of run production. I think Saber guys are afraid of the results they might find.
Hits are better then walks, nobody should contest that point.
However, the value difference between a hit and a walk absolutely pales in comparison to the difference between a walk and making an out. The single most important thing you can do at the plate to score runs is avoid making an out. You only get 27 of them.
People in general are not overvaluing walks compared to hits, they are undervaluing walks compared to outs.
As far as the relative value of a walk to a hit, all that work has been done should you care to research it, and it is incorperated into saber stats like runs created. 757690 has got you started.
Why should they be afraid? For every guy trying to make walks and Adam Dunn look good, there is a guy who doesn't give a damn who Adam Dunn is or how he scores runs. I doubt there is a conspiracy to make walks look better then they are. You're paranoid:
Last edited by OUReds; 06-16-2008 at 07:16 PM.
I agree, 757690. I just find it frustrating that everyone (saber-ites...for lack of a better term) touts Dunn as an elite offensive player because of his excellent OBP. But what would you rather have, a high OBP guy where his OBP is mostly walk-driven...or batting average-driven? Me, I'll take the batting average driven OBP any day of the week. So, say what you want about Norris Hopper (not you...others), but don't compare him to the Paul Janish's and Corey Patterson's of the world. Yes, he's got similar power to Janish (or lack thereof) but he DOES generate OBP via a high batting average, he's got plus-speed and he's one hell of a bunter which makes him a valuable 4th outfielder due to his pinchhitting/sac bunt usefulness.
So, what exactly makes Dunn an elite hitter? I guess that would be my next question. Because he easily generates 80% of his stats during 20% of the season during his hot stretches. But the rest of the season, he's a black hole in the lineup. Is it his OBP? Is it his 40 hr / 100 rbi / 100 runs / 100 bb / 100 k's? Because I don't view him as an elite hitter in the NL. His lack of consistancy alone should disqualify him from elite status. And say what you want about batting average guys, but it's batting average that shows you how consistant a hitter is at the plate IMO.
But again, are we looking at outs in the same way? Dunn's outs tend to be strikeout based. If they were deep flyouts, I'd be fine with them. As those will have a moderate chance to move runners up or even score them via the sac. fly. But his consistant failure to put bat on ball is his biggest fault as a hitter. His lack of aggression at the plate makes him fall well out of the elite catagory. Putting the ball into play consistantly while maintaining a patient approach is what we want to see. Not just watching them sail past him.
Last time I mentioned wanting Dunn to just put the ball in play, people started spouting back to me stuff about Brandon Phillips and his hitting into double plays as "just putting the ball in play". I'd take Phillip's approach over Dunn's any day of the week (if he would just be a bit more patient and not swing at the first pitch so often). He's aggressive and tries to make something happen. Put some pressure on the defense instead of leaving the decision up to the Umpire's strike-zone.
Yes, hits are better than walks and walks are better than outs. But if you're already working the count...stay aggressive and put the ball in play. Maybe I'm alone in hating seeing Dunn strike out looking after taking a pitcher to a 10-12 pitch at bat. I'd certainly hope I'm not.
Because hitters with plate diecipline are, ironicly, more consistent. When Dunn is slumping he still provides value because he is still getting on base and avoiding walks (as opposed to being a "black hole"). Patience doesn't slump.
When someone with a BA driven OBP slumps, he's just making outs period. What's more, for various reasons you are free to research under the heading BABIP, history shows us that, in general, a high OBP% driven by BA is not sustainable long term. In essence, it's not batting average, but plate discipline that shows how consistent a hitter is at the plate.
As has been answered many, many times in every Dunn thread, Dunn is an elite hitter because he gets on base (avoids outs) and collects lots of bases over a course of the season (hits for power).
Last edited by OUReds; 06-16-2008 at 07:44 PM.
Yes, strikeouts adversely affect run production, and are factored into saber equations. They just don't affect production as much as people THINK they do.
Edit: As far as Dunn vs Phillips, I guess I don't understand why it has to be a competition? Different hitters have different approaches at the plate, the game would be far less enjoyable if everyone hit the same way. Objectively, Dunn is a much better offensive player (7.8 RC/27 vs 5.0 RC/27), but Brandon playes a premium defensive position and plays is absolutely beautifully.
Last edited by OUReds; 06-16-2008 at 08:09 PM.
Theoretically, that's great. But that's not what Dunn does. When Dunn slumps, he does NOT get walks still. He's striking out MORE. A larger portion of Dunn's walks come when he's NOT slumping and pitchers are pitching around him (and the occasional intentional pass). And when that starts happening, they come in bunches. Multiple times in a short number of games. But when he goes into his prolonged slumps, he's simply not getting on base at all. Care to recall how many times you've seen Dunn have a 4 strikeout game? Or 10 k's in a 3 game period? Dunn is an all or nothing hitter. But the problem is that he generates his production in a short period of time...and over the course of the season that means it impacts FEWER games. His total numbers are great, but they affect fewer wins.
And players who hit for high averages are also usually patient hitters as well. When they slump...they are also having quality at bats and getting the occasional walk too.
And lastly, walks don't generate runs. They generate the opportunity for your fellow teammates to generate runs. An elite hitter doesn't just say "well, the next guy will knock us around". An elite hitter stays aggressive at the plate and puts pressure on the defense. Hit the ball hard into play often enough and you'll get more than your fair share of hits...and a good portion of those will NOT just be singles. Dunn's power is wasted if he's not putting the bat on the ball.
Since 2004, 28 full months of baseball, Dunn has been under a .350 OBP only 5 of those months. Three of those 5 months he posted OPB of over .340. Dunn is the model of consistency when it comes to getting on base.
As far as saying "walks don't generate runs", that's semantics. Walks help create runs. If Dunn walks and Votto homers two batters later, didn't Dunn's walk "generate" one of those runs? Does Votto get all the credit for both runs? Doesn't Dunn get credit for, ya know, knocking in 100 runs a year himself.
I know Dunn doesn't create runs the way you want him to, but why does it matter HOW he does it? Isn't that he does it enough?
Using BP's CAREER YEAR is nice, but I was talking on average. How about 2006:
2006:
Dunn: 131 hits + 112 BB = 246
BP: 148 hits + 35 BB = 183
That difference is 63
what's 63 + 20 totaled, divided by 2? 41.5. That's called "on average". Of course BP needed 650 AB's compared to Dunn's 522 to get within 20 in 2007, but whatever....
And yes, the "Official" baseball statistic for "Total Bases" does not include walks. I was not referencing only hits-produced bases, but walks as well.
Those numbers?::
2007:
Dunn: 390
BP: 348
That difference is 42
2006:
Dunn: 387
BP: 264
That difference is WAY too much to calculate with piddies, so I can understand you not including it - it's 123.
Of course I was mentioning "~" which means approximate, and of course this is in terms of "average", which is for the following past two years:
2007:
hits+walks: 41.5 per year
Total Bases+walks: 84 per year.
Also, of course, you have to consider games played and AB's vary - especially between guys who bat higher in the lineup - being BP for some ridiculous reason.
Might be most simple to look at their OBP and SLG if you want to compare apples to apples.
Dunn's OBP is about .380 compared to BP's .320 (which is being generous in only including his last 3 years) - which is about 60 points difference. Using ONLY 550 as a comparison - you get 33. So excuse me, he only gets OB about 33 more times than BP - all things being equal.
Total Bases? Slugging is about a 55 points difference as well (only over the last 3 years, which is giving BP WAAAAy too much credit, again), so good for about 30 additional bases
Walks - on average Dunn gets about 94 pts more per AB in walks, so about 52 more walks per 550 AB's, giving you TOTAL PRODUCTION of about 82 TB's + Walks.
When you consider that BP's Batting average is a whopping 26 pts higher than Dunn's over the last 3 years, that's about an average of 14 hits more per 550 AB's. That's LESS than 1 per every 10 games
NOW, when you consider that Dunn gets on base more often - meaning gets OUT less - at a pace more than DOUBLE that at 60, that means that BP gets out 33 more times per year than Dunn - or MORE than once more often every 5 games - or TWO times every 10 games. And, more than likely, one of those outs is a Double Play. Then tell me who is more PRODUCTIVE.
PEACE
-BLEEDS
Last edited by BLEEDS; 06-17-2008 at 12:20 AM.
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
I went back two year because I feel that it was the best way to go because BOTH player are in thier prime 06 was Brandon first full year in the Majors so I didn't feel that was fair but have at it.
NAH, just use ONE year, which happens to be his best year, and call it statistically significant.
I mean, 149 games and 536 at-bats for a 25 year-old who's been in MLB for 5 years shouldn't be considered now should it? How about we just compare Brandon's 2007 stats to Dunn's 2008 June?!?
PEACE
-BLEEDS
I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008
Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009
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