The seventh through 10th picks in the 2008 draft all will become their club's No. 1 prospect. The pure hitting of first baseman Yonder Alonso (Reds) pushes him past outfielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop Todd Frazier.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...08/266307.html
not subscription so everyone should be able to read it
I still think the Alonso pick was a great pick. Best talent available.
Rotoworlds take on Alonso...
Didn't realize he struggled so much against lefties.
6. Yonder Alonso – 1B, Reds – 1.7 (7th)
Also one of the best bats in the draft, Alonso broke out with a .376/.519/.705 mark that included 18 homers and an incredible 31/64 K/BB as a sophomore for Miami. He followed it up with a very balanced and impressive showing in the Cape Cod League, batting .338 (third best in the league) with a league-leading .468 on-base percentage, 12 doubles, and four homers. Alonso kept the hit parade coming by batting .367 and smacking 23 homers this spring, along with a whopping 74 walks compared to just 32 strikeouts.
The left-handed hitting Alonso looks bigger than his 6'2", 215-pound frame, but he's more of a pure hitter than a power threat. Alonso is able to muscle balls out with a metal bat, but his approach means he's more of a 25-homer, 40-double type of threat with wood. That he consistently struggled with college left-handers and posted a very mediocre .227/.410/.467 line against them this year is concerning, but that he demolishes right-handers means it won't reduce his playing time down the road. Since he should still hit .300, draw plenty of walks, and play half his games at Great American Ballpark, he'll be a very valuable hitter in any league.
The one question with Alonso is position. He's not a good athlete and trials at third base in the past have failed, so the Reds likely intend on moving current first basemen Joey Votto to left field. Votto played 41 games there in the minors last season, and he's the better athlete of the two. Alonso's eye and approach are so advanced he could be ready for the majors as early as the middle of 2009. As a result, expect Votto to take some reps in the outfield next spring, and move there no later than the start of 2010.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/fea...rticleid=30544
Man, an .877 OPS against lefties is very mediocre and concerning.....
I wish more Reds players struggled to the tune of an .877 OPS against lefties.
He'll fit right inOriginally Posted by dougdirt
Yea, I didn't pay attention to the OBP and slug% in that line.
I guess that tells you that when Alonso does hit lefties, he hits them hard...he just doesn't do it that often, thus the low avg and decent/good slugging %.
Obviously his strike zone judgement doesn't suffer against lefties, thus the high OBP
Is that the general idea?
Well, it's still something to keep an eye on. If Alonso has an .877 OPS against lefties with the Reds we sure won't complain about it. But the fact that his OPS is so much lower against lefties than righties in college is not something to ignore IMO.
That said, I still LOVE the Alonso pick. Gordon Beckham will be perming his hair batting .250 in AAA when Alonso is a rookie tearing up MLB pitching in 2010.
While I admit the concerns about his ability to lefties are vastly overrated, an 877 OPS in NCAA baseball with it's aluminum bats and rosters that are 95% full of guys who will never step foot on a major league diamond is not even remotely the same as an 877 OPS in the majors.
The fact that his OPS nosedived 33% versus lefties (1309 overall, 877 versus lefties) certainly belongs on the radar as a legitimate concern. Not an overwhelming concern, but a legitimate one nonetheless.
it's tough to do stat splits in college. there's so few decent LHPers to begin with. what you have to focus upon is how a kid hangs in against the rare quality LHPer that he actually faces, and that's necessarily anecdotal. But it's where a good scout earns his paycheck.
I certainly hope that Alonso immediately becomes the Reds top prospect. heck, I hope that there are three or four guys in this draft who immediately eclipse Todd Frazier
I also wonder if his high OBP against lefties is due partially to the lack of quaility LHP in college baseball.
IIRC Alonso had no problems with lefties as a freshman and sophomore.
Considering that there are fewer lefties in college ball than in the professional circuit and that college seasons are much shorter than pro ones, I'm not going to get worked up over any single season split -- it's likely not statistically significant anyways. Given that his IsoD and IsoP were just fine, I wonder what his BABIP was...
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
THT came out with their draft review yesterday:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-draft-part-1/
They use some video stuff as part of the breakdown...here is what they ultimately concluded about Alonso:
Certainly, the Reds got a good player in Alonso, but I have Justin Smoak rated higher, and there are questions about what the Reds plan to do with Alonso since Joey Votto is currently occupying first base. However, that is a question to be answered in a year or two. Although I do have some questions about Alonso's fit in the Reds organization, he still qualifies as a good, safe pick, but not a pick with a huge upside.
If Stubbs is considered the Reds' top position prospect, then the Reds have a sorry farm system....
That being said, I think Alonso will serve 1 of 2 purposes for the Reds.
1. Unseats Votto @ 1B.
2. Brings us something very valuable via trade in 2+ years.
I'm sure some still wish we had taken Gordon Beckham, but Alonso was a good pick, IMO.
Stubbs isn't going to put up eye popping numbers, but his overall game is going to be good enough to be a solid player in the majors and that is someone that makes a solid prospect. Given his tools, he has upside as well. Make up your own mind on prospects (which you obviously do) and where they rank in the system to determine if the system is strong or not. You shouldn't base how you feel about 1 player determine how you feel about the strength of the system. BA thinks Stubbs is the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the system. You think he is like 15th. That should tell you all you need to know about how good off our system is.
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